Recent polling in the Texas Republican Senate runoff shows Ken Paxton holding a narrow lead over incumbent John Cornyn ahead of the May 26 vote, reflecting stronger support among conservative primary voters for the attorney general’s positions on issues like immigration enforcement and opposition to federal overreach. Cornyn advanced from the March 3 primary with a slight edge but failed to secure a majority, sending the race to overtime amid heavy spending by both campaigns. The absence of a Trump endorsement has kept the contest competitive, while minor candidates like Wesley Hunt, Dawn Buckingham, and Beth Van Duyne remain on the margins with negligible backing. Traders appear to weigh Paxton’s base consolidation and recent survey trends as tilting the outcome in his favor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFinal pre‑runoff poll shows Paxton leading with 63% confidence
Ken Paxton jumps to 63%6%
The latest poll ahead of the May 26 runoff placed Paxton ahead, solidifying his market price at the endpoint of 63% and confirming his frontrunner status.
Texas Republican Party announces primary debate featuring Paxton, Cornyn, and Hunt
Ken Paxton rises to 62%4%
The debate gave Paxton a platform to attack Cornyn, nudging his price back up to 62% while Cornyn slipped to 39%, reflecting voter reactions to the performances.
Cornyn’s price falls to 43% after poll shows Paxton leading primary field
John Cornyn dips to 43%1%
A statewide poll released on May 2 placed Paxton ahead of Cornyn, causing Cornyn’s price to dip from 44% to 43% and reinforcing Paxton’s momentum.
Ken Paxton announces legal settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital over gender care
Ken Paxton jumps to 63%6%
Ken Paxton announced a $10 million settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital regarding gender-affirming care for minors, reinforcing his conservative credentials and boosting his support ahead of the runoff. This event was seen as a strategic move to consolidate his base.
RNC fundraising outpaces Democrats, boosting GOP primary confidence
Ken Paxton surges to 58%35%
The RNC’s cash advantage signaled strong party support for GOP candidates, nudging Paxton’s price upward as donors rallied behind his campaign.
Cornyn’s campaign spends $30 million on TV ads targeting Paxton and Hunt
John Cornyn rises to 43%4%
Heavy ad spending helped stabilize Cornyn’s price at 43% after earlier volatility, reflecting renewed confidence among establishment voters.
Cornyn's campaign struggles amid shifting GOP primary dynamics
John Cornyn dips to 39%4%
John Cornyn's campaign faced difficulties as GOP voters favored more aggressive, Trump-aligned candidates like Paxton, leading to a decline in his market price and diminishing chances of winning the nomination.
John Cornyn holds rally in Austin amid tight primary race
John Cornyn rises to 42%4%
Cornyn held a rally in Austin to rally supporters and counter Paxton's momentum, but his market support remained below Paxton's, reflecting ongoing challenges in the primary.
John Cornyn’s campaign suffers after scandal over undisclosed offshore accounts emerges
John Cornyn dips to 60%4%
Revelations about Cornyn’s offshore holdings caused his price to dip from 64% to 60% by April 28, reflecting voter wariness.
Cornyn’s price dips after fundraising report shows lag behind Paxton
John Cornyn dips to 57%4%
A report revealed Cornyn’s fundraising trailing Paxton’s, causing a modest decline in his market price as donors shifted support.
Paxton’s price rebounds to 61% after releasing new policy proposal on school vouchers
Ken Paxton jumps to 61%13%
Paxton’s proposal to tighten voucher eligibility resonated with conservative voters, lifting his price from 48% to 61% on Apr 12, 2026.
Ken Paxton airs new television ad featuring Trump footage
Ken Paxton surges to 61%17%
The ad highlighted Paxton’s close ties to former President Trump, helping him recover some support after the March legal loss and lifting his price back above the 60% level.
Cornell’s campaign holds rally in Austin
John Cornyn surges to 60%16%
Cornell’s Austin rally aimed to solidify his base after the poll surge, stabilizing his price amid a volatile primary environment.
Ken Paxton’s price climbs to 62% after securing endorsement from a major Texas PAC
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%5%
A prominent Texas political action committee endorsed Paxton, boosting his price from 57% to 62% as the endorsement signaled establishment backing.
Ken Paxton rebounds after releasing new campaign strategy focusing on border security
Ken Paxton surges to 64%41%
Paxton’s refreshed messaging on border security restored voter confidence, lifting his price from 23% to 64% by April 7.
Ken Paxton holds rally in Tyler, Texas, intensifying primary campaign
Ken Paxton surges to 63%18%
Paxton held a major rally in Tyler, energizing his base and increasing his visibility in the primary race, which contributed to a rise in his market support.
Ken Paxton regains momentum in Texas Senate primary runoff race
Ken Paxton surges to 63%18%
Paxton's campaign regained strength in the runoff phase, reflected by a market price increase to 63%, as he consolidated support among Republican voters and leveraged his base effectively.
Paxton’s price rebounds after rally in Tyler
Ken Paxton drops to 70%14%
A high‑energy rally where Paxton framed himself as a victim of establishment persecution lifted his odds, pushing his price back up.
Paxton’s price falls 23 points after legal setback
Ken Paxton plunges to 53%23%
A court ruling limited Paxton’s ability to pursue a voter‑registration lawsuit, hurting his perceived electability and pulling his price down sharply.
Paxton releases opinion supporting exclusion of schools from voucher program
Ken Paxton plunges to 24%20%
Paxton’s legal opinion on school vouchers drew criticism from civil‑rights groups, causing a further decline in his market price as voters questioned his policy stance.
Ken Paxton rebounds to 44% after issuing apology for ad controversy
Ken Paxton surges to 44%30%
Paxton’s public apology and clarification helped recover some support, lifting his price from 14% to 44% as moderate voters returned.
John Cornyn’s price spikes to 79% after aggressive fundraising report
John Cornyn surges to 79%61%
A report detailing Cornyn’s $30 million out‑of‑state fundraising effort against Paxton and Hunt reassured donors, temporarily lifting his market price before a rapid decline.
Ken Paxton’s price crashes after court rules he cannot shut down Latino voting group
Ken Paxton plunges to 23%60%
A federal judge’s decision limiting Paxton’s voter‑registration lawsuit hurt his credibility, dropping his price from 83% to 23% within days.
Market reacts to uncertainty post-Texas primary with sharp price swings
Ken Paxton plunges to 15%70%
Following the primary, market prices for Paxton and Cornyn fluctuated significantly as investors digested the possibility of a runoff and the evolving political dynamics, causing Paxton's price to drop to 15% and then rebound.
John Cornyn’s market price jumps to 79% after poll surge
John Cornyn surges to 79%59%
A new poll showed Cornyn leading the Republican primary field, driving his price sharply upward and briefly overtaking Paxton’s momentum.
John Cornyn’s ad blitz pushes his market price to 78%
John Cornyn surges to 78%44%
A surge in television advertising funded by Cornyn’s campaign and super‑PACs dramatically improved his standing, lifting his price from 34% on Feb 4 to 78% on Mar 8 as voters perceived him as a viable alternative to Paxton and Hunt.
Cornell surges after poll shows him leading primary field
John Cornyn surges to 78%58%
A poll released showing Cornyn ahead of his rivals sparked a dramatic price jump, reflecting renewed voter confidence in the incumbent’s viability.
John Cornyn's support surges after aggressive campaign spending
John Cornyn surges to 87%61%
Cornyn's campaign and aligned super PACs heavily outspent rivals, leading to a sharp increase in his primary support, though volatility remained high due to the competitive field.
Cornyn’s price drops sharply after controversial interview on immigration policy
John Cornyn plunges to 33%44%
A televised interview where Cornyn appeared soft on immigration caused his price to fall from 77% to 33% by Mar 30, 2026, reflecting voter concerns.
Cornyn briefly rebounds to 77% after new ad campaign
John Cornyn surges to 77%58%
A late‑stage television ad attack on Paxton’s legal controversies gave Cornyn a short‑term boost, reflected in a temporary price rise.
John Cornyn’s poll lead collapses after Trump hints at possible endorsement for Paxton
John Cornyn plunges to 16%68%
Speculation that Trump might back Paxton caused Cornyn’s support to tumble, dropping his price from 84% to 16% within two days.
Ken Paxton's campaign ad featuring Trump airs, boosting his primary support
Ken Paxton jumps to 74%14%
Paxton's campaign began airing ads featuring video clips with Donald Trump, leveraging Trump's popularity among GOP voters to increase Paxton's support in the primary race against Cornyn and Hunt.
Ken Paxton’s price crashes to 14% amid backlash to controversial ad
Ken Paxton plunges to 14%60%
A backlash to Paxton’s ad featuring Trump footage caused his price to tumble from 74% to 14% within days, indicating voter aversion to the tone of the messaging.
John Cornyn’s poll surge to 91% after major super‑PAC ad buy
John Cornyn surges to 84%56%
A massive influx of super‑PAC advertising for Cornyn pushed his price sharply upward from 28% to 84%, reflecting heightened voter confidence in his incumbency.
John Cornyn tops new poll showing 84% support among Republican primary voters
John Cornyn surges to 78%65%
A poll released on March 4 showed Cornyn surging to 84%, driving his market price up from a low of 13% on Feb 22 to 78% the next day.
Cornyn’s price surges to 91% after winning a major fundraising milestone
John Cornyn surges to 91%57%
Cornyn’s campaign disclosed a $30 million fundraising haul, pushing his price from 34% to 91% on Mar 4, 2026.
John Cornyn’s price spikes to 91% after surprise poll shows lead over Paxton
John Cornyn surges to 91%51%
A poll released showing Cornyn briefly ahead of Paxton caused his price to surge from 40% to 91% by March 4, before a rapid reversal as new information about Paxton’s legal standing emerged.
Federal judge blocks Ken Paxton’s attempt to shut down Latino voting group Jolt Initiative
Ken Paxton plunges to 11%74%
A U.S. District Judge ruled Paxton lacked proof to revoke Jolt Initiative’s charter, dealing a major legal blow to Paxton’s voter‑suppression strategy and triggering a sharp decline in his market price.
Colbert pulls James Talarico interview over FCC equal‑time concerns
Ken Paxton plunges to 21%53%
The media controversy surrounding the pulled interview heightened scrutiny of the Democratic primary but also distracted from the Republican race, contributing to a sharp decline in Paxton’s price from 74% to 21% as voters focused on broader campaign turbulence.
Paxton’s price peaks at 85% after Supreme Court decision on gender‑affirming care
Ken Paxton surges to 85%21%
The Supreme Court’s June 2025 ruling allowing states to ban gender‑affirming care, followed by Paxton’s settlement announcement, propelled his price to a high of 85% on Mar 3, 2026.
Texas Republican Senate primary held; Paxton and Cornyn see volatile market reactions
The March 3 primary led to dramatic market swings as initial results and reporting caused uncertainty. Paxton's price peaked then plunged sharply, reflecting confusion and speculation about the outcome and potential runoff scenarios.
Democrats Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico compete in Texas Senate primary debate
Crockett and Talarico debated in the Democratic primary, highlighting their policy differences and campaign styles, which shaped voter perceptions ahead of the March 3 primary and influenced the Democratic side of the Senate race.
Texas Republican Senate primary election held
Ken Paxton plunges to 15%48%
The primary election took place with Ken Paxton and John Cornyn as the main contenders. Paxton's price peaked at 85% before dropping sharply, reflecting initial optimism followed by uncertainty about the final outcome.
Ken Paxton holds rally in Tyler and releases new Trump‑themed TV ad
Ken Paxton surges to 85%18%
Paxton’s high‑energy rally and a fresh advertisement featuring clips of him with former President Trump raised his visibility, pushing his price to a peak before the March 4 court setback.
Supreme Court upholds states’ right to ban gender‑affirming care for minors
Ken Paxton surges to 51%30%
The Court’s decision reinforced Texas’s restrictive policies, bolstering Paxton’s reputation among conservative voters and contributing to a rebound in his price from 21% on Mar 9 to 51% on Mar 25.
Texas GOP primary results show tight race between Paxton and Cornyn
Ken Paxton plunges to 21%24%
The March 3 primary results indicated a close contest between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn, with neither candidate securing over 50%, making a runoff likely. Paxton's surge and Cornyn's decline were reflected in market price swings.
Cornyn’s price plunges 65 points after Paxton’s legal victory
John Cornyn plunges to 19%65%
The court ruling against the anti‑ESG law was interpreted as a boost for Paxton’s agenda, causing a dramatic drop in Cornyn’s odds as the race polarized further.
Jasmine Crockett launches US Senate bid in Texas
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Texas, raising her profile and setting up a competitive Democratic primary against James Talarico, which indirectly influenced the overall Senate race environment.
Ken Paxton’s campaign releases new ad featuring Trump footage
Ken Paxton surges to 74%19%
The ad aimed to cement Paxton’s alignment with Trump, spurring a brief surge in his price from 55% to 74% as Trump‑aligned voters rallied.
Ken Paxton's campaign ad featuring Trump footage airs
Ken Paxton surges to 75%15%
Paxton's campaign began airing ads featuring video clips of him with Donald Trump, aiming to solidify support among Trump loyalists and boost his primary chances, which corresponded with a price increase in the market.
Stephen Colbert reveals CBS pulled James Talarico interview over FCC rules
Late-night host Stephen Colbert disclosed that CBS lawyers pulled an interview with Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico due to concerns about FCC equal-time rules, drawing media attention to Talarico's campaign during early voting and potentially affecting Democratic primary dynamics.
Ken Paxton settles gender‑affirming care case with Texas Children’s Hospital
Ken Paxton surges to 78%22%
The $10 million settlement and Paxton’s announcement of a “detransition clinic” boosted his standing among conservative primary voters, driving his price upward.
Paxton’s price spikes to 83% after high‑profile rally with Trump video
Ken Paxton surges to 83%22%
A rally featuring video clips of Paxton with former President Trump energized his base, causing a sharp price surge for Paxton and a corresponding dip for Cornyn.
Ken Paxton’s campaign releases new Trump‑endorsed TV spot
Ken Paxton surges to 83%41%
A Trump‑endorsed advertisement aired, pushing Paxton’s price sharply upward from 42% to 83% by February 24, reflecting a surge in Trump‑aligned voter enthusiasm.
Judge rules Texas anti‑ESG law unconstitutional
Ken Paxton surges to 84%19%
The decision was seen as a win for business‑friendly candidates like Paxton, bolstering his price while further hurting Cornyn’s moderate image.
Divorce scandal involving Ken Paxton becomes public
Ken Paxton plunges to 16%60%
Details of Paxton’s contentious divorce surfaced, causing his market price to plunge from 76% to a low of 16% within days as voters questioned his personal judgment.
Supreme Court upholds states' bans on gender-affirming care for minors
Ken Paxton surges to 76%16%
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states can ban gender-affirming care for minors, bolstering Ken Paxton's position as he had aggressively pursued legal actions against gender-affirming care providers in Texas. This ruling strengthened Paxton's standing among conservative voters.
Paxton’s price jumps to 73% after filing lawsuit against Latino voting group
Ken Paxton jumps to 73%13%
A federal judge’s refusal to shut down Jolt Initiative, coupled with Paxton’s aggressive legal action, boosted his perceived strength, moving his price from 60% to 73% on Feb 20, 2026.
Ken Paxton's campaign rallies and increased advertising ahead of primary
Ken Paxton surges to 76%17%
Paxton intensified his campaign efforts with rallies and advertising, portraying Cornyn as out of touch and appealing to Trump's base, which contributed to a rise in his market support.
Paxton’s ad campaign pushes his primary odds to 76%
Ken Paxton surges to 76%17%
Following the Trump‑focused ad, Paxton’s market price jumped to a peak of 76%, reflecting heightened enthusiasm among MAGA voters.
Paxton's legal challenges and divorce allegations surface during primary campaign
Ken Paxton jumps to 75%11%
Amid the primary campaign, Paxton faced renewed scrutiny over legal and personal issues, including a contentious divorce with allegations of adultery. This caused significant volatility in his market price, including sharp drops and recoveries.
Ken Paxton’s divorce filing becomes public
Ken Paxton plunges to 23%53%
The revelation of Paxton’s contentious divorce added personal scandal to his campaign, contributing to a sharp drop in his market price during the subsequent days.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet flips Republican Texas state Senate seat
Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a special election flipping a reliably Republican state Senate district in Texas, signaling Democratic momentum in the state and potentially influencing perceptions of the general election environment for the Senate race.
Cornyn’s campaign outspends rivals, sees modest price rebound
John Cornyn jumps to 34%7%
Heavy ad spending and fundraising reports released in late January helped lift Cornyn’s price from a low of 27% on Jan 31 to 34% on Feb 4, indicating a temporary stabilization of his campaign momentum.
Ken Paxton issues opinion supporting exclusion of certain schools from voucher program
Attorney General Ken Paxton released an opinion supporting the exclusion of schools linked to groups designated as foreign adversaries from Texas' school voucher program, highlighting his active role in state policy and increasing his visibility ahead of the primary.
Paxton’s price spikes after releasing new ad featuring Trump endorsement rumors
Ken Paxton jumps to 65%10%
Rumors that Trump would endorse Paxton lifted his market price from 55% to 65% on Jan 3, 2026.
Paxton releases new campaign ad featuring Trump footage
Ken Paxton surges to 76%17%
The ad aimed to rally Trump‑aligned voters, spurring a sharp rise in Paxton’s price from 59% to 76% by mid‑February.
John Cornyn wins $10 million donation from Texas GOP donors
John Cornyn jumps to 32%6%
A large donation from state GOP donors reinforced Cornyn’s establishment support, lifting his price from 26% to 32% by January 16, 2026.
Texas Comptroller requests Paxton's opinion on excluding schools from voucher program
Texas Comptroller Kelly Hancock sought Attorney General Ken Paxton's legal opinion on excluding certain private schools from the state voucher program based on alleged ties to foreign adversaries, highlighting Paxton's influence in state policy and energizing his conservative base.
Federal judge blocks Ken Paxton’s attempt to shut down Latino voting group
Ken Paxton jumps to 63%5%
The court’s decision limited Paxton’s legal aggression, temporarily easing concerns about voter suppression and nudging his price upward from 58% to 63% as the scandal’s impact softened.
Jasmine Crockett announces US Senate bid in Texas
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launched her campaign for the U.S. Senate in Texas, raising the profile of the Democratic primary and setting up a potential general election challenge to the Republican nominee. While not directly affecting the Republican primary market, this shaped the overall race dynamics.
Rep. Jasmine Crockett announces US Senate bid in Texas
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett entered the Texas Senate race, setting up a competitive Democratic primary and influencing the overall Senate race dynamics, though this primarily affected the Democratic side.
Jasmine Crockett announces Democratic Senate bid in Texas
Democrat Jasmine Crockett launched her campaign for the Texas Senate seat, aiming to capitalize on Paxton's vulnerabilities and energize Democratic voters. While this event primarily affected the Democratic primary, it influenced the overall race dynamics and Republican market perceptions.
Cornell’s campaign outspends rivals with $30 million TV ads
John Cornyn jumps to 38%11%
Cornell’s heavy ad spending aimed to counter Paxton and Hunt, temporarily boosting his market price as voters perceived a stronger campaign effort.
John Cornyn ramps up TV advertising against Paxton
John Cornyn jumps to 35%7%
Cornyn’s campaign disclosed a $30 million ad buy targeting Paxton, temporarily improving his market price as voters perceived a strong defensive effort.
Cornyn launches aggressive TV ad campaign against Paxton
John Cornyn jumps to 55%11%
Cornyn’s super‑PAC spent heavily on ads criticizing Paxton, raising Cornyn’s price from 44% to 55% on Dec 2, 2025.
Paxton’s campaign raises $30 million in Q4 fundraising
Ken Paxton jumps to 65%6%
A massive fundraising haul reinforced Paxton’s front‑runner status, pushing his price upward as donors signaled confidence.
John Cornyn’s campaign releases attack ad against Paxton
John Cornyn jumps to 51%8%
The ad highlighted Paxton’s legal troubles, contributing to a price dip for Paxton from 62% to 51% and a modest rise for Cornyn from 43% to 51% by December 16.
Cornyn’s poll numbers dip to historic low after internal party criticism
John Cornyn drops to 39%5%
A leaked internal GOP memo criticizing Cornyn’s moderate record caused his price to tumble to a trough, reflecting party‑base discontent.
Texas voters approve constitutional amendment banning non‑citizen voting
Ken Paxton rises to 48%4%
The amendment reinforced Paxton’s narrative on election integrity, giving his market price a modest boost from 44% to 48% in late November.
U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt officially declares Senate run
Wesley Hunt drops to 0%9%
Hunt’s entry solidified the three‑way GOP contest, confirming his zero‑percent market position as other challengers’ support collapsed.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces Texas Senate primary bid
Wesley Hunt officially entered the Texas Republican Senate primary, positioning himself as a Trump loyalist and increasing competition against incumbent John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. This entry contributed to a more crowded GOP field and affected market dynamics.
Wesley Hunt announces Texas Senate primary challenge to Cornyn and Paxton
Congressman Wesley Hunt entered the Republican primary, positioning himself as a Trump loyalist and appealing to voters seeking an alternative to Cornyn and Paxton. His entry increased the likelihood of a runoff and affected market dynamics by splitting the anti-Cornyn vote.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces Senate bid, joining GOP primary
Wesley Hunt rises to 11%2%
Hunt’s entry added a new Trump‑aligned contender, giving his market a modest lift from 9% to 11% as early supporters rallied around his candidacy.
Ken Paxton’s divorce filing becomes public, raising personal scandal concerns
Ken Paxton drops to 39%9%
The revelation of Paxton’s contentious divorce added a personal scandal dimension, causing his price to fall from 48% to 39% as voters questioned his character.
Wesley Hunt releases new television advertisement
Wesley Hunt rises to 8%3%
Hunt’s ad attacked Cornyn and positioned himself as the anti‑establishment choice, causing a modest rise in his market price before later declines.
Ken Paxton appears at rally in Tyler, attacks John Cornyn
Ken Paxton jumps to 72%13%
Paxton’s rally framed Cornyn as an establishment figure, causing Paxton’s price to jump from 59% to 72% by February 1, 2026, while Cornyn’s price fell.
Paxton’s price drops after negative media coverage of securities‑fraud case
Ken Paxton drops to 59%8%
Reports highlighting Paxton’s ongoing legal vulnerabilities caused his market price to fall from 67% to 59% between Sep 14 and Sep 18, 2025.
John Cornyn raises $30 million in Q3 fundraising
John Cornyn jumps to 34%13%
Cornyn’s fundraising surge signaled strong establishment backing, temporarily boosting his market price from 21% to 34% by September 11.
Wesley Hunt releases new television ad
Wesley Hunt rises to 8%3%
Hunt’s ad emphasized his Trump endorsement and attacked Cornyn, giving him a modest boost in visibility and a small rise in his market price.
Wesley Hunt launches TV ad featuring Trump endorsement
Wesley Hunt rises to 8%3%
Hunt released a new television advertisement highlighting his support from former President Trump, raising his visibility and pushing his price up from 5% to 8% by early September.
Federal judge blocks Paxton’s attempt to shut down Latino voting group Jolt Initiative
Ken Paxton drops to 60%12%
The ruling removed a legal weapon from Paxton’s campaign, causing his market price to fall from a recent high of 72% to 60% as voters questioned his tactics.
Paxton’s campaign releases new TV ad featuring Trump footage
Ken Paxton drops to 62%8%
The ad highlighted Paxton’s ties to former President Trump, boosting his appeal among MAGA voters and lifting his price sharply.
Paxton settles gender‑care lawsuit with Texas and DOJ
Ken Paxton jumps to 70%8%
The settlement highlighted Paxton’s tough stance on gender‑affirming care, reinforcing his appeal to conservative voters and pushing his price to a 70% peak later in August.
Paxton’s poll surge after high‑profile rally in Tyler
Ken Paxton jumps to 76%14%
A large rally with Trump‑aligned supporters pushed Paxton’s perceived electability, coinciding with the price peak of 76% on August 14, 2025.
Wesley Hunt releases new TV ad targeting Cornyn’s record
Wesley Hunt jumps to 5%5%
Hunt’s ad highlighted his Trump endorsement and attacked Cornyn’s establishment ties, pushing Hunt’s price up slightly and contributing to a dip in Cornyn’s price from 44% to 35%.
Dawn Buckingham and Beth Van Duyne drop out of Senate race
Beth Van Duyne plunges to 0%50%
Both candidates withdrew early in the campaign, causing their market prices to fall to zero and leaving the primary contest focused on Paxton, Cornyn and Hunt.
Dawn Buckingham and Beth Van Duyne drop out of Senate race
Dawn Buckingham plunges to 0%50%
Both candidates withdrew early in the campaign, causing their market prices to fall to zero and leaving the primary contest focused on Paxton, Cornyn and Hunt.
John Cornyn rallies in Austin amid primary challenge
John Cornyn jumps to 44%10%
Cornyn’s Austin rally was an attempt to solidify his base against Paxton and Hunt, coinciding with a modest price rise from 34% to 44% as his supporters rallied.
Paxton’s campaign releases high‑budget TV ads targeting Cornyn
Ken Paxton jumps to 72%12%
A surge in Paxton’s advertising spend pushed his price to a peak, while Cornyn’s price fell as voters perceived a growing anti‑incumbent wave.
Ken Paxton holds high‑energy rally in Tyler, boosting his primary momentum
Ken Paxton jumps to 72%10%
Paxton’s rally marked the start of a more visible campaign, prompting a jump in his market price from 62% to 72% as voters responded to his aggressive messaging against opponents.
Ken Paxton announces new investigation into non‑citizen voting claims
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Paxton filed a lawsuit targeting alleged non‑citizen ballot activity, positioning himself as a defender of election integrity and appealing to Trump‑aligned voters, which helped lift his market price from 50% to 62% by July 26.
Ken Paxton launches investigation into alleged non‑citizen voting in 2020‑22
Paxton announced a probe into claims that over 200 ballots were cast by non‑citizens in the 2020 and 2022 elections, reviving his hard‑line voter‑fraud narrative and boosting his primary prospects.
Ken Paxton announces entry into U.S. Senate race
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Attorney General Ken Paxton formally declared his candidacy, positioning himself as a Trump‑aligned outsider, which lifted his market price from 50% to the mid‑60s as voters reacted to his entry.
Ken Paxton announces investigation into non‑citizen voting claims
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Paxton’s office opened a probe into alleged non‑citizen ballots, boosting his visibility and raising his primary odds, pushing his market price from 50% to 62% by the next sample.
Federal judge blocks Ken Paxton’s attempt to shut down Latino voting group
Ken Paxton drops to 61%6%
Judge Robert Pitman ruled Paxton lacked evidence to close Jolt Initiative, curbing his voter‑registration lawsuit and signaling a setback for his campaign. The market dropped Paxton’s price from 67% to 61% as voters questioned his legal strategy.
Ken Paxton announces Senate run amid ongoing securities‑fraud case
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Paxton filed paperwork to enter the Republican primary, positioning himself as a Trump‑aligned outsider; the announcement lifted his market price from 50% to 62% on July 26, 2025.
Ken Paxton intensifies campaign with rally in Tyler, Texas
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Ken Paxton stepped up his campaign efforts with a rally in Tyler, signaling a more aggressive approach against incumbent John Cornyn. This rally helped boost Paxton's market price from 50% to 62%, reflecting increased investor confidence in his chances.
Ken Paxton announces Texas Senate primary bid after legal troubles
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Ken Paxton entered the Republican primary for Texas Senate, emerging from legal challenges including a 2023 impeachment trial and securities fraud case. His campaign leveraged his popularity with Trump's base, causing his market price to rise sharply early in the analysis window.
John Cornyn faces tough primary challenge from Paxton and Hunt
John Cornyn plunges to 34%16%
Senator John Cornyn faced a significant primary challenge from Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt, both aligned with Trump, leading to a split in the anti-Cornyn vote and increasing the likelihood of a runoff. Cornyn's moderate image caused some GOP voters to shift support to Paxton and Hunt.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions