LaMonica McIver’s commanding position in the NJ-10 race stems primarily from the district’s entrenched Democratic tilt, encompassing Newark and surrounding areas with a plurality African American population and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. As the incumbent who secured the seat in 2024, McIver won her June 2026 primary by a wide margin despite facing federal assault charges tied to a 2025 protest incident. Republican nominee Carmen Bucco, a perennial candidate with minimal fundraising, offers limited opposition in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. General election voting on November 3 will test whether any late developments, such as legal rulings or turnout anomalies, alter the current trader consensus reflected in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-10 House Election Winner
NJ-10 House Election Winner
$50,537 Vol.
$50,537 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
LaMonica McIver (D)
95%
Carmen Bucco (R)
4%
$50,537 Vol.
$50,537 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
LaMonica McIver (D)
$14,025 Vol.
95%
Carmen Bucco (R)
$36,511 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).LaMonica McIver’s commanding position in the NJ-10 race stems primarily from the district’s entrenched Democratic tilt, encompassing Newark and surrounding areas with a plurality African American population and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. As the incumbent who secured the seat in 2024, McIver won her June 2026 primary by a wide margin despite facing federal assault charges tied to a 2025 protest incident. Republican nominee Carmen Bucco, a perennial candidate with minimal fundraising, offers limited opposition in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. General election voting on November 3 will test whether any late developments, such as legal rulings or turnout anomalies, alter the current trader consensus reflected in these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$50,537End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).LaMonica McIver’s commanding position in the NJ-10 race stems primarily from the district’s entrenched Democratic tilt, encompassing Newark and surrounding areas with a plurality African American population and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. As the incumbent who secured the seat in 2024, McIver won her June 2026 primary by a wide margin despite facing federal assault charges tied to a 2025 protest incident. Republican nominee Carmen Bucco, a perennial candidate with minimal fundraising, offers limited opposition in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. General election voting on November 3 will test whether any late developments, such as legal rulings or turnout anomalies, alter the current trader consensus reflected in these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,537End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...LaMonica McIver’s commanding position in the NJ-10 race stems primarily from the district’s entrenched Democratic tilt, encompassing Newark and surrounding areas with a plurality African American population and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. As the incumbent who secured the seat in 2024, McIver won her June 2026 primary by a wide margin despite facing federal assault charges tied to a 2025 protest incident. Republican nominee Carmen Bucco, a perennial candidate with minimal fundraising, offers limited opposition in a district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. General election voting on November 3 will test whether any late developments, such as legal rulings or turnout anomalies, alter the current trader consensus reflected in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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