Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price surges, alongside May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 that exceeded forecasts, has driven the 59.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. The labor market remains resilient with unemployment holding at 4.3%, while the FOMC maintains the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and recent minutes highlight risks of policy firming if inflation persists above the 2% objective. This contrasts with the March dot plot’s expectation of easing, shifting trader consensus toward a higher rate path as fresh data challenges prior cut projections. The upcoming May CPI release and June FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could further influence these odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,536,241 거래량
$1,536,241 거래량
2026.12.09
예
$1,536,241 거래량
$1,536,241 거래량
2026.12.09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price surges, alongside May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 that exceeded forecasts, has driven the 59.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. The labor market remains resilient with unemployment holding at 4.3%, while the FOMC maintains the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and recent minutes highlight risks of policy firming if inflation persists above the 2% objective. This contrasts with the March dot plot’s expectation of easing, shifting trader consensus toward a higher rate path as fresh data challenges prior cut projections. The upcoming May CPI release and June FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could further influence these odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
거래량
$1,536,241종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price surges, alongside May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 that exceeded forecasts, has driven the 59.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. The labor market remains resilient with unemployment holding at 4.3%, while the FOMC maintains the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and recent minutes highlight risks of policy firming if inflation persists above the 2% objective. This contrasts with the March dot plot’s expectation of easing, shifting trader consensus toward a higher rate path as fresh data challenges prior cut projections. The upcoming May CPI release and June FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could further influence these odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$1,536,241종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price surges, alongside May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 that exceeded forecasts, has driven the 59.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. The labor market remains resilient with unemployment holding at 4.3%, while the FOMC maintains the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and recent minutes highlight risks of policy firming if inflation persists above the 2% objective. This contrasts with the March dot plot’s expectation of easing, shifting trader consensus toward a higher rate path as fresh data challenges prior cut projections. The upcoming May CPI release and June FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could further influence these odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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