Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98.4% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust March 2026 nonfarm payrolls of 178,000—far exceeding consensus estimates of 60,000—and steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, underscoring a resilient labor market and persistent price pressures amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict. The Fed's March hold at 3.50%-3.75%, paired with its dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026, aligns with CME FedWatch futures implying near-certainty of a pause, as solid economic growth reduces urgency for easing. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected March CPI on April 10 or weakening job data, potentially tilting sentiment toward a 25 basis point cut.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Fed en avril ?
Décision de la Fed en avril ?
Aucun changement 98.4%
réduction de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus <1%
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$50,453,857 Vol.
$50,453,857 Vol.
29 avr. 2026
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
réduction de 25 points de base
1%
Aucun changement
98%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus
1%
Aucun changement 98.4%
réduction de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus <1%
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$50,453,857 Vol.
$50,453,857 Vol.
29 avr. 2026
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$17,398,783 Vol.
<1%
réduction de 25 points de base
$10,690,244 Vol.
1%
Aucun changement
$11,099,142 Vol.
98%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus
$11,265,886 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98.4% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust March 2026 nonfarm payrolls of 178,000—far exceeding consensus estimates of 60,000—and steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, underscoring a resilient labor market and persistent price pressures amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict. The Fed's March hold at 3.50%-3.75%, paired with its dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026, aligns with CME FedWatch futures implying near-certainty of a pause, as solid economic growth reduces urgency for easing. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected March CPI on April 10 or weakening job data, potentially tilting sentiment toward a 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$50,453,857Date de fin
29 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98.4% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust March 2026 nonfarm payrolls of 178,000—far exceeding consensus estimates of 60,000—and steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, underscoring a resilient labor market and persistent price pressures amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict. The Fed's March hold at 3.50%-3.75%, paired with its dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026, aligns with CME FedWatch futures implying near-certainty of a pause, as solid economic growth reduces urgency for easing. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected March CPI on April 10 or weakening job data, potentially tilting sentiment toward a 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$50,453,857Date de fin
29 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98.4% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust March 2026 nonfarm payrolls of 178,000—far exceeding consensus estimates of 60,000—and steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, underscoring a resilient labor market and persistent price pressures amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict. The Fed's March hold at 3.50%-3.75%, paired with its dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026, aligns with CME FedWatch futures implying near-certainty of a pause, as solid economic growth reduces urgency for easing. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected March CPI on April 10 or weakening job data, potentially tilting sentiment toward a 25 basis point cut.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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