Recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire developments and expectations for gradual Strait of Hormuz reopening have eased geopolitical risk premiums, driving WTI crude futures lower to the low-$80 area in mid-June and shifting near-term settlement probabilities. With the June contract nearing expiration, trader sentiment remains finely balanced between the $70–77 and $77–84 ranges as markets weigh potential supply normalization against still-elevated inventories and softer demand signals. These closely matched outcomes reflect uncertainty over the pace of production restarts and any residual disruptions, while lower-probability tails capture risks of sharper rebounds or further downside if macro data deteriorates. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket continues to price in a contained trading range absent major new catalysts before settlement.