Longtime Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson anchors the commanding trader consensus in California's 4th congressional district, a Northern California seat encompassing Napa and Sonoma wine country along with Sacramento suburbs. Thompson's consistent reelection margins, including 66.5% in 2024, reflect the district's strong Democratic partisan lean and voter registration edge. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features multiple challengers, yet the general-election matchup is widely expected to remain between a Democrat and Republican under California's system. With the election still months away, late developments such as an unexpected primary outcome, candidate health issue, or major scandal could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current district fundamentals support the current positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$630 交易量
92%
共和党
$2,081 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Longtime Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson anchors the commanding trader consensus in California's 4th congressional district, a Northern California seat encompassing Napa and Sonoma wine country along with Sacramento suburbs. Thompson's consistent reelection margins, including 66.5% in 2024, reflect the district's strong Democratic partisan lean and voter registration edge. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features multiple challengers, yet the general-election matchup is widely expected to remain between a Democrat and Republican under California's system. With the election still months away, late developments such as an unexpected primary outcome, candidate health issue, or major scandal could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current district fundamentals support the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$2,711结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Longtime Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson anchors the commanding trader consensus in California's 4th congressional district, a Northern California seat encompassing Napa and Sonoma wine country along with Sacramento suburbs. Thompson's consistent reelection margins, including 66.5% in 2024, reflect the district's strong Democratic partisan lean and voter registration edge. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features multiple challengers, yet the general-election matchup is widely expected to remain between a Democrat and Republican under California's system. With the election still months away, late developments such as an unexpected primary outcome, candidate health issue, or major scandal could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current district fundamentals support the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,711结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Longtime Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson anchors the commanding trader consensus in California's 4th congressional district, a Northern California seat encompassing Napa and Sonoma wine country along with Sacramento suburbs. Thompson's consistent reelection margins, including 66.5% in 2024, reflect the district's strong Democratic partisan lean and voter registration edge. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features multiple challengers, yet the general-election matchup is widely expected to remain between a Democrat and Republican under California's system. With the election still months away, late developments such as an unexpected primary outcome, candidate health issue, or major scandal could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current district fundamentals support the current positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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