New York's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic stronghold in Manhattan with a history of lopsided victories—such as Rep. Jerrold Nadler's 2024 win by over 40 points—drives trader consensus at 93% for the Democratic Party in the 2026 general election. The open seat following Nadler's September 2025 retirement announcement has sparked a crowded Democratic primary on June 23, featuring candidates like Jack Schlossberg, Alex Bores, and Micah Lasher, backed by Nadler's February endorsement. Recent March polls highlight primary leads but underscore undecided voters, yet the district's heavy Democratic registration (over 80%) and urban demographics ensure the nominee's dominance. GOP odds at 6% reflect weak challengers and no viable path amid national midterm dynamics. Upsets would require a post-primary Democratic scandal, nominee implosion, or extraordinary Republican wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$0 交易量
93%
共和党
$0 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic stronghold in Manhattan with a history of lopsided victories—such as Rep. Jerrold Nadler's 2024 win by over 40 points—drives trader consensus at 93% for the Democratic Party in the 2026 general election. The open seat following Nadler's September 2025 retirement announcement has sparked a crowded Democratic primary on June 23, featuring candidates like Jack Schlossberg, Alex Bores, and Micah Lasher, backed by Nadler's February endorsement. Recent March polls highlight primary leads but underscore undecided voters, yet the district's heavy Democratic registration (over 80%) and urban demographics ensure the nominee's dominance. GOP odds at 6% reflect weak challengers and no viable path amid national midterm dynamics. Upsets would require a post-primary Democratic scandal, nominee implosion, or extraordinary Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic stronghold in Manhattan with a history of lopsided victories—such as Rep. Jerrold Nadler's 2024 win by over 40 points—drives trader consensus at 93% for the Democratic Party in the 2026 general election. The open seat following Nadler's September 2025 retirement announcement has sparked a crowded Democratic primary on June 23, featuring candidates like Jack Schlossberg, Alex Bores, and Micah Lasher, backed by Nadler's February endorsement. Recent March polls highlight primary leads but underscore undecided voters, yet the district's heavy Democratic registration (over 80%) and urban demographics ensure the nominee's dominance. GOP odds at 6% reflect weak challengers and no viable path amid national midterm dynamics. Upsets would require a post-primary Democratic scandal, nominee implosion, or extraordinary Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic stronghold in Manhattan with a history of lopsided victories—such as Rep. Jerrold Nadler's 2024 win by over 40 points—drives trader consensus at 93% for the Democratic Party in the 2026 general election. The open seat following Nadler's September 2025 retirement announcement has sparked a crowded Democratic primary on June 23, featuring candidates like Jack Schlossberg, Alex Bores, and Micah Lasher, backed by Nadler's February endorsement. Recent March polls highlight primary leads but underscore undecided voters, yet the district's heavy Democratic registration (over 80%) and urban demographics ensure the nominee's dominance. GOP odds at 6% reflect weak challengers and no viable path amid national midterm dynamics. Upsets would require a post-primary Democratic scandal, nominee implosion, or extraordinary Republican wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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