Market icon
Economy·Housing·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be on April 1?

Market icon
Economy·Housing·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be on April 1?

1.175 - 1.18m 33%

1.18 - 1.185m 20%

1.17 - 1.175m 14%

1.185 - 1.19m 10.5%

Polymarket
NEW

1.175 - 1.18m 33%

1.18 - 1.185m 20%

1.17 - 1.175m 14%

1.185 - 1.19m 10.5%

Polymarket
NEW

<1.17m

$578 Vol.

9%

1.17 - 1.175m

$765 Vol.

14%

1.175 - 1.18m

$381 Vol.

28%

1.18 - 1.185m

$194 Vol.

19%

1.185 - 1.19m

$464 Vol.

11%

1.19 - 1.195m

$466 Vol.

6%

1.195 - 1.2m

$85 Vol.

2%

>1.2m

$224 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/16)Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices the Parcl Labs median home value index for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro near $1.177 million on April 1, with implied probabilities led by 27.5% for $1.175-1.18m versus 19% for $1.18-1.185m and 14% for $1.17-1.175m—reflecting tight alignment to the latest daily sales price readings amid year-over-year softening of 1-5% in February Zillow ZHVI ($942K city typical) and Redfin median sales ($1.0M). Elevated 30-year mortgage rates near 6.8% and low transaction volume suppress momentum, while rising inventory provides mild downside protection. Resolution hinges on sparse late-March closings, with high-value sales as the pivotal differentiator in this razor-thin contest.

Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices the Parcl Labs median home value index for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro near $1.177 million on April 1, with implied probabilities led by 27.5% for $1.175-1.18m versus 19% for $1.18-1.185m and 14% for $1.17-1.175m—reflecting tight alignment to the latest daily sales price readings amid year-over-year softening of 1-5% in February Zillow ZHVI ($942K city typical) and Redfin median sales ($1.0M). Elevated 30-year mortgage rates near 6.8% and low transaction volume suppress momentum, while rising inventory provides mild downside protection. Resolution hinges on sparse late-March closings, with high-value sales as the pivotal differentiator in this razor-thin contest.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/16)Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices the Parcl Labs median home value index for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro near $1.177 million on April 1, with implied probabilities led by 27.5% for $1.175-1.18m versus 19% for $1.18-1.185m and 14% for $1.17-1.175m—reflecting tight alignment to the latest daily sales price readings amid year-over-year softening of 1-5% in February Zillow ZHVI ($942K city typical) and Redfin median sales ($1.0M). Elevated 30-year mortgage rates near 6.8% and low transaction volume suppress momentum, while rising inventory provides mild downside protection. Resolution hinges on sparse late-March closings, with high-value sales as the pivotal differentiator in this razor-thin contest.

Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices the Parcl Labs median home value index for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro near $1.177 million on April 1, with implied probabilities led by 27.5% for $1.175-1.18m versus 19% for $1.18-1.185m and 14% for $1.17-1.175m—reflecting tight alignment to the latest daily sales price readings amid year-over-year softening of 1-5% in February Zillow ZHVI ($942K city typical) and Redfin median sales ($1.0M). Elevated 30-year mortgage rates near 6.8% and low transaction volume suppress momentum, while rising inventory provides mild downside protection. Resolution hinges on sparse late-March closings, with high-value sales as the pivotal differentiator in this razor-thin contest.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.175 - 1.18m" at 28%, followed by "1.18 - 1.185m" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be on April 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be on April 1?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be on April 1?" is "1.175 - 1.18m" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.18 - 1.185m" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.