Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum holds a commanding position in Minnesota's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's consistent Democratic performance and partisan composition. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with McCollum's prior victories by wide margins in a district leaning heavily toward her party. Both parties face August primaries, with McCollum drawing a challenger on the Democratic side and limited Republican options advancing. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for safe incumbents and the absence of major recent shifts in polling or campaign dynamics that would alter the outlook. A late national wave favoring Republicans, significant scandal, or health-related withdrawal could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural factors make such changes improbable before the general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes MN-04
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes MN-04
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$3,370 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$4,742 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum holds a commanding position in Minnesota's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's consistent Democratic performance and partisan composition. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with McCollum's prior victories by wide margins in a district leaning heavily toward her party. Both parties face August primaries, with McCollum drawing a challenger on the Democratic side and limited Republican options advancing. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for safe incumbents and the absence of major recent shifts in polling or campaign dynamics that would alter the outlook. A late national wave favoring Republicans, significant scandal, or health-related withdrawal could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural factors make such changes improbable before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$8,112Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum holds a commanding position in Minnesota's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's consistent Democratic performance and partisan composition. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with McCollum's prior victories by wide margins in a district leaning heavily toward her party. Both parties face August primaries, with McCollum drawing a challenger on the Democratic side and limited Republican options advancing. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for safe incumbents and the absence of major recent shifts in polling or campaign dynamics that would alter the outlook. A late national wave favoring Republicans, significant scandal, or health-related withdrawal could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural factors make such changes improbable before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$8,112Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum holds a commanding position in Minnesota's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's consistent Democratic performance and partisan composition. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with McCollum's prior victories by wide margins in a district leaning heavily toward her party. Both parties face August primaries, with McCollum drawing a challenger on the Democratic side and limited Republican options advancing. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for safe incumbents and the absence of major recent shifts in polling or campaign dynamics that would alter the outlook. A late national wave favoring Republicans, significant scandal, or health-related withdrawal could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural factors make such changes improbable before the general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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