Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel's potential strikes on Iran amid Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea, have driven a sharp risk premium into crude oil futures, positioning the $90+ outcome at 66.5% implied probability for March WTI (CL) settlement. Recent EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories drawing down by 1.6 million barrels last week—far exceeding expectations—amid steady demand and OPEC+ adherence to voluntary production cuts extended through Q1 2025. Brent crude benchmark surpassing $75/bbl reinforces trader consensus on tightening supply-demand balance, though China's uneven stimulus response tempers upside. Watch the December 5 OPEC+ meeting and any Iran conflict escalation for volatility ahead of March expiry.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$90+ 67%
$85-$90 19%
$80-$85 6.6%
$75-$80 3.3%
$882,190 Vol.
$882,190 Vol.
<$60
<1%
$60-$65
<1%
$65-$70
1%
$70-$75
2%
$75-$80
3%
$80-$85
7%
$85-$90
19%
$90+
67%
$90+ 67%
$85-$90 19%
$80-$85 6.6%
$75-$80 3.3%
$882,190 Vol.
$882,190 Vol.
<$60
<1%
$60-$65
<1%
$65-$70
1%
$70-$75
2%
$75-$80
3%
$80-$85
7%
$85-$90
19%
$90+
67%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel's potential strikes on Iran amid Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea, have driven a sharp risk premium into crude oil futures, positioning the $90+ outcome at 66.5% implied probability for March WTI (CL) settlement. Recent EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories drawing down by 1.6 million barrels last week—far exceeding expectations—amid steady demand and OPEC+ adherence to voluntary production cuts extended through Q1 2025. Brent crude benchmark surpassing $75/bbl reinforces trader consensus on tightening supply-demand balance, though China's uneven stimulus response tempers upside. Watch the December 5 OPEC+ meeting and any Iran conflict escalation for volatility ahead of March expiry.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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