Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, first elected in 1998 and re-elected with 66.5% in 2024, anchors trader consensus in California's 4th congressional district. The seat carries a partisan voting index favoring Democrats and received Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters ahead of the June 2, 2026 primary and November 3 general election. Recent redistricting incorporated additional rural areas, yet the overall voter registration and historical margins sustain the strong Democratic positioning. Republican candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, have filed but face structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance has consistently exceeded 60%. Late shifts in national sentiment or an unusually competitive primary could alter the trajectory, though current evidence points to limited movement before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$630 交易量
92%
共和党
$2,081 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, first elected in 1998 and re-elected with 66.5% in 2024, anchors trader consensus in California's 4th congressional district. The seat carries a partisan voting index favoring Democrats and received Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters ahead of the June 2, 2026 primary and November 3 general election. Recent redistricting incorporated additional rural areas, yet the overall voter registration and historical margins sustain the strong Democratic positioning. Republican candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, have filed but face structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance has consistently exceeded 60%. Late shifts in national sentiment or an unusually competitive primary could alter the trajectory, though current evidence points to limited movement before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$2,711结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, first elected in 1998 and re-elected with 66.5% in 2024, anchors trader consensus in California's 4th congressional district. The seat carries a partisan voting index favoring Democrats and received Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters ahead of the June 2, 2026 primary and November 3 general election. Recent redistricting incorporated additional rural areas, yet the overall voter registration and historical margins sustain the strong Democratic positioning. Republican candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, have filed but face structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance has consistently exceeded 60%. Late shifts in national sentiment or an unusually competitive primary could alter the trajectory, though current evidence points to limited movement before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,711结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, first elected in 1998 and re-elected with 66.5% in 2024, anchors trader consensus in California's 4th congressional district. The seat carries a partisan voting index favoring Democrats and received Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters ahead of the June 2, 2026 primary and November 3 general election. Recent redistricting incorporated additional rural areas, yet the overall voter registration and historical margins sustain the strong Democratic positioning. Republican candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, have filed but face structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance has consistently exceeded 60%. Late shifts in national sentiment or an unusually competitive primary could alter the trajectory, though current evidence points to limited movement before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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