Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 15, 2026, anchoring the overwhelming trader consensus around the May 15–22 window. Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as his successor on May 13 cleared the final procedural hurdle, aligning with the central bank’s standard transition timeline and historical precedent for chairs stepping down at term end while often retaining board seats. Powell has publicly stated his intent to depart the chairmanship on schedule yet remain a governor through at least early 2028, absent any sudden resignation or removal. Late-breaking developments that could still shift the narrow remaining probability include an unforeseen health issue, abrupt policy conflict prompting earlier exit, or Senate reconsideration of the successor nomination.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
May 15–22 98.6%
May 23–29 <1%
June 27–July 3 <1%
After July 3 <1%
$276,727 Vol.
$276,727 Vol.
Jul 3, 2026
May 15–22
99%
May 23–29
1%
May 30–June 5
<1%
June 6–12
<1%
June 13–19
<1%
June 20–26
<1%
June 27–July 3
<1%
After July 3
<1%
May 15–22 98.6%
May 23–29 <1%
June 27–July 3 <1%
After July 3 <1%
$276,727 Vol.
$276,727 Vol.
Jul 3, 2026
May 15–22
$120,136 Vol.
99%
May 23–29
$23,069 Vol.
1%
May 30–June 5
$19,197 Vol.
<1%
June 6–12
$12,264 Vol.
<1%
June 13–19
$11,140 Vol.
<1%
June 20–26
$14,064 Vol.
<1%
June 27–July 3
$17,052 Vol.
<1%
After July 3
$22,853 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 15, 2026, anchoring the overwhelming trader consensus around the May 15–22 window. Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as his successor on May 13 cleared the final procedural hurdle, aligning with the central bank’s standard transition timeline and historical precedent for chairs stepping down at term end while often retaining board seats. Powell has publicly stated his intent to depart the chairmanship on schedule yet remain a governor through at least early 2028, absent any sudden resignation or removal. Late-breaking developments that could still shift the narrow remaining probability include an unforeseen health issue, abrupt policy conflict prompting earlier exit, or Senate reconsideration of the successor nomination.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$276,727End Date
Jul 3, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 15, 2026, anchoring the overwhelming trader consensus around the May 15–22 window. Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as his successor on May 13 cleared the final procedural hurdle, aligning with the central bank’s standard transition timeline and historical precedent for chairs stepping down at term end while often retaining board seats. Powell has publicly stated his intent to depart the chairmanship on schedule yet remain a governor through at least early 2028, absent any sudden resignation or removal. Late-breaking developments that could still shift the narrow remaining probability include an unforeseen health issue, abrupt policy conflict prompting earlier exit, or Senate reconsideration of the successor nomination.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$276,727End Date
Jul 3, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 15, 2026, anchoring the overwhelming trader consensus around the May 15–22 window. Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as his successor on May 13 cleared the final procedural hurdle, aligning with the central bank’s standard transition timeline and historical precedent for chairs stepping down at term end while often retaining board seats. Powell has publicly stated his intent to depart the chairmanship on schedule yet remain a governor through at least early 2028, absent any sudden resignation or removal. Late-breaking developments that could still shift the narrow remaining probability include an unforeseen health issue, abrupt policy conflict prompting earlier exit, or Senate reconsideration of the successor nomination.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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