Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rafael López Aliaga as the likely first-round winner in Peru's 2026 presidential election, with implied odds at 52.5%, reflecting his surge in recent national polls amid a fragmented field of over 40 candidates. Early surveys from Ipsos and Datum, released in late 2024, show López Aliaga leading at 12-15% support, boosted by his Lima mayoral record on security and anti-corruption, contrasting with President Boluarte's low approval and economic woes. Challengers like Jorge Nieto (18%) gain from technocratic appeal as ex-defense minister, while Roberto Sánchez Palomino (17%) draws leftist votes; others trail due to scandals or weak name recognition. Upcoming candidate registrations by March 2025 could shift dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourRafael López Aliaga 50%
Jorge Nieto 18%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 17%
César Acuña 17%

Rafael López Aliaga
53%

Jorge Nieto
18%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
17%

César Acuña
17%

Carlos Álvarez
17%

Mesías Guevara
17%

Mario Vizcarra
16%

Yonhy Lescano
16%

Roberto Chiabra
16%

José Williams
16%

Fernando Olivera
16%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
16%

Marisol Pérez Tello
16%

José Luna
16%

Alfonso López Chau
16%

Enrique Valderrama
16%

Ricardo Belmont
16%

Fiorella Molinelli
15%

Wolfgang Grozo
12%

Keiko Fujimori
11%

Vladimir Cerrón
11%

Carlos Espá
11%

George Forsyth
6%
Rafael López Aliaga 50%
Jorge Nieto 18%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 17%
César Acuña 17%

Rafael López Aliaga
53%

Jorge Nieto
18%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
17%

César Acuña
17%

Carlos Álvarez
17%

Mesías Guevara
17%

Mario Vizcarra
16%

Yonhy Lescano
16%

Roberto Chiabra
16%

José Williams
16%

Fernando Olivera
16%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
16%

Marisol Pérez Tello
16%

José Luna
16%

Alfonso López Chau
16%

Enrique Valderrama
16%

Ricardo Belmont
16%

Fiorella Molinelli
15%

Wolfgang Grozo
12%

Keiko Fujimori
11%

Vladimir Cerrón
11%

Carlos Espá
11%

George Forsyth
6%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rafael López Aliaga as the likely first-round winner in Peru's 2026 presidential election, with implied odds at 52.5%, reflecting his surge in recent national polls amid a fragmented field of over 40 candidates. Early surveys from Ipsos and Datum, released in late 2024, show López Aliaga leading at 12-15% support, boosted by his Lima mayoral record on security and anti-corruption, contrasting with President Boluarte's low approval and economic woes. Challengers like Jorge Nieto (18%) gain from technocratic appeal as ex-defense minister, while Roberto Sánchez Palomino (17%) draws leftist votes; others trail due to scandals or weak name recognition. Upcoming candidate registrations by March 2025 could shift dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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