Trader consensus clusters tightly around 55 yes votes at 30% and 58 at 27%, with no vote by December 31 or withdrawal at 27%, reflecting a slim Republican Senate majority of approximately 53 seats that offers limited margin for defections on Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve chair. Recent disclosures of Warsh's $131 million fortune, including over 30 crypto investments requiring divestment, have intensified scrutiny from Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren and potential GOP holdouts, while Senate Democrats' failed push over the past 48 hours to delay next week's April 21 confirmation hearing underscores procedural tensions. The hearing outcome could tip balances, with bipartisan concerns over financial ties and Fed independence keeping the race competitive amid Warsh's hawkish monetary policy views.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn 27.2%
58 26.7%
≤49 22.4%
60+ 20%
$63,380 Vol.
$63,380 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
≤49
22%
50
4%
51
22%
52
8%
53
8%
54
16%
55
30%
56
2%
57
10%
58
27%
59
1%
60+
22%
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn
27%
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn 27.2%
58 26.7%
≤49 22.4%
60+ 20%
$63,380 Vol.
$63,380 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
≤49
$20,988 Vol.
22%
50
$0 Vol.
4%
51
$226 Vol.
22%
52
$485 Vol.
8%
53
$221 Vol.
8%
54
$233 Vol.
16%
55
$0 Vol.
30%
56
$52 Vol.
2%
57
$0 Vol.
10%
58
$0 Vol.
27%
59
$388 Vol.
1%
60+
$40,786 Vol.
22%
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn
$0 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 55 yes votes at 30% and 58 at 27%, with no vote by December 31 or withdrawal at 27%, reflecting a slim Republican Senate majority of approximately 53 seats that offers limited margin for defections on Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve chair. Recent disclosures of Warsh's $131 million fortune, including over 30 crypto investments requiring divestment, have intensified scrutiny from Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren and potential GOP holdouts, while Senate Democrats' failed push over the past 48 hours to delay next week's April 21 confirmation hearing underscores procedural tensions. The hearing outcome could tip balances, with bipartisan concerns over financial ties and Fed independence keeping the race competitive amid Warsh's hawkish monetary policy views.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$63,380End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 55 yes votes at 30% and 58 at 27%, with no vote by December 31 or withdrawal at 27%, reflecting a slim Republican Senate majority of approximately 53 seats that offers limited margin for defections on Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve chair. Recent disclosures of Warsh's $131 million fortune, including over 30 crypto investments requiring divestment, have intensified scrutiny from Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren and potential GOP holdouts, while Senate Democrats' failed push over the past 48 hours to delay next week's April 21 confirmation hearing underscores procedural tensions. The hearing outcome could tip balances, with bipartisan concerns over financial ties and Fed independence keeping the race competitive amid Warsh's hawkish monetary policy views.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$63,380End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 55 yes votes at 30% and 58 at 27%, with no vote by December 31 or withdrawal at 27%, reflecting a slim Republican Senate majority of approximately 53 seats that offers limited margin for defections on Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve chair. Recent disclosures of Warsh's $131 million fortune, including over 30 crypto investments requiring divestment, have intensified scrutiny from Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren and potential GOP holdouts, while Senate Democrats' failed push over the past 48 hours to delay next week's April 21 confirmation hearing underscores procedural tensions. The hearing outcome could tip balances, with bipartisan concerns over financial ties and Fed independence keeping the race competitive amid Warsh's hawkish monetary policy views.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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