In New Jersey's 11th Congressional District House race, trader consensus strongly backs the Democratic incumbent Rep. Mikie Sherrill at 89.5% implied probability, driven by her decisive election night lead of 56% to 42% over Republican Rick Zimmer with over 95% of votes tallied as of November 6. Pre-election polls from aggregators like FiveThirtyEight showed Sherrill ahead by 10-15 points in this moderately competitive district, reflecting her incumbency advantage, strong fundraising, and appeal to independents. Major outlets including AP and NBC called the race for Sherrill, with no outstanding absentee or provisional ballots threatening the margin; markets await formal certification but price in near-certainty absent extraordinary reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNJ-11 House Election Winner
NJ-11 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
10%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,347 Vol.
90%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In New Jersey's 11th Congressional District House race, trader consensus strongly backs the Democratic incumbent Rep. Mikie Sherrill at 89.5% implied probability, driven by her decisive election night lead of 56% to 42% over Republican Rick Zimmer with over 95% of votes tallied as of November 6. Pre-election polls from aggregators like FiveThirtyEight showed Sherrill ahead by 10-15 points in this moderately competitive district, reflecting her incumbency advantage, strong fundraising, and appeal to independents. Major outlets including AP and NBC called the race for Sherrill, with no outstanding absentee or provisional ballots threatening the margin; markets await formal certification but price in near-certainty absent extraordinary reversals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$2,347End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In New Jersey's 11th Congressional District House race, trader consensus strongly backs the Democratic incumbent Rep. Mikie Sherrill at 89.5% implied probability, driven by her decisive election night lead of 56% to 42% over Republican Rick Zimmer with over 95% of votes tallied as of November 6. Pre-election polls from aggregators like FiveThirtyEight showed Sherrill ahead by 10-15 points in this moderately competitive district, reflecting her incumbency advantage, strong fundraising, and appeal to independents. Major outlets including AP and NBC called the race for Sherrill, with no outstanding absentee or provisional ballots threatening the margin; markets await formal certification but price in near-certainty absent extraordinary reversals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,347End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In New Jersey's 11th Congressional District House race, trader consensus strongly backs the Democratic incumbent Rep. Mikie Sherrill at 89.5% implied probability, driven by her decisive election night lead of 56% to 42% over Republican Rick Zimmer with over 95% of votes tallied as of November 6. Pre-election polls from aggregators like FiveThirtyEight showed Sherrill ahead by 10-15 points in this moderately competitive district, reflecting her incumbency advantage, strong fundraising, and appeal to independents. Major outlets including AP and NBC called the race for Sherrill, with no outstanding absentee or provisional ballots threatening the margin; markets await formal certification but price in near-certainty absent extraordinary reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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