Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson’s long tenure and consistent electoral strength anchor the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in California’s 4th congressional district. The seat carries a pronounced Democratic lean, reinforced by Thompson’s 66.5 percent victory in 2024, and recent redistricting under Proposition 50 has not altered its fundamental partisan balance enough to create a viable Republican path. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, multiple Republican candidates are expected to split opposition votes, while Thompson maintains fundraising and organizational advantages over his Democratic primary challenger. Forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic. Late developments such as an unexpected primary outcome or major scandal could theoretically shift momentum, yet the district’s structural composition and incumbency patterns make such changes improbable before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$630 交易量
92%
共和党
$2,081 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson’s long tenure and consistent electoral strength anchor the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in California’s 4th congressional district. The seat carries a pronounced Democratic lean, reinforced by Thompson’s 66.5 percent victory in 2024, and recent redistricting under Proposition 50 has not altered its fundamental partisan balance enough to create a viable Republican path. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, multiple Republican candidates are expected to split opposition votes, while Thompson maintains fundraising and organizational advantages over his Democratic primary challenger. Forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic. Late developments such as an unexpected primary outcome or major scandal could theoretically shift momentum, yet the district’s structural composition and incumbency patterns make such changes improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$2,711结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson’s long tenure and consistent electoral strength anchor the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in California’s 4th congressional district. The seat carries a pronounced Democratic lean, reinforced by Thompson’s 66.5 percent victory in 2024, and recent redistricting under Proposition 50 has not altered its fundamental partisan balance enough to create a viable Republican path. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, multiple Republican candidates are expected to split opposition votes, while Thompson maintains fundraising and organizational advantages over his Democratic primary challenger. Forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic. Late developments such as an unexpected primary outcome or major scandal could theoretically shift momentum, yet the district’s structural composition and incumbency patterns make such changes improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,711结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson’s long tenure and consistent electoral strength anchor the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in California’s 4th congressional district. The seat carries a pronounced Democratic lean, reinforced by Thompson’s 66.5 percent victory in 2024, and recent redistricting under Proposition 50 has not altered its fundamental partisan balance enough to create a viable Republican path. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, multiple Republican candidates are expected to split opposition votes, while Thompson maintains fundraising and organizational advantages over his Democratic primary challenger. Forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic. Late developments such as an unexpected primary outcome or major scandal could theoretically shift momentum, yet the district’s structural composition and incumbency patterns make such changes improbable before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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