Market icon
Economy·Housing·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?

Market icon
Economy·Housing·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?

1.155 - 1.165m 11.4%

1.165 - 1.175m 9%

1.135 - 1.145m 8%

1.125 - 1.135m 7%

Polymarket
NEW

1.155 - 1.165m 11.4%

1.165 - 1.175m 9%

1.135 - 1.145m 8%

1.125 - 1.135m 7%

Polymarket
NEW

<1.125m

$0 Vol.

18%

1.125 - 1.135m

$805 Vol.

7%

1.135 - 1.145m

$260 Vol.

8%

1.145 - 1.155m

$0 Vol.

31%

1.155 - 1.165m

$0 Vol.

11%

1.165 - 1.175m

$0 Vol.

18%

1.175 - 1.185m

$135 Vol.

37%

1.185 - 1.195m

$0 Vol.

34%

>1.195m

$248 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/20)Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (37.5%) to the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro area registering $1.175-1.185 million on April 1, with adjacent bins at 27.1% ($1.185-1.195 million) and 24.5% ($1.145-1.155 million), reflecting tight clustering around $1.18 million amid spring market momentum. February 2026 Redfin data showed San Francisco County median sale prices up 7.7% year-over-year to $1.5 million, single-family homes surging 22.7% to $2.0 million, driven by inventory declines exceeding 37% and overbidding at levels unseen since 2022. Despite February metro ZHVI near $1.116 million (down 2.3% YoY), accelerating transaction volume and luxury sales records signal upward pressure, with the March ZHVI release—due imminently—serving as the key catalyst.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (37.5%) to the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro area registering $1.175-1.185 million on April 1, with adjacent bins at 27.1% ($1.185-1.195 million) and 24.5% ($1.145-1.155 million), reflecting tight clustering around $1.18 million amid spring market momentum. February 2026 Redfin data showed San Francisco County median sale prices up 7.7% year-over-year to $1.5 million, single-family homes surging 22.7% to $2.0 million, driven by inventory declines exceeding 37% and overbidding at levels unseen since 2022. Despite February metro ZHVI near $1.116 million (down 2.3% YoY), accelerating transaction volume and luxury sales records signal upward pressure, with the March ZHVI release—due imminently—serving as the key catalyst.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/20)Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (37.5%) to the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro area registering $1.175-1.185 million on April 1, with adjacent bins at 27.1% ($1.185-1.195 million) and 24.5% ($1.145-1.155 million), reflecting tight clustering around $1.18 million amid spring market momentum. February 2026 Redfin data showed San Francisco County median sale prices up 7.7% year-over-year to $1.5 million, single-family homes surging 22.7% to $2.0 million, driven by inventory declines exceeding 37% and overbidding at levels unseen since 2022. Despite February metro ZHVI near $1.116 million (down 2.3% YoY), accelerating transaction volume and luxury sales records signal upward pressure, with the March ZHVI release—due imminently—serving as the key catalyst.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (37.5%) to the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro area registering $1.175-1.185 million on April 1, with adjacent bins at 27.1% ($1.185-1.195 million) and 24.5% ($1.145-1.155 million), reflecting tight clustering around $1.18 million amid spring market momentum. February 2026 Redfin data showed San Francisco County median sale prices up 7.7% year-over-year to $1.5 million, single-family homes surging 22.7% to $2.0 million, driven by inventory declines exceeding 37% and overbidding at levels unseen since 2022. Despite February metro ZHVI near $1.116 million (down 2.3% YoY), accelerating transaction volume and luxury sales records signal upward pressure, with the March ZHVI release—due imminently—serving as the key catalyst.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.175 - 1.185m" at 37%, followed by "1.185 - 1.195m" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?" is "1.175 - 1.185m" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.185 - 1.195m" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.