Polymarket traders reflect overwhelming consensus with a 97.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range at the June 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by real capital amid persistent inflation pressures and labor market resilience. Today's April 2026 Consumer Price Index revealed 3.8% year-over-year headline inflation—hotter than the prior 3.3% and consensus forecasts—while core measures remained sticky, dashing rate-cut hopes. Last week's nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling economic strength that aligns with the Fed's April 28-29 decision to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%. The wisdom of crowds prices in patience from Chair Powell's recent communications. Realistic challenges include a sharp May CPI drop on June 10 or weakening jobless claims data tilting toward easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMarket consensus solidifies around no change in the June Fed decision as economic indicators and Fed communications align on a steady policy path
Market consensus solidifies around no change in the June Fed decision as economic indicators and Fed communications align on a steady policy path
BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation and labor market strength
25 bps increase dips to 1%1%
Major banks revised their forecasts, expecting the Fed to hold rates longer due to persistent inflation and a strong labor market, further reducing the likelihood of a June 25 bps increase.
Fed Chair Powell's remarks emphasize data-driven approach and signal no imminent rate moves, pushing no-change probability to near certainty
No change rises to 98%2%
Fed Chair Powell's remarks emphasize data-driven approach and signal no imminent rate moves, pushing no-change probability to near certainty
Economic indicators confirm steady inflation and cautious Fed stance, pushing the 25 bps cut probability down to near historical lows
25 bps decrease dips to 2%2%
Economic indicators confirm steady inflation and cautious Fed stance, pushing the 25 bps cut probability down to near historical lows
Treasury yields rise modestly as investors
No change rises to 96%2%
Treasury yields rise modestly as investors
Market Fully
50+ bps decrease dips to 0%1%
By early May, the market consensus aligned with Fed guidance indicating no significant rate cuts in the near term, driving the probability of a 50+ bps decrease to zero.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in April meeting, with Chair Powell confirming no hikes expected in near term
50+ bps increase dips to 0%1%
The Fed's decision to maintain rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting and Powell's comments on the complex environment further diminished market bets on a large rate increase in June.
Fed keeps rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April, highlights Middle East conflict risks
25 bps increase dips to 2%4%
The April FOMC statement maintained the current rate range and noted geopolitical risks increasing economic uncertainty, leading markets to lower the odds of a June hike.
Fed officials reiterate in public comments that the economy is on track and inflation pressures are moderating, further solidifying market belief in no rate change
No change jumps to 93%8%
Fed officials reiterate in public comments that the economy is on track and inflation pressures are moderating, further solidifying market belief in no rate change
Fed officials' speeches emphasize inflation risks and the need to maintain current rates, further diminishing market expectations for a rate cut
25 bps decrease dips to 4%1%
Fed officials' speeches emphasize inflation risks and the need to maintain current rates, further diminishing market expectations for a rate cut
Reports show stronger-than-expected economic data and labor market resilience, leading markets to sharply lower probability of a 25 bps cut in June 2026
25 bps decrease dips to 7%4%
Reports show stronger-than-expected economic data and labor market resilience, leading markets to sharply lower probability of a 25 bps cut in June 2026
March labor market report shows cooling but stable employment, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in June
No change surges to 86%26%
March labor market report shows cooling but stable employment, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in June
Fed’s Cautious Stance and Mixed Economic Data Keep Large Rate Cut Probability Low
50+ bps decrease dips to 1%3%
Ongoing cautious Fed messaging and mixed labor market signals further diminished expectations for a large rate cut in June.
Market reacts to Fed communications indicating inflation remains sticky and labor market conditions are improving, reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts
25 bps decrease rises to 36%4%
Market reacts to Fed communications indicating inflation remains sticky and labor market conditions are improving, reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts
Market reacts to Fed's March meeting hold and ongoing inflation concerns
25 bps increase rises to 6%4%
The Fed held rates steady again in March 2026, emphasizing inflation uncertainty and energy
Fed announces it will begin purchasing short-term Treasury bills to maintain ample bank reserves, signaling a more accommodative stance but no immediate rate changes expected
No change jumps to 50%8%
Fed announces it will begin purchasing short-term Treasury bills to maintain ample bank reserves, signaling a more accommodative stance but no immediate rate changes expected
Renewed Market Doubts on Large Rate Cuts as Fed Signals Gradual Approach
50+ bps decrease jumps to 12%5%
Fed communications and economic data suggested a more gradual easing path, reducing confidence in a 50+ bps cut and causing
Fed officials reiterate expectations for only two rate cuts in 2025 and trim long-term projections, signaling a more cautious easing path amid persistent inflation around 3% and
25 bps decrease dips to 52%4%
Fed officials reiterate expectations for only two rate cuts in 2025 and trim long-term projections, signaling a more cautious easing path amid persistent inflation around 3% and slowing GDP growth
Fed officials' speeches emphasize patience and data-dependence in future rate decisions amid signs of economic stabilization, boosting confidence in a no-change scenario
No change jumps to 46%11%
Fed officials' speeches emphasize patience and data-dependence in future rate decisions amid signs of economic stabilization, boosting confidence in a no-change scenario
Market Reacts to Fed Chair Powell’s Caution on December Rate Cut and Data Delays
50+ bps decrease jumps to 15%7%
Powell’s remarks that a December cut was not guaranteed, combined with delayed economic data due to government shutdown, increased uncertainty and briefly raised expectations for a large cut.
FOMC minutes reveal resilient economy but unchanged inflation and unemployment forecasts
25 bps increase rises to 5%2%
Minutes from the January 2026 FOMC meeting showed optimism about economic growth but little change in inflation or unemployment expectations, briefly boosting the chance of a 25 bps hike.
January economic data shows mixed signals with some labor market softening but inflation remaining somewhat elevated, leading to uncertainty about further Fed rate cuts
No change dips to 43%4%
January economic data shows mixed signals with some labor market softening but inflation remaining somewhat elevated, leading to uncertainty about further Fed rate cuts
Market reacts to Fed's cautious outlook and no immediate plans for rate hikes amid stable labor market and inflation concerns
50+ bps increase dips to 0%3%
Following the December meeting, investors adjusted expectations downward as the Fed emphasized economic uncertainties and a stabilizing job market, making a 50+ bps hike less likely.
Strong U.S. Job Growth in September Reduces Odds of December Rate Cut, Shifting Market Expectations
50+ bps decrease rises to 11%3%
Robust employment data led economists and traders to lower the probability of imminent rate cuts, causing a temporary dip in the likelihood of a large rate decrease.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut Reveals Deep Divisions Among Officials
50+ bps decrease dips to 8%2%
The 9-3 vote on the December rate cut exposed significant internal disagreements, highlighting uncertainty about the path of monetary policy and dampening expectations for aggressive rate reductions.
Release of Fed minutes reveals sharp dissent within the FOMC over rate path and 2025 outlook, highlighting uncertainty and division on further easing;
25 bps decrease rises to 44%4%
some officials oppose additional cuts while others favor cautious easing
Federal Reserve Projects Only One Additional Rate Cut in 2026 Amid Divided Policymaker Views
50+ bps decrease dips to 10%2%
The December FOMC Summary of Economic Projections showed a split among officials, with equal numbers expecting zero, one, or two cuts, signaling a cautious and uncertain outlook that reduced the probability of large cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025 amid slowing growth and rising unemployment risks;
25 bps decrease drops to 42%8%
Fed Chair Powell signals data-dependent approach with no commitment to further cuts soon
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasizes inflation remains above target and signals cautious approach to future rate cuts, disappointing markets expecting more aggressive easing
25 bps decrease dips to 40%2%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasizes inflation remains above target and signals cautious approach to future rate cuts, disappointing markets expecting more aggressive easing
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December meeting, signaling a "hawkish cut" with dissent from three members and indicating only one more rate cut in 2026
50+ bps increase drops to 4%6%
The Fed lowered the federal funds target range to 3.5%-3.75%, but the split vote and cautious forward guidance suggested limited further easing, reducing expectations for a large rate hike in June 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at December meeting, signaling cautious approach amid inflation uncertainty
25 bps increase plunges to 7%18%
The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged in December 2025, coupled with a cautious tone on inflation and economic outlook, led markets to sharply reduce expectations for a June rate hike.
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rate by 25 Basis Points for the Third Time in 2025, Signaling Caution on Further Cuts
50+ bps decrease dips to 12%4%
The Fed lowered rates to 3.50%-3.75% but emphasized that further cuts depend on clear improvements in inflation and employment, creating uncertainty about aggressive easing. This tempered expectations for large rate decreases in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time in 2025 but signals a likely pause in further cuts soon, reflecting a divided committee and
No change drops to 44%13%
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time in 2025 but signals a likely pause in further cuts soon, reflecting a divided committee and cautious outlook on inflation and labor market conditions
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