Trader consensus on Polymarket for Elon Musk's X posts in April 2026 remains tightly fragmented, with top bins 1200-1239 (9.6% implied probability), 1400-1439 (9.2%), and 1360-1399 (9.1%) reflecting his variable daily posting rate of 25-60 tweets amid Tesla FSD hype, Optimus robot updates, and political commentary. Recent March short-term markets resolved around 30-50 posts per day on average—higher during announcement bursts like Cybercab production ramps, lower in quieter engineering phases—driving this 1200-1500 monthly projection for the 30-day period. Competitive dynamics hinge on event-driven spikes versus steady engagement as X owner; early April pace and Q1 earnings could swing momentum toward higher bins if viral moments emerge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour1200-1239 10.1%
1400-1439 9.3%
1360-1399 9.2%
1320-1359 9.0%
$4,362,378 Vol.
$4,362,378 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
2%
840-879
<1%
880-919
1%
920-959
2%
960-999
1%
1000-1039
3%
1040-1079
2%
1080-1119
3%
1120-1159
3%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
10%
1240-1279
8%
1280-1319
8%
1320-1359
9%
1360-1399
9%
1400-1439
9%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
7%
1520-1559
4%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
3%
1680-1759
2%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
3%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
1200-1239 10.1%
1400-1439 9.3%
1360-1399 9.2%
1320-1359 9.0%
$4,362,378 Vol.
$4,362,378 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
2%
840-879
<1%
880-919
1%
920-959
2%
960-999
1%
1000-1039
3%
1040-1079
2%
1080-1119
3%
1120-1159
3%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
10%
1240-1279
8%
1280-1319
8%
1320-1359
9%
1360-1399
9%
1400-1439
9%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
7%
1520-1559
4%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
3%
1680-1759
2%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
3%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket for Elon Musk's X posts in April 2026 remains tightly fragmented, with top bins 1200-1239 (9.6% implied probability), 1400-1439 (9.2%), and 1360-1399 (9.1%) reflecting his variable daily posting rate of 25-60 tweets amid Tesla FSD hype, Optimus robot updates, and political commentary. Recent March short-term markets resolved around 30-50 posts per day on average—higher during announcement bursts like Cybercab production ramps, lower in quieter engineering phases—driving this 1200-1500 monthly projection for the 30-day period. Competitive dynamics hinge on event-driven spikes versus steady engagement as X owner; early April pace and Q1 earnings could swing momentum toward higher bins if viral moments emerge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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