Stronger-than-expected May 2026 nonfarm payrolls of 172,000, well above forecasts, combined with April CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since 2023 and fueled by an energy price spike—have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 59% for Yes. These data points have reinforced trader consensus that persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience may delay or preclude further easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. Recent FOMC communications and minutes underscore caution around the inflation trajectory, with the May CPI release due June 10 and the June 16-17 policy meeting serving as near-term catalysts that could further shape rate path expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,535,814 Vol.
$1,535,814 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$1,535,814 Vol.
$1,535,814 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Stronger-than-expected May 2026 nonfarm payrolls of 172,000, well above forecasts, combined with April CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since 2023 and fueled by an energy price spike—have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 59% for Yes. These data points have reinforced trader consensus that persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience may delay or preclude further easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. Recent FOMC communications and minutes underscore caution around the inflation trajectory, with the May CPI release due June 10 and the June 16-17 policy meeting serving as near-term catalysts that could further shape rate path expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,535,814Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Stronger-than-expected May 2026 nonfarm payrolls of 172,000, well above forecasts, combined with April CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since 2023 and fueled by an energy price spike—have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 59% for Yes. These data points have reinforced trader consensus that persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience may delay or preclude further easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. Recent FOMC communications and minutes underscore caution around the inflation trajectory, with the May CPI release due June 10 and the June 16-17 policy meeting serving as near-term catalysts that could further shape rate path expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,535,814Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stronger-than-expected May 2026 nonfarm payrolls of 172,000, well above forecasts, combined with April CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since 2023 and fueled by an energy price spike—have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 59% for Yes. These data points have reinforced trader consensus that persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience may delay or preclude further easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. Recent FOMC communications and minutes underscore caution around the inflation trajectory, with the May CPI release due June 10 and the June 16-17 policy meeting serving as near-term catalysts that could further shape rate path expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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