**Stelson leads the PA-10 race in recent public polling, including a Franklin & Marshall survey from mid-September showing her ahead 47-44 among registered voters, building on earlier internal and public surveys that placed her in a narrow lead.** The district, encompassing all of Dauphin County plus portions of Cumberland and York, remains competitive after Perry’s narrow 2024 victory by roughly 5,100 votes. Stelson has raised substantially more than the incumbent, with Cook Political Report shifting the contest to Lean Democrat in early October amid these trends. An Oct. 14 debate and voter focus on the economy and border security represent near-term tests before the Nov. 3 general election. Prediction-market pricing reflects trader assessments of these polling, fundraising, and rating developments in a rematch of a closely contested seat.