New York’s 10th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+32, the foundation for the 94.5 percent Democratic outcome priced by traders. Incumbent Dan Goldman captured 82.3 percent in 2024, and forecasters at the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the November 3 general election Solid or Safe Democratic. The June 23 primary between Goldman and Brad Lander has drawn attention and endorsements from unions and progressive groups, yet the winner will face only token Republican opposition in a district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages have produced consistent double-digit margins. A major scandal, health event, or unexpected national swing could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district’s structural Democratic lean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-10 House Election Winner
NY-10 House Election Winner
$43,999 Vol.
$43,999 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
2%
$43,999 Vol.
$43,999 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,869 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$32,130 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 10th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+32, the foundation for the 94.5 percent Democratic outcome priced by traders. Incumbent Dan Goldman captured 82.3 percent in 2024, and forecasters at the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the November 3 general election Solid or Safe Democratic. The June 23 primary between Goldman and Brad Lander has drawn attention and endorsements from unions and progressive groups, yet the winner will face only token Republican opposition in a district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages have produced consistent double-digit margins. A major scandal, health event, or unexpected national swing could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district’s structural Democratic lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$43,999End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 10th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+32, the foundation for the 94.5 percent Democratic outcome priced by traders. Incumbent Dan Goldman captured 82.3 percent in 2024, and forecasters at the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the November 3 general election Solid or Safe Democratic. The June 23 primary between Goldman and Brad Lander has drawn attention and endorsements from unions and progressive groups, yet the winner will face only token Republican opposition in a district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages have produced consistent double-digit margins. A major scandal, health event, or unexpected national swing could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district’s structural Democratic lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$43,999End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 10th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+32, the foundation for the 94.5 percent Democratic outcome priced by traders. Incumbent Dan Goldman captured 82.3 percent in 2024, and forecasters at the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the November 3 general election Solid or Safe Democratic. The June 23 primary between Goldman and Brad Lander has drawn attention and endorsements from unions and progressive groups, yet the winner will face only token Republican opposition in a district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages have produced consistent double-digit margins. A major scandal, health event, or unexpected national swing could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district’s structural Democratic lean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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