The East Bay's longstanding Democratic structural advantage, reflected in a D+18 partisan lean and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold for California's 10th congressional district. Incumbent Mark DeSaulnier benefits from established name recognition, fundraising dominance, and a fragmented Republican primary field that includes repeat challenger Katherine Piccinini alongside lesser-known candidates. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 general election. Shifts remain possible if national political trends intensify, primary outcomes alter candidate quality, or unforeseen events such as health developments or turnout surprises materialize, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's baseline in recent elections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,171 交易量
$15,171 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$15,171 交易量
$15,171 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$9,547 交易量
94%
共和党
$5,624 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The East Bay's longstanding Democratic structural advantage, reflected in a D+18 partisan lean and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold for California's 10th congressional district. Incumbent Mark DeSaulnier benefits from established name recognition, fundraising dominance, and a fragmented Republican primary field that includes repeat challenger Katherine Piccinini alongside lesser-known candidates. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 general election. Shifts remain possible if national political trends intensify, primary outcomes alter candidate quality, or unforeseen events such as health developments or turnout surprises materialize, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's baseline in recent elections.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$15,171结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The East Bay's longstanding Democratic structural advantage, reflected in a D+18 partisan lean and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold for California's 10th congressional district. Incumbent Mark DeSaulnier benefits from established name recognition, fundraising dominance, and a fragmented Republican primary field that includes repeat challenger Katherine Piccinini alongside lesser-known candidates. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 general election. Shifts remain possible if national political trends intensify, primary outcomes alter candidate quality, or unforeseen events such as health developments or turnout surprises materialize, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's baseline in recent elections.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,171结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The East Bay's longstanding Democratic structural advantage, reflected in a D+18 partisan lean and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic hold for California's 10th congressional district. Incumbent Mark DeSaulnier benefits from established name recognition, fundraising dominance, and a fragmented Republican primary field that includes repeat challenger Katherine Piccinini alongside lesser-known candidates. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 general election. Shifts remain possible if national political trends intensify, primary outcomes alter candidate quality, or unforeseen events such as health developments or turnout surprises materialize, though such factors have rarely overcome the district's baseline in recent elections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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