Polymarket traders maintain low implied probabilities for an AI bubble burst by late 2026, driven by stringent resolution criteria requiring at least three severe shocks—such as NVIDIA stock dropping 50% from its all-time high, SOXX ETF falling 40%, OpenAI bankruptcy or acquisition, H100 rental prices crashing below $1 per day, or major supplier collapses—within a single 90-day window, none of which have materialized despite warnings. Recent March developments, including Benchmark's Bill Gurley forecasting an imminent reset and Fortune reports of a partial burst in smaller AI stocks, contrast with hyperscalers' $650 billion capex commitments and record $300 billion Q1 AI funding, fueling infrastructure expansion amid Oracle's 30,000 AI-reallocated layoffs. Upcoming Q2 earnings from NVIDIA and Big Tech could shift sentiment if capex falters or benchmarks weaken.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,550,613 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
17%
$2,550,613 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$1,962,618 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Polymarket traders maintain low implied probabilities for an AI bubble burst by late 2026, driven by stringent resolution criteria requiring at least three severe shocks—such as NVIDIA stock dropping 50% from its all-time high, SOXX ETF falling 40%, OpenAI bankruptcy or acquisition, H100 rental prices crashing below $1 per day, or major supplier collapses—within a single 90-day window, none of which have materialized despite warnings. Recent March developments, including Benchmark's Bill Gurley forecasting an imminent reset and Fortune reports of a partial burst in smaller AI stocks, contrast with hyperscalers' $650 billion capex commitments and record $300 billion Q1 AI funding, fueling infrastructure expansion amid Oracle's 30,000 AI-reallocated layoffs. Upcoming Q2 earnings from NVIDIA and Big Tech could shift sentiment if capex falters or benchmarks weaken.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ET
Volume
$2,550,613End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Polymarket traders maintain low implied probabilities for an AI bubble burst by late 2026, driven by stringent resolution criteria requiring at least three severe shocks—such as NVIDIA stock dropping 50% from its all-time high, SOXX ETF falling 40%, OpenAI bankruptcy or acquisition, H100 rental prices crashing below $1 per day, or major supplier collapses—within a single 90-day window, none of which have materialized despite warnings. Recent March developments, including Benchmark's Bill Gurley forecasting an imminent reset and Fortune reports of a partial burst in smaller AI stocks, contrast with hyperscalers' $650 billion capex commitments and record $300 billion Q1 AI funding, fueling infrastructure expansion amid Oracle's 30,000 AI-reallocated layoffs. Upcoming Q2 earnings from NVIDIA and Big Tech could shift sentiment if capex falters or benchmarks weaken.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,550,613End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders maintain low implied probabilities for an AI bubble burst by late 2026, driven by stringent resolution criteria requiring at least three severe shocks—such as NVIDIA stock dropping 50% from its all-time high, SOXX ETF falling 40%, OpenAI bankruptcy or acquisition, H100 rental prices crashing below $1 per day, or major supplier collapses—within a single 90-day window, none of which have materialized despite warnings. Recent March developments, including Benchmark's Bill Gurley forecasting an imminent reset and Fortune reports of a partial burst in smaller AI stocks, contrast with hyperscalers' $650 billion capex commitments and record $300 billion Q1 AI funding, fueling infrastructure expansion amid Oracle's 30,000 AI-reallocated layoffs. Upcoming Q2 earnings from NVIDIA and Big Tech could shift sentiment if capex falters or benchmarks weaken.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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