Democrat Analilia Mejia's commanding lead in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election, triggered by Mikie Sherrill's resignation after her gubernatorial win, has solidified trader consensus around a 20-25% margin of victory at 78.5% implied probability. With over 95% of votes counted as of April 17, Mejia holds a roughly 19-point edge over Republican Joe Hathaway, reflecting the district's Democratic tilt—Sherrill won by 15 points in 2024—bolstered by pre-election polls showing Mejia up 17 points in March and progressive endorsements from figures like Sanders and AOC. Narrower margins in Jewish-heavy towns like Livingston and Millburn, amid concerns over Mejia's Israel stance, account for the 19% pricing on under 20%, with final certification pending amid outstanding absentee and provisional ballots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMejia 20-25% 78%
Mejia <20% 19%
Mejia 25-30% <1%
Other <1%
$16,803 Vol.
$16,803 Vol.
Apr 16, 2026
Mejia 40%+
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
1%
Mejia 20-25%
78%
Mejia <20%
19%
Other
<1%
Mejia 20-25% 78%
Mejia <20% 19%
Mejia 25-30% <1%
Other <1%
$16,803 Vol.
$16,803 Vol.
Apr 16, 2026
Mejia 40%+
$875 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
$5,386 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
$2,282 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
$2,405 Vol.
1%
Mejia 20-25%
$2,704 Vol.
78%
Mejia <20%
$2,422 Vol.
19%
Other
$729 Vol.
<1%
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Democrat Analilia Mejia's commanding lead in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election, triggered by Mikie Sherrill's resignation after her gubernatorial win, has solidified trader consensus around a 20-25% margin of victory at 78.5% implied probability. With over 95% of votes counted as of April 17, Mejia holds a roughly 19-point edge over Republican Joe Hathaway, reflecting the district's Democratic tilt—Sherrill won by 15 points in 2024—bolstered by pre-election polls showing Mejia up 17 points in March and progressive endorsements from figures like Sanders and AOC. Narrower margins in Jewish-heavy towns like Livingston and Millburn, amid concerns over Mejia's Israel stance, account for the 19% pricing on under 20%, with final certification pending amid outstanding absentee and provisional ballots.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Volume
$16,803End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Democrat Analilia Mejia's commanding lead in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election, triggered by Mikie Sherrill's resignation after her gubernatorial win, has solidified trader consensus around a 20-25% margin of victory at 78.5% implied probability. With over 95% of votes counted as of April 17, Mejia holds a roughly 19-point edge over Republican Joe Hathaway, reflecting the district's Democratic tilt—Sherrill won by 15 points in 2024—bolstered by pre-election polls showing Mejia up 17 points in March and progressive endorsements from figures like Sanders and AOC. Narrower margins in Jewish-heavy towns like Livingston and Millburn, amid concerns over Mejia's Israel stance, account for the 19% pricing on under 20%, with final certification pending amid outstanding absentee and provisional ballots.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$16,803End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democrat Analilia Mejia's commanding lead in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election, triggered by Mikie Sherrill's resignation after her gubernatorial win, has solidified trader consensus around a 20-25% margin of victory at 78.5% implied probability. With over 95% of votes counted as of April 17, Mejia holds a roughly 19-point edge over Republican Joe Hathaway, reflecting the district's Democratic tilt—Sherrill won by 15 points in 2024—bolstered by pre-election polls showing Mejia up 17 points in March and progressive endorsements from figures like Sanders and AOC. Narrower margins in Jewish-heavy towns like Livingston and Millburn, amid concerns over Mejia's Israel stance, account for the 19% pricing on under 20%, with final certification pending amid outstanding absentee and provisional ballots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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