Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a 87.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% following its March 18 hold—the second consecutive pause amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%. Today's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000, rebounding from February's decline with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the resilient labor market narrative. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but Middle East tensions have spiked oil toward $100, fueling inflation reacceleration fears echoed in Chair Powell's recent "wait-and-see" remarks on energy shocks. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next key test, with futures pricing near-certainty for no change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 88%
Pause–Pause–Cut 7%
Other 4.9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.3%
$719,074 Vol.
$719,074 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
88%
Pause–Pause–Cut
7%
Other
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 88%
Pause–Pause–Cut 7%
Other 4.9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.3%
$719,074 Vol.
$719,074 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$21,014 Vol.
88%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$11,282 Vol.
7%
Other
$211,071 Vol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$345,747 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$129,960 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a 87.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% following its March 18 hold—the second consecutive pause amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%. Today's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000, rebounding from February's decline with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the resilient labor market narrative. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but Middle East tensions have spiked oil toward $100, fueling inflation reacceleration fears echoed in Chair Powell's recent "wait-and-see" remarks on energy shocks. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next key test, with futures pricing near-certainty for no change.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$719,074End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a 87.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% following its March 18 hold—the second consecutive pause amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%. Today's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000, rebounding from February's decline with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the resilient labor market narrative. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but Middle East tensions have spiked oil toward $100, fueling inflation reacceleration fears echoed in Chair Powell's recent "wait-and-see" remarks on energy shocks. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next key test, with futures pricing near-certainty for no change.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$719,074End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a 87.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% following its March 18 hold—the second consecutive pause amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%. Today's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000, rebounding from February's decline with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the resilient labor market narrative. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but Middle East tensions have spiked oil toward $100, fueling inflation reacceleration fears echoed in Chair Powell's recent "wait-and-see" remarks on energy shocks. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next key test, with futures pricing near-certainty for no change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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