The May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District produced early and unofficial results of roughly 104,000 to 105,000 total votes, placing turnout squarely inside the 100-110k range that traders have priced at 99.4 percent. A high-profile contest pitting longtime incumbent Thomas Massie against Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, combined with record outside spending exceeding $35 million, drove elevated participation relative to prior cycles. Late-counted absentee and provisional ballots, along with any final state certification adjustments, represent the only realistic variables that could nudge the precise total outside this narrow band before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourKY-04 Republican Primary: Turnout
KY-04 Republican Primary: Turnout
100-110k 99.5%
80-90k <1%
<80k <1%
90-100k <1%
$46,153 Vol.
$46,153 Vol.
19 mai 2026
<80k
<1%
80-90k
<1%
90-100k
<1%
100-110k
100%
110-120k
<1%
120k+
<1%
100-110k 99.5%
80-90k <1%
<80k <1%
90-100k <1%
$46,153 Vol.
$46,153 Vol.
19 mai 2026
<80k
$5,021 Vol.
<1%
80-90k
$3,959 Vol.
<1%
90-100k
$2,741 Vol.
<1%
100-110k
$13,163 Vol.
100%
110-120k
$6,554 Vol.
<1%
120k+
$14,714 Vol.
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District produced early and unofficial results of roughly 104,000 to 105,000 total votes, placing turnout squarely inside the 100-110k range that traders have priced at 99.4 percent. A high-profile contest pitting longtime incumbent Thomas Massie against Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, combined with record outside spending exceeding $35 million, drove elevated participation relative to prior cycles. Late-counted absentee and provisional ballots, along with any final state certification adjustments, represent the only realistic variables that could nudge the precise total outside this narrow band before resolution.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Marché ouvert : May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
Volume
$46,153Date de fin
19 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District produced early and unofficial results of roughly 104,000 to 105,000 total votes, placing turnout squarely inside the 100-110k range that traders have priced at 99.4 percent. A high-profile contest pitting longtime incumbent Thomas Massie against Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, combined with record outside spending exceeding $35 million, drove elevated participation relative to prior cycles. Late-counted absentee and provisional ballots, along with any final state certification adjustments, represent the only realistic variables that could nudge the precise total outside this narrow band before resolution.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$46,153Date de fin
19 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District produced early and unofficial results of roughly 104,000 to 105,000 total votes, placing turnout squarely inside the 100-110k range that traders have priced at 99.4 percent. A high-profile contest pitting longtime incumbent Thomas Massie against Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, combined with record outside spending exceeding $35 million, drove elevated participation relative to prior cycles. Late-counted absentee and provisional ballots, along with any final state certification adjustments, represent the only realistic variables that could nudge the precise total outside this narrow band before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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