Recent hotter-than-expected inflation and labor-market data have lifted the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 60.5%. April 2026 CPI printed at 3.8% year-over-year while May nonfarm payrolls came in at 172,000, well above consensus, reinforcing a resilient economy and keeping the policy rate anchored at the 3.50–3.75% target range. Futures markets now embed a modest upward drift in the funds rate toward 3.8% by year-end, reflecting trader consensus that persistent price pressures above the 2% target may prompt tightening rather than the previously anticipated easing. The June 10 CPI release and June 16–17 FOMC meeting remain the nearest catalysts that could further shift the data-dependent path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,529,664 Vol.
$1,529,664 Vol.
Ja
$1,529,664 Vol.
$1,529,664 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation and labor-market data have lifted the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 60.5%. April 2026 CPI printed at 3.8% year-over-year while May nonfarm payrolls came in at 172,000, well above consensus, reinforcing a resilient economy and keeping the policy rate anchored at the 3.50–3.75% target range. Futures markets now embed a modest upward drift in the funds rate toward 3.8% by year-end, reflecting trader consensus that persistent price pressures above the 2% target may prompt tightening rather than the previously anticipated easing. The June 10 CPI release and June 16–17 FOMC meeting remain the nearest catalysts that could further shift the data-dependent path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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