Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, intensified by President Trump's vows for prolonged military strikes, have driven WTI crude oil futures above $111 per barrel—the highest since 2022—infusing a steep geopolitical risk premium and extreme backwardation, with May contracts trading $16 above June delivery. Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 61% implied probability for June CL settlement exceeding $84, buoyed by persistent Hormuz Strait disruption fears and supply vulnerability, while the $77-$84 bin holds 14% amid forecasts like EIA's near-term Brent above $95/b before easing. Recent EIA data showed a 5.5 million barrel inventory build, yet bullish sentiment dominates; OPEC+'s Sunday output decision looms as a key catalyst potentially easing or tightening the market-implied path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual será o preço do Petróleo Bruto (CL) em junho?
Qual será o preço do Petróleo Bruto (CL) em junho?
>US$84 61%
$77-$84 14%
$70-$77 12.0%
$63-$70 4.6%
$95,137 Vol.
$95,137 Vol.
<$42
2%
$42-$49
2%
$49-$56
3%
$56-$63
4%
$63-$70
5%
$70-$77
12%
$77-$84
14%
>US$84
61%
>US$84 61%
$77-$84 14%
$70-$77 12.0%
$63-$70 4.6%
$95,137 Vol.
$95,137 Vol.
<$42
2%
$42-$49
2%
$49-$56
3%
$56-$63
4%
$63-$70
5%
$70-$77
12%
$77-$84
14%
>US$84
61%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, intensified by President Trump's vows for prolonged military strikes, have driven WTI crude oil futures above $111 per barrel—the highest since 2022—infusing a steep geopolitical risk premium and extreme backwardation, with May contracts trading $16 above June delivery. Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 61% implied probability for June CL settlement exceeding $84, buoyed by persistent Hormuz Strait disruption fears and supply vulnerability, while the $77-$84 bin holds 14% amid forecasts like EIA's near-term Brent above $95/b before easing. Recent EIA data showed a 5.5 million barrel inventory build, yet bullish sentiment dominates; OPEC+'s Sunday output decision looms as a key catalyst potentially easing or tightening the market-implied path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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