Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 320-399 tweets during March 24-31, 2026, with 320-339 and 340-359 ranges each at 11.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations of his hyperactive X posting rhythm amid political turbulence and business milestones. This clustering stems from recent patterns, where Musk averaged 30-50 daily posts during 2024 election fervor and Tesla earnings drama, often spiking with replies and memes. Key differentiators include potential Q1 Tesla results or SpaceX launches that week, versus quieter periods dipping below 300; historical volatility around government roles adds uncertainty, keeping lower bins like 280-319 viable at 8.5% as hedges against event lulls.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour320-339 12%
340-359 12%
360-379 10%
280-299 9%
$595,789 Vol.
$595,789 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
3%
220-239
5%
240-259
8%
260-279
7%
280-299
9%
300-319
9%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
10%
380-399
9%
400-419
6%
420-439
5%
440-459
4%
460-479
3%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
1%
580+
<1%
320-339 12%
340-359 12%
360-379 10%
280-299 9%
$595,789 Vol.
$595,789 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
3%
220-239
5%
240-259
8%
260-279
7%
280-299
9%
300-319
9%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
10%
380-399
9%
400-419
6%
420-439
5%
440-459
4%
460-479
3%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 320-399 tweets during March 24-31, 2026, with 320-339 and 340-359 ranges each at 11.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations of his hyperactive X posting rhythm amid political turbulence and business milestones. This clustering stems from recent patterns, where Musk averaged 30-50 daily posts during 2024 election fervor and Tesla earnings drama, often spiking with replies and memes. Key differentiators include potential Q1 Tesla results or SpaceX launches that week, versus quieter periods dipping below 300; historical volatility around government roles adds uncertainty, keeping lower bins like 280-319 viable at 8.5% as hedges against event lulls.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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