Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 98.4% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus on the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target amid resilient economic data. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report revealed 178,000 jobs added—far exceeding 59,000 forecasts—with unemployment steady at 4.3%, bolstering the labor market and diminishing cut urgency following February CPI's sticky 2.4% annual rise. Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid Iran conflict-driven oil spikes and elevated inflation projections from the March dot plot. Upside risks to this positioning include softer April data or geopolitical de-escalation, though trader sentiment sees scant 1.4% combined odds for hikes or cuts before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Fed en avril ?
Décision de la Fed en avril ?
Aucun changement 98.4%
réduction de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus <1%
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$50,240,702 Vol.
$50,240,702 Vol.
29 avr. 2026
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
réduction de 25 points de base
1%
Aucun changement
98%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus
1%
Aucun changement 98.4%
réduction de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus <1%
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$50,240,702 Vol.
$50,240,702 Vol.
29 avr. 2026
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$17,354,796 Vol.
<1%
réduction de 25 points de base
$10,634,446 Vol.
1%
Aucun changement
$11,045,035 Vol.
98%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus
$11,208,538 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 98.4% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus on the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target amid resilient economic data. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report revealed 178,000 jobs added—far exceeding 59,000 forecasts—with unemployment steady at 4.3%, bolstering the labor market and diminishing cut urgency following February CPI's sticky 2.4% annual rise. Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid Iran conflict-driven oil spikes and elevated inflation projections from the March dot plot. Upside risks to this positioning include softer April data or geopolitical de-escalation, though trader sentiment sees scant 1.4% combined odds for hikes or cuts before resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$50,240,702Date de fin
29 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 98.4% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus on the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target amid resilient economic data. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report revealed 178,000 jobs added—far exceeding 59,000 forecasts—with unemployment steady at 4.3%, bolstering the labor market and diminishing cut urgency following February CPI's sticky 2.4% annual rise. Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid Iran conflict-driven oil spikes and elevated inflation projections from the March dot plot. Upside risks to this positioning include softer April data or geopolitical de-escalation, though trader sentiment sees scant 1.4% combined odds for hikes or cuts before resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$50,240,702Date de fin
29 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 98.4% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus on the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target amid resilient economic data. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report revealed 178,000 jobs added—far exceeding 59,000 forecasts—with unemployment steady at 4.3%, bolstering the labor market and diminishing cut urgency following February CPI's sticky 2.4% annual rise. Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid Iran conflict-driven oil spikes and elevated inflation projections from the March dot plot. Upside risks to this positioning include softer April data or geopolitical de-escalation, though trader sentiment sees scant 1.4% combined odds for hikes or cuts before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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