Trader consensus prices Candidate M a slim favorite at 49.5¢ to win Colombia's 2026 presidential election, closely trailed by right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.5¢ and leftist Iván Cepeda Castro at 38.5¢, reflecting volatile late-April polls like AtlasIntel (Cepeda 38%, de la Espriella 30%, Paloma Valencia 21%) and Invamer (Cepeda 44%) that show no first-round majority ahead of May 31 voting. De la Espriella's recent surge stems from security-focused pledges for military offensives amid Petro administration critiques, eroding Cepeda's edge despite the left's March primaries win, while right fragmentation hinders consolidation. A likely June runoff amplifies turnout risks in battlegrounds; impending debates and endorsements could tip the balance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAmericas Quarterly reports high tensions and split conservative support with left-wing candidate leading in polls
Paloma Valencia drops to 19%8%
Market reflected concerns over conservative vote fragmentation reducing Valencia’s chances.
Public controversy with Claudia López over derogatory remarks further damages Dávila’s public image
After her campaign ended, Dávila engaged in a public dispute with another presidential candidate, reflecting ongoing political tensions but no impact on her electoral chances.
Final polls confirm Fajardo's marginal position with support between 2.5% and 4.2%, well below the threshold for significant electoral impact, solidifying market consensus on his
Sergio Fajardo (DC) dips to 0%1%
Final polls confirm Fajardo's marginal position with support between 2.5% and 4.2%, well below the threshold for significant electoral impact, solidifying market consensus on his loss
Polls confirm Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with around 44%, consolidating his position as front-runner before the election
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 39%4%
Polls confirm Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with around 44%, consolidating his position as front-runner before the election
Minister Armando Benedetti’s video accusing De la Espriella’s campaign supporters of wrongdoing sparks a public dispute, with De la Espriella condemning the threats, leading to a
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%17%
Minister Armando Benedetti’s video accusing De la Espriella’s campaign supporters of wrongdoing sparks a public dispute, with De la Espriella condemning the threats, leading to a rallying of his base and a
Vice-presidential running mate Juan Daniel Oviedo reassures voters on minority rights protections, aiming to broaden appeal
Paloma Valencia drops to 19%8%
Despite efforts to moderate image, market
Follow-up polls confirm López’s support remains under 2% after the primary and withdrawal, cementing her marginalization in the race and maintaining her market
Follow-up polls confirm López’s support remains under 2% after the primary and withdrawal, cementing her marginalization in the race and maintaining her market
Polls show Iván Cepeda’s support rising by over 7 points, reflecting growing voter confidence ahead of the May 31 election
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 43%4%
Polls show Iván Cepeda’s support rising by over 7 points, reflecting growing voter confidence ahead of the May 31 election
Polls show Fajardo's support effectively at zero, reflecting his failure to consolidate a significant voter base amid a polarized and competitive race
Sergio Fajardo (DC) dips to 0%1%
Polls show Fajardo's support effectively at zero, reflecting his failure to consolidate a significant voter base amid a polarized and competitive race
Internal conservative tensions rise as rival Abelardo de la Espriella criticizes Valencia for avoiding debates and being part of the establishment
Paloma Valencia drops to 31%9%
Public disputes within the right-wing camp caused a market pullback.
Valencia peaks at 47% amid strong campaign momentum and consolidation of conservative support
Paloma Valencia jumps to 47%7%
Market optimism peaked as Valencia consolidated her base and gained momentum.
President Gustavo Petro reveals CIA has concrete intelligence on a possible assassination attempt against Iván Cepeda, highlighting security risks and increasing public sympathy
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 39%4%
President Gustavo Petro reveals CIA has concrete intelligence on a possible assassination attempt against Iván Cepeda, highlighting security risks and increasing public sympathy
De la Espriella signs the "Compromiso por la Vida y la Familia," emphasizing conservative social values, which helps regain support among traditional voters
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 27%14%
De la Espriella signs the "Compromiso por la Vida y la Familia," emphasizing conservative social values, which helps regain support among traditional voters
Claudia López officially withdraws her independent presidential candidacy after the final ballot is set, endorsing Iván Cepeda, effectively ending her realistic path to victory
Claudia López (IND) dips to 0%1%
Claudia López officially withdraws her independent presidential candidacy after the final ballot is set, endorsing Iván Cepeda, effectively ending her realistic path to victory and causing her market
Official ballot for the May 31 election is unveiled;
Claudia López (IND) dips to 1%2%
López’s name remains on the ballot but her declining poll numbers and coalition’s failure to cross reimbursement thresholds underscore her marginalization
Paloma Valencia campaigns on oil and mining boom to challenge Petro’s green agenda, signaling economic policy shift
Her economic platform attracted investor interest, sustaining her market position.
Follow‑up poll shows López’s backing falls back to under 2 % after the primary, confirming her marginalisation
Claudia López (IND) dips to 0%1%
Follow‑up poll shows López’s backing falls back to under 2 % after the primary, confirming her marginalisation
Bloomberg reports Paloma Valencia’s surprising primary win revives hopes for a market-friendly administration
Paloma Valencia surges to 36%26%
Bloomberg coverage highlighted Valencia’s appeal to investors, contributing to a sharp market rally.
Paloma Valencia becomes official Democratic Center candidate after wide margin victory over María Fernanda Cabal
Paloma Valencia rises to 40%4%
Official nomination solidified her status, driving further
Vicky Dávila loses the right-wing presidential primary to Paloma Valencia, ending her presidential bid
Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 0%3%
Dávila was decisively defeated in the March 8 primary, effectively eliminating her from the race; she subsequently announced her return to journalism, marking the end of her presidential campaign.
Colombia holds legislative elections and interparty presidential primaries; Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary decisively
Paloma Valencia surges to 36%26%
Valencia’s strong primary win and good legislative results for her party boosted market confidence in her candidacy as a main contender.
Paloma Valencia's victory in the Gran Consulta por Colombia strengthens the right-wing opposition, further squeezing Fajardo's moderate lane
Sergio Fajardo (DC) dips to 1%1%
Paloma Valencia's victory in the Gran Consulta por Colombia strengthens the right-wing opposition, further squeezing Fajardo's moderate lane
Claudia López wins the centrist primary with about 8.14% of votes (~572,000), far below poll projections and below the 4% reimbursement threshold, signaling weak momentum and
Claudia López (IND) drops to 3%6%
Claudia López wins the centrist primary with about 8.14% of votes (~572,000), far below poll projections and below the 4% reimbursement threshold, signaling weak momentum and diminishing her viability as a frontrunner
Controversy arises from President Petro’s allegations of illegal intercepts involving De la Espriella and the Thomas Greg & Sons passport contract, which De la Espriella denounces
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 27%10%
Controversy arises from President Petro’s allegations of illegal intercepts involving De la Espriella and the Thomas Greg & Sons passport contract, which De la Espriella denounces as a political montage, causing a temporary dip in market confidence
Iván Cepeda officially registers his presidential candidacy with Indigenous leader Aida Quilcué as running mate, reinforcing his campaign’s inclusivity and peace platform
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 56%17%
Iván Cepeda officially registers his presidential candidacy with Indigenous leader Aida Quilcué as running mate, reinforcing his campaign’s inclusivity and peace platform
Supreme Court of Colombia accepts Cepeda’s extraordinary appeal (casación) on the Uribe case, signaling a possible reversal in his favour |
Iván Cepedo Castro jumps to 56%14%
Supreme Court of Colombia accepts Cepeda’s extraordinary appeal (casación) on the Uribe case, signaling a possible reversal in his favour |
Colombia’s National Civil Registry invalidates over 500,000 of Vicky Dávila’s signature endorsements
Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 3%3%
A major setback occurred when the electoral authority annulled a large portion of her citizen endorsements required for candidacy registration, undermining her campaign's momentum and credibility.
Cepeda files criminal complaint against former President Andrés Pastrana over alleged misuse of military assets linked to Jeffrey Epstein associate, raising his profile on
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 45%5%
Cepeda files criminal complaint against former President Andrés Pastrana over alleged misuse of military assets linked to Jeffrey Epstein associate, raising his profile on anti-corruption and accountability
Colombia’s National Electoral Council excludes Cepeda from a left-wing interparty primary, forcing him to run directly in the first round, complicating left-wing unity
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 41%3%
Colombia’s National Electoral Council excludes Cepeda from a left-wing interparty primary, forcing him to run directly in the first round, complicating left-wing unity
Public letter to U.S. President Trump urging scrutiny of Colombian democracy and criticizing President Gustavo Petro, increasing his visibility and appeal among anti-Petro voters
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Public letter to U.S. President Trump urging scrutiny of Colombian democracy and criticizing President Gustavo Petro, increasing his visibility and appeal among anti-Petro voters
Polls indicate a sharp decline in Fajardo's support, dropping to around 5%, as other candidates gain momentum and polarization intensifies, limiting his centrist appeal
Sergio Fajardo (DC) drops to 5%6%
Polls indicate a sharp decline in Fajardo's support, dropping to around 5%, as other candidates gain momentum and polarization intensifies, limiting his centrist appeal
De la Espriella signs the international far-right "Carta de Madrid" in Spain alongside leaders like Santiago Abascal and Javier Milei, signaling global right-wing alliances and
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
De la Espriella signs the international far-right "Carta de Madrid" in Spain alongside leaders like Santiago Abascal and Javier Milei, signaling global right-wing alliances and boosting his profile
Announces José Manuel Restrepo, former finance minister, as his vice-presidential running mate, adding establishment credibility to his campaign
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Announces José Manuel Restrepo, former finance minister, as his vice-presidential running mate, adding establishment credibility to his campaign
Early polling shows conservative candidate Vicky Dávila leading, with Paloma Valencia polling lower
Paloma Valencia jumps to 10%5%
Market responded to polling data indicating Valencia's modest early support, reflecting uncertainty about her standing among conservatives.
Paloma Valencia wins Democratic Center primary, becoming the party’s first female presidential candidate
Paloma Valencia plunges to 5%17%
Valencia's primary victory officially positioned her as the Democratic Center's candidate, marking a significant milestone and boosting her visibility, though initial market reaction was volatile.
De la Espriella files lawsuits challenging the government’s economic emergency decree, reinforcing his image as a strong opposition figure and appealing to conservative voters
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 41%5%
De la Espriella files lawsuits challenging the government’s economic emergency decree, reinforcing his image as a strong opposition figure and appealing to conservative voters
Superior Tribunal of Bogotá overturns Uribe’s conviction citing procedural flaws, creating uncertainty around Cepeda’s legal victory and impacting his campaign momentum
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 29%14%
Superior Tribunal of Bogotá overturns Uribe’s conviction citing procedural flaws, creating uncertainty around Cepeda’s legal victory and impacting his campaign momentum
Colombian criminal court convicts former President Álvaro Uribe of bribery and procedural fraud, a case in which Cepeda was a key plaintiff, boosting Cepeda’s political profile
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 43%30%
Colombian criminal court convicts former President Álvaro Uribe of bribery and procedural fraud, a case in which Cepeda was a key plaintiff, boosting Cepeda’s political profile
Endorsement by the Medellín mayor’s movement "Creemos," led by Federico Gutiérrez, consolidating right-wing support and increasing his chances in the race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 47%9%
Endorsement by the Medellín mayor’s movement "Creemos," led by Federico Gutiérrez, consolidating right-wing support and increasing his chances in the race
First public poll after lifting of electoral poll ban shows Fajardo among the top three candidates alongside Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, but with a cautious tone due
Sergio Fajardo (DC) rises to 16%2%
First public poll after lifting of electoral poll ban shows Fajardo among the top three candidates alongside Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, but with a cautious tone due to many undecided voters and a fragmented race
Iván Cepeda wins Historic Pact party primary with 64% of the vote, solidifying his status as the coalition’s presidential candidate
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 21%7%
Iván Cepeda wins Historic Pact party primary with 64% of the vote, solidifying his status as the coalition’s presidential candidate
Colombia’s National Civil Registry invalidates nearly half of the signatures backing Claudia López’s independent presidential bid, significantly cutting her official support and
Claudia López (IND) drops to 6%5%
Colombia’s National Civil Registry invalidates nearly half of the signatures backing Claudia López’s independent presidential bid, significantly cutting her official support and credibility ahead of the primaries
Attack on De la Espriella’s campaign team in Arauca, where his coordinator’s vehicle was burned, drawing national attention and sympathy, briefly boosting his support
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 39%18%
Attack on De la Espriella’s campaign team in Arauca, where his coordinator’s vehicle was burned, drawing national attention and sympathy, briefly boosting his support
Iván Cepeda announces presidential candidacy for 2026 elections, positioning himself as a leading left-wing candidate advocating peace and human rights
Iván Cepeda announces presidential candidacy for 2026 elections, positioning himself as a leading left-wing candidate advocating peace and human rights
Early polls show Sergio Fajardo leading or near the top among candidates, reflecting initial optimism about his chances in a fragmented field
Sergio Fajardo (DC) jumps to 21%7%
Early polls show Sergio Fajardo leading or near the top among candidates, reflecting initial optimism about his chances in a fragmented field
Death of Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay after assassination attempt
Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 18%10%
The assassination of a prominent right-wing candidate intensified political instability and shifted right-wing support dynamics, negatively impacting Dávila's standing amid a fragmented conservative field.
Claudia López announces her independent presidential candidacy, positioning herself as a centrist former Bogotá mayor with executive experience and political independence,
Claudia López announces her independent presidential candidacy, positioning herself as a centrist former Bogotá mayor with executive experience and political independence, initially driving market optimism for her chances
Sergio Fajardo officially announces his presidential candidacy for the 2026 elections, emphasizing a centrist platform focused on security, anti-corruption, and governance reforms
Sergio Fajardo officially announces his presidential candidacy for the 2026 elections, emphasizing a centrist platform focused on security, anti-corruption, and governance reforms
Abelardo de la Espriella officially announces his presidential candidacy and launches the "Defensores de la Patria" movement, positioning himself as a far-right outsider focused
Abelardo de la Espriella officially announces his presidential candidacy and launches the "Defensores de la Patria" movement, positioning himself as a far-right outsider focused on law and order, which initially set the market
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