Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 94.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rates at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting steady decisions at the prior March 17-18 and April 28-29 gatherings where the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning stems from persistent inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, alongside resilient GDP growth projected at 2.4% for 2026 and low unemployment around 4.4%, diminishing rate-cut urgency despite some internal dissent. Upcoming April CPI data on May 12 and the June 16-17 meeting could challenge this if softer inflation or labor weakness emerges, potentially reviving cut expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 95%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.9%
Other 1.6%
$1,036,816 Vol.
$1,036,816 Vol.
Pause–Pause–Pause
95%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Other
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause 95%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.9%
Other 1.6%
$1,036,816 Vol.
$1,036,816 Vol.
Pause–Pause–Pause
95%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Other
2%
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 94.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rates at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting steady decisions at the prior March 17-18 and April 28-29 gatherings where the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning stems from persistent inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, alongside resilient GDP growth projected at 2.4% for 2026 and low unemployment around 4.4%, diminishing rate-cut urgency despite some internal dissent. Upcoming April CPI data on May 12 and the June 16-17 meeting could challenge this if softer inflation or labor weakness emerges, potentially reviving cut expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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