Polymarket traders price a 59.5% implied probability for WTI Crude Oil (CL) settling above $84 in June, driven by persistent supply constraints from OPEC+ production cuts extended through Q3 and recent U.S. inventory draws reported in the latest EIA data, which showed a 4.2 million barrel decline exceeding expectations. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including Israel-Hamas hostilities and potential Iran disruptions, have bolstered risk premiums, pushing front-month prices toward $80 per barrel amid steady U.S. drilling activity but slowing output growth. Counterbalancing demand worries from China's uneven recovery, summer driving season looms as an upside catalyst, with next week's EIA report and OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting key to sentiment shifts. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game bets on tighter balances versus historical base rates around $75-85 summer settlements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 60%
$77-$84 14%
$70-$77 10.4%
$63-$70 9%
$84,741 Vol.
$84,741 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<$42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
4%
$56-$63
6%
$63-$70
9%
$70-$77
10%
$77-$84
14%
>$84
60%
>$84 60%
$77-$84 14%
$70-$77 10.4%
$63-$70 9%
$84,741 Vol.
$84,741 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<$42
$3,457 Vol.
1%
$42-$49
$2,772 Vol.
1%
$49-$56
$4,146 Vol.
4%
$56-$63
$3,407 Vol.
6%
$63-$70
$15,860 Vol.
9%
$70-$77
$4,296 Vol.
10%
$77-$84
$7,093 Vol.
14%
>$84
$43,710 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Polymarket traders price a 59.5% implied probability for WTI Crude Oil (CL) settling above $84 in June, driven by persistent supply constraints from OPEC+ production cuts extended through Q3 and recent U.S. inventory draws reported in the latest EIA data, which showed a 4.2 million barrel decline exceeding expectations. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including Israel-Hamas hostilities and potential Iran disruptions, have bolstered risk premiums, pushing front-month prices toward $80 per barrel amid steady U.S. drilling activity but slowing output growth. Counterbalancing demand worries from China's uneven recovery, summer driving season looms as an upside catalyst, with next week's EIA report and OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting key to sentiment shifts. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game bets on tighter balances versus historical base rates around $75-85 summer settlements.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Volume
$84,741End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Polymarket traders price a 59.5% implied probability for WTI Crude Oil (CL) settling above $84 in June, driven by persistent supply constraints from OPEC+ production cuts extended through Q3 and recent U.S. inventory draws reported in the latest EIA data, which showed a 4.2 million barrel decline exceeding expectations. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including Israel-Hamas hostilities and potential Iran disruptions, have bolstered risk premiums, pushing front-month prices toward $80 per barrel amid steady U.S. drilling activity but slowing output growth. Counterbalancing demand worries from China's uneven recovery, summer driving season looms as an upside catalyst, with next week's EIA report and OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting key to sentiment shifts. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game bets on tighter balances versus historical base rates around $75-85 summer settlements.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$84,741End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 59.5% implied probability for WTI Crude Oil (CL) settling above $84 in June, driven by persistent supply constraints from OPEC+ production cuts extended through Q3 and recent U.S. inventory draws reported in the latest EIA data, which showed a 4.2 million barrel decline exceeding expectations. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including Israel-Hamas hostilities and potential Iran disruptions, have bolstered risk premiums, pushing front-month prices toward $80 per barrel amid steady U.S. drilling activity but slowing output growth. Counterbalancing demand worries from China's uneven recovery, summer driving season looms as an upside catalyst, with next week's EIA report and OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting key to sentiment shifts. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game bets on tighter balances versus historical base rates around $75-85 summer settlements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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