Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%, have shifted trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path in 2026. The FOMC's April decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% reflected this balance, with the March dot plot still centering on one possible 25 basis point cut later in the year. Recent hotter CPI and core PCE prints have lifted the implied probability of a hike before year-end in futures markets, yet the 68.5% consensus against a rate increase this year stems from the Fed's data-dependent stance and the absence of decisive overheating signals. Key catalysts ahead include the June FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases that could tip the balance if price pressures accelerate further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,109,018 Vol.
$1,109,018 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
$1,109,018 Vol.
$1,109,018 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%, have shifted trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path in 2026. The FOMC's April decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% reflected this balance, with the March dot plot still centering on one possible 25 basis point cut later in the year. Recent hotter CPI and core PCE prints have lifted the implied probability of a hike before year-end in futures markets, yet the 68.5% consensus against a rate increase this year stems from the Fed's data-dependent stance and the absence of decisive overheating signals. Key catalysts ahead include the June FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases that could tip the balance if price pressures accelerate further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,109,018End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%, have shifted trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path in 2026. The FOMC's April decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% reflected this balance, with the March dot plot still centering on one possible 25 basis point cut later in the year. Recent hotter CPI and core PCE prints have lifted the implied probability of a hike before year-end in futures markets, yet the 68.5% consensus against a rate increase this year stems from the Fed's data-dependent stance and the absence of decisive overheating signals. Key catalysts ahead include the June FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases that could tip the balance if price pressures accelerate further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,109,018End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%, have shifted trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path in 2026. The FOMC's April decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% reflected this balance, with the March dot plot still centering on one possible 25 basis point cut later in the year. Recent hotter CPI and core PCE prints have lifted the implied probability of a hike before year-end in futures markets, yet the 68.5% consensus against a rate increase this year stems from the Fed's data-dependent stance and the absence of decisive overheating signals. Key catalysts ahead include the June FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases that could tip the balance if price pressures accelerate further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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