Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson’s long-standing presence in California’s 4th District, combined with the seat’s strong partisan lean after recent redistricting, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory at 91.5 percent. Forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter composition that have held through the current cycle. The June 2 top-two primary features multiple Democratic entrants alongside Republican challengers, but the district’s structural tilt makes a Democratic nominee the near-certain November finalist. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap remain limited and would require major shifts such as unexpected primary outcomes or late-cycle national swings large enough to overcome the district’s baseline Democratic advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$791 交易量
92%
共和党
$2,084 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson’s long-standing presence in California’s 4th District, combined with the seat’s strong partisan lean after recent redistricting, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory at 91.5 percent. Forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter composition that have held through the current cycle. The June 2 top-two primary features multiple Democratic entrants alongside Republican challengers, but the district’s structural tilt makes a Democratic nominee the near-certain November finalist. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap remain limited and would require major shifts such as unexpected primary outcomes or late-cycle national swings large enough to overcome the district’s baseline Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$2,875结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson’s long-standing presence in California’s 4th District, combined with the seat’s strong partisan lean after recent redistricting, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory at 91.5 percent. Forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter composition that have held through the current cycle. The June 2 top-two primary features multiple Democratic entrants alongside Republican challengers, but the district’s structural tilt makes a Democratic nominee the near-certain November finalist. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap remain limited and would require major shifts such as unexpected primary outcomes or late-cycle national swings large enough to overcome the district’s baseline Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,875结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson’s long-standing presence in California’s 4th District, combined with the seat’s strong partisan lean after recent redistricting, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory at 91.5 percent. Forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter composition that have held through the current cycle. The June 2 top-two primary features multiple Democratic entrants alongside Republican challengers, but the district’s structural tilt makes a Democratic nominee the near-certain November finalist. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap remain limited and would require major shifts such as unexpected primary outcomes or late-cycle national swings large enough to overcome the district’s baseline Democratic advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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