The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, averaging 6.38% as of March 26 per Freddie Mac data, has climbed from 6.00% earlier in the month amid rising 10-year Treasury yields reaching 4.44%, reflecting trader concerns over persistent inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in February CPI despite the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 meeting. Polymarket traders' implied probabilities for hitting specific 2026 thresholds hinge on the monetary policy path, with consensus anticipating gradual Fed rate cuts if inflation cools further, though recent yield spikes signal caution. Key catalysts include March CPI release on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, alongside housing demand and economic growth metrics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
$43,345 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 7.00%
48%
↑ 6.75%
49%
↑ 6.50%
80%
↓ 5.90%
47%
↓ 5.70%
48%
↓ 5.50%
49%
$43,345 Vol.
↑ 7.00%
$13 Vol.
48%
↑ 6.75%
$0 Vol.
49%
↑ 6.50%
$6,451 Vol.
80%
↓ 5.90%
$0 Vol.
47%
↓ 5.70%
$6,769 Vol.
48%
↓ 5.50%
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, averaging 6.38% as of March 26 per Freddie Mac data, has climbed from 6.00% earlier in the month amid rising 10-year Treasury yields reaching 4.44%, reflecting trader concerns over persistent inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in February CPI despite the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 meeting. Polymarket traders' implied probabilities for hitting specific 2026 thresholds hinge on the monetary policy path, with consensus anticipating gradual Fed rate cuts if inflation cools further, though recent yield spikes signal caution. Key catalysts include March CPI release on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, alongside housing demand and economic growth metrics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 3, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$43,345End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, averaging 6.38% as of March 26 per Freddie Mac data, has climbed from 6.00% earlier in the month amid rising 10-year Treasury yields reaching 4.44%, reflecting trader concerns over persistent inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in February CPI despite the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 meeting. Polymarket traders' implied probabilities for hitting specific 2026 thresholds hinge on the monetary policy path, with consensus anticipating gradual Fed rate cuts if inflation cools further, though recent yield spikes signal caution. Key catalysts include March CPI release on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, alongside housing demand and economic growth metrics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Volume
$43,345End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, averaging 6.38% as of March 26 per Freddie Mac data, has climbed from 6.00% earlier in the month amid rising 10-year Treasury yields reaching 4.44%, reflecting trader concerns over persistent inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in February CPI despite the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 meeting. Polymarket traders' implied probabilities for hitting specific 2026 thresholds hinge on the monetary policy path, with consensus anticipating gradual Fed rate cuts if inflation cools further, though recent yield spikes signal caution. Key catalysts include March CPI release on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, alongside housing demand and economic growth metrics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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