Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly risks around the Strait of Hormuz and fears of broader Iran conflict, have driven WTI crude oil prices to multi-year highs above $112 per barrel this week—up over 11% in a single session and roughly doubled year-to-date—infusing the futures curve with a hefty risk premium. Polymarket traders reflect this sentiment with a 64.5% implied probability for June 2026 settlement above $84, consistent with the June CLM6 contract trading near $90 amid backwardation signals. Despite soft global demand outlooks from EIA projecting sub-$80/bbl in Q3 2026 and ample non-OPEC supply growth, hawkish U.S. policy rhetoric under Trump sustains elevated pricing; watch OPEC+ output decisions and sanctions updates for near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual será o preço do Petróleo Bruto (CL) em junho?
Qual será o preço do Petróleo Bruto (CL) em junho?
>US$84 64%
$77-$84 13%
$70-$77 11.4%
$63-$70 6.3%
$96,476 Vol.
$96,476 Vol.
<$42
2%
$42-$49
2%
$49-$56
3%
$56-$63
5%
$63-$70
6%
$70-$77
11%
$77-$84
13%
>US$84
64%
>US$84 64%
$77-$84 13%
$70-$77 11.4%
$63-$70 6.3%
$96,476 Vol.
$96,476 Vol.
<$42
2%
$42-$49
2%
$49-$56
3%
$56-$63
5%
$63-$70
6%
$70-$77
11%
$77-$84
13%
>US$84
64%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly risks around the Strait of Hormuz and fears of broader Iran conflict, have driven WTI crude oil prices to multi-year highs above $112 per barrel this week—up over 11% in a single session and roughly doubled year-to-date—infusing the futures curve with a hefty risk premium. Polymarket traders reflect this sentiment with a 64.5% implied probability for June 2026 settlement above $84, consistent with the June CLM6 contract trading near $90 amid backwardation signals. Despite soft global demand outlooks from EIA projecting sub-$80/bbl in Q3 2026 and ample non-OPEC supply growth, hawkish U.S. policy rhetoric under Trump sustains elevated pricing; watch OPEC+ output decisions and sanctions updates for near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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