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How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

Market icon

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

60+ 26%

51 10%

53 8%

52 8%

Polymarket

$63,376 Vol.

60+ 26%

51 10%

53 8%

52 8%

Polymarket

$63,376 Vol.

≤49

$20,930 Vol.

9%

50

$472 Vol.

5%

51

$209 Vol.

10%

52

$465 Vol.

8%

53

$177 Vol.

8%

54

$122 Vol.

5%

55

$116 Vol.

3%

56

$42 Vol.

4%

57

$42 Vol.

4%

58

$42 Vol.

4%

59

$378 Vol.

3%

60+

$40,297 Vol.

29%

No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn

$83 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.

If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.

Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.

The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$63,376
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "60+" at 28%, followed by "≤49" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?" has generated $63.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?" is "60+" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "≤49" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.