Traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year and a 4.3% unemployment rate. Recent labor market resilience and steady core price pressures have kept the policy rate anchored in the 3.50%-3.75% range, consistent with the April decision and market pricing that shows minimal odds for a 25-basis-point shift in either direction. This consensus aligns with the Fed’s dual mandate focus, where incoming data have not yet justified easing or tightening. A sharper-than-expected drop in inflation readings or a material softening in employment figures ahead of the meeting could still alter the rate path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourInvestors increase bets on Fed rate hike later in 2026 after hotter inflation data
No change rises to 98%1%
Following hotter-than-expected inflation data, investors raised the probability of a Fed rate hike later in the year, complicating the outlook for June but reinforcing the market's dominant expectation of no change at the upcoming meeting. This reflected uncertainty but did not shift the consensus away from a hold in June.
Powell's term ends as Fed prepares for June 2026 meeting
No change rises to 97%1%
Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends on May 15, 2026, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over. The June 2026 meeting will be the first under Warsh's leadership, with markets pricing a 65% probability of holding rates steady.
Fed’s June meeting statement signals no change to the target rate
No change rises to 98%2%
The official FOMC statement after the June 16‑17 meeting confirmed that the upper bound of the target federal funds range remained unchanged, cementing the market’s final move to near‑certain no‑change pricing.
Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, raising Fed independence concerns
No change rises to 98%1%
The Supreme Court considered President Trump's effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as an attempt to influence Fed policy. The case heightened concerns about political interference but did not alter market expectations for the June rate decision.
Major brokerages scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 amid inflation risks
No change rises to 98%2%
Leading financial institutions like BofA and Goldman Sachs revised their forecasts, pushing back anticipated Fed rate cuts and suggesting the Fed would likely hold rates steady through 2026 due to persistent inflation and a strong labor market. This dampened market expectations for rate decreases at the June meeting.
Inflation data steady, reinforcing Fed’s cautious stance on rate changes
No change rises to 97%1%
December inflation data showed prices holding steady above the Fed’s target, supporting the view that the Fed would maintain rates to ensure inflation progress, aligning with market expectations of no change in June.
Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell
No change rises to 98%2%
The DOJ concluded its criminal investigation into Powell related to the Fed building renovation, removing a major source of political uncertainty. This development reinforced market confidence that the Fed would maintain its current rate policy in June.
Fed’s June meeting minutes hint at a consensus to hold rates steady
No change rises to 98%2%
The released minutes confirmed that the Fed’s policymakers were aligned on a hold, cementing the No change contract at near‑certainty and pushing all cut‑related contracts to near zero.
Fed releases pre‑meeting statement emphasizing data‑driven approach
No change rises to 98%2%
The Fed’s statement ahead of the June meeting stressed that policy would be guided by economic data, not political pressure, nudging the market further toward a No‑change outcome.
Market Price Reaches 96% as June FOMC Decision Approaches
No change rises to 97%1%
As the June 2026 FOMC meeting approached, market prices remained high at 96%, reflecting continued expectations of no rate change. The market was focused on the upcoming decision.
Fed’s May meeting concludes with no rate change as inflation remains above target
No change rises to 98%2%
With inflation still above 2% and no clear labor‑market weakness, the Fed kept rates steady, cementing the No‑change outcome at near‑certainty.
Markets shrug off DOJ probe as Fed independence debate continues
No change rises to 98%2%
Despite ongoing DOJ investigations into Fed Chair Powell, markets remained confident in the Fed's independence and its economic-driven policy decisions. This sentiment contributed to the high market probability of no change in the June interest rate decision.
Fed signals likely to keep rates unchanged at June meeting amid mixed economic data
No change jumps to 98%5%
Ahead of the June meeting, Fed officials indicated a cautious approach, emphasizing economic data and inflation trends rather than political pressures. This stance aligned with market pricing that overwhelmingly favored no change in the target federal funds rate in June 2026.
Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell due to lack of evidence
No change rises to 98%2%
The DOJ concluded its criminal investigation into Powell without charges, citing insufficient evidence. This resolution removed a major source of political uncertainty, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would maintain its current interest rate policy at the June meeting.
Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell
The closure of the DOJ investigation removed a major source of political risk, solidifying expectations that the Fed would maintain its current stance.
Fed’s June meeting expected to hold rates steady as political pressure mounts
No change rises to 98%2%
Analysts cited growing political pressure from the White House and the Supreme Court case over Fed independence, leading the market to near‑certainly price in no change, with the No‑change contract reaching 98 % by early May.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% as Powell presides over final meeting
No change rises to 96%3%
The Fed voted 8-4 to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. Powell's final meeting saw four dissents, with one member advocating a 25bp cut.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in Powell's final meeting as Chair
No change rises to 96%3%
The Fed voted to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% during the April 28-29 meeting, with Chair Jerome Powell signaling a cautious approach amid inflation and labor market concerns. This decision and Powell's remarks increased market confidence in a no-change outcome for June.
FOMC Maintains Rates at 3.5%-3.75% in Final Powell Meeting Before June Decision
No change rises to 96%2%
The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, with the next decision scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. This was Powell's final FOMC meeting as chair.
Justice Department subpoenas Fed amid political pressure
No change jumps to 96%8%
The DOJ’s criminal probe into Chair Powell heightened political tension, leading markets to anticipate that the Fed would avoid any rate moves to preserve its independence, further boosting the "No change" outcome.
Fed Chair Powell attends Supreme Court arguments on Cook case
No change rises to 96%3%
Powell’s presence at the Supreme Court underscored the Fed’s commitment to independence, further cementing market expectations of a steady rate decision.
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 96%5%
The high‑court hearing underscored the administration’s push to reshape the Fed, keeping markets wary of a potential rate‑cut push and sustaining the no‑change stance.
Fed reiterates pause on rate adjustments after April meeting
No change rises to 98%2%
Fed’s post‑meeting statement reiterated a pause on rate adjustments, cementing the “No change” outcome as the market’s near‑certain view.
Fed’s Kevin Warsh nomination cleared by Senate committee
No change rises to 96%2%
With the investigation dropped, the Senate moved forward on Warsh’s confirmation, suggesting continuity in the Fed’s policy stance and bolstering the No‑change bet.
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair
No change rises to 93%3%
The nomination signaled potential for a more dovish chair, but uncertainty over confirmation kept markets favoring the status‑quo, further boosting No‑change.
Inflation remains above target, supporting Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts
No change rises to 96%3%
Data showed inflation stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the case for further rate cuts despite a slowing labor market. This reinforced market expectations for no change in the upcoming June meeting.
DOJ prosecutors attempt to access Fed building amid ongoing investigation
No change rises to 96%3%
Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed's headquarters construction site related to the ongoing investigation into the renovation project. Despite the legal scrutiny, the Fed maintained its stance on rate decisions based on economic conditions, supporting market expectations of no rate change.
Fed signals likely to keep rates steady amid inflation and labor market concerns
No change rises to 95%2%
Ahead of the June meeting, Fed officials indicated a preference to hold rates steady to assess economic conditions, balancing stubborn inflation with a slowing labor market. This cautious stance led markets to strongly favor the no change outcome for the June 2026 Fed decision.
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair
25 bps increase jumps to 30%5%
The nomination suggested a possible shift toward more aggressive rate cuts, briefly reviving interest in the 25‑bps increase contract before the market re‑evaluated the likelihood of a hold.
Inflation remains elevated as consumer spending stays strong
No change rises to 95%2%
Data showed that inflation remained stubbornly above target while consumer spending continued at a healthy pace, signaling a solid economy. This economic backdrop reduced the likelihood of a rate cut and supported market pricing for no change in the Fed's June decision.
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic data and political tensions
No change rises to 93%2%
Ahead of the June meeting, the Fed signaled it would likely keep rates steady, focusing on economic data despite ongoing political and legal challenges. This expectation drove the market price for no change to near certainty.
Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell
No change rises to 94%1%
The Justice Department dropped its criminal probe into Fed Chair Powell, removing a major political uncertainty and clearing the way for Kevin Warsh's confirmation. This development reinforced market confidence in Fed independence and the likelihood of no rate change.
Justice Department ends criminal probe into Powell
No change rises to 94%3%
The DOJ’s decision to drop the investigation removed a major source of political pressure, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would not feel compelled to cut rates before June.
Fed’s April meeting ends with unanimous decision to hold rates
No change surges to 90%27%
A consensus to keep the target range unchanged eliminated any remaining upside for rate‑cut bets, driving the No‑change price toward its peak.
Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court hearing on Fed governor firing case
No change jumps to 93%8%
Powell's attendance at the Supreme Court hearing on the attempted firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook signaled his commitment to defending Fed independence amid political challenges. This reassured markets that the Fed would maintain its current policy stance.
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid political and economic pressures
No change jumps to 92%7%
Ahead of the April meeting, analysts and Fed officials signaled a likely pause in rate changes, focusing on economic data rather than political pressures, which supported the market’s strong pricing for no change in June.
Inflation data shows prices tick up, supporting Fed’s cautious stance
No change rises to 89%2%
November inflation data showed a slight increase in consumer prices and solid consumer spending, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. This data suggested the Fed would be less likely to cut rates soon, supporting the market's no change pricing.
Inflation remains stubbornly elevated in December amid DOJ probe into Powell
No change rises to 94%1%
December inflation data showed prices steady at 2.7% year-over-year, still above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the Fed's policy decisions. The DOJ's criminal probe into Powell heightened concerns about the Fed's independence, but markets continued to price in no rate change for June.
Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before further cuts
No change jumps to 96%6%
March minutes revealed that a majority of Fed participants still see inflation as too high, causing the market to further consolidate on the No‑change outcome, moving its price from 90 % to 96 %.
Fed minutes show split over further rate cuts, many officials favor holding steady
No change surges to 62%16%
Released minutes from the March meeting revealed that most policymakers preferred to keep the policy rate unchanged, pushing the market further toward the no‑change outcome.
Fed holds rates steady at March meeting
No change jumps to 98%12%
The Fed’s March 16‑17 decision to hold rates steady confirmed market expectations, pushing the “No change” price to 98 % and collapsing odds of any move.
Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed chair Powell
No change jumps to 98%12%
The DOJ’s criminal probe into Powell was dropped after a judge found no evidence of wrongdoing. The resolution removed a major source of political risk, causing the market’s final swing to near‑certainty of “No change.”
FOMC Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%-3.75% as Powell's Final Meeting Approaches
No change rises to 89%4%
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, with the next decision scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. This decision marked Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as chair.
Fed Chair Powell attends Supreme Court argument supporting Fed independence
No change surges to 86%23%
Jerome Powell attended the Supreme Court hearing on the Lisa Cook firing case, publicly supporting Fed independence amid political pressure. This reinforced market confidence that the Fed would act based on economic data, not politics, supporting the no change outcome.
Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts
No change surges to 86%22%
Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, despite some openness to future cuts if inflation declines. This solidified market expectations for no change in June, reflected in a price jump for the 'No change' outcome.
Fed keeps rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns
No change surges to 85%24%
At the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, reflecting persistent inflation risks and economic uncertainty. This reinforced market expectations for no rate change in the near term, including the upcoming June meeting.
Supreme Court hears arguments on Lisa Cook firing case
No change jumps to 91%5%
The high‑court hearing on whether Trump can fire Governor Cook added uncertainty about the Fed’s composition, leading markets to favor a status‑quo rate decision.
Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ probe as political interference
No change jumps to 63%8%
Powell’s public defense of the Fed’s independence reassured markets that policy would remain data‑driven, reinforcing expectations of no further change.
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid political and legal pressures
No change rises to 98%2%
Analysts highlighted that recent DOJ subpoenas and the Cook case would likely lead the Fed to hold rates steady at its March meeting, reinforcing the market’s belief that the June meeting would follow suit.
Central bankers issue statement backing Fed independence amid Trump‑Powell clash
No change jumps to 55%13%
Nine major central banks publicly supported Powell, reducing market fears of a politically‑driven rate cut and bolstering the no‑change odds.
Republican senators defend Fed Chair Powell amid Trump administration pressure
No change surges to 85%25%
Several Republican senators publicly supported Fed Chair Powell against the Trump administration's attempts to pressure the Fed, reinforcing the Fed's independence. This political backing helped stabilize market expectations around no rate change.
Fed minutes reveal divided views but no immediate rate cuts planned
No change jumps to 59%6%
Minutes from the Fed's January meeting showed a split among officials on future rate cuts, with most wanting more inflation progress before cutting rates. This underscored a cautious approach, reinforcing market expectations for no change in June.
Fed minutes show split over future rate cuts after strong inflation data
No change surges to 86%26%
Released minutes revealed a deep division among Fed officials, with many favoring a hold. The market interpreted the split as a signal that the June meeting would likely result in no change.
Fed releases statement that it will likely keep rates unchanged at June meeting
No change jumps to 98%6%
A formal Fed communication reaffirmed a hold stance, delivering a decisive boost to the No change contract and driving other contracts toward zero.
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid political turmoil
No change jumps to 59%12%
Analysts projected the Fed would hold rates steady, citing the ongoing DOJ probe and Supreme Court case as reasons the committee would avoid a politically risky cut.
Hiring slows in December despite Fed rate cuts, signaling economic caution
No change surges to 86%22%
December jobs report showed slower hiring despite prior Fed rate cuts, indicating economic weakness and complicating Fed's dual mandate. This data supported market expectations for no rate change in June as the Fed remained cautious about further cuts.
Fed signals hold at March meeting after mixed data
No change surges to 86%23%
Following a mixed batch of inflation and employment reports, Fed officials indicated no urgency to adjust rates, reinforcing market expectations of a hold and pushing the "No change" price toward its peak.
Federal prosecutors seek access to Fed building amid ongoing investigation
No change jumps to 63%7%
Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Federal Reserve's building construction site related to the $2.5 billion renovation under investigation. This reinforced political tensions around the Fed and its chair, contributing to market uncertainty but ultimately did not shift expectations away from no rate change.
Fed’s Jan‑27‑28 meeting minutes show split vote on keeping rates steady
No change jumps to 55%12%
The minutes revealed a 10‑2 vote to hold rates, underscoring strong resistance to further cuts and pushing the No‑change price higher.
Fed signals neutral stance ahead of March meeting
No change surges to 86%18%
Ahead of the March meeting, the Fed reaffirmed a neutral stance, which caused the market’s “No change” price to climb toward 86 %.
Fed minutes show December rate cut was a close call, highlighting committee divisions
No change surges to 60%16%
Minutes from the December Fed meeting revealed significant dissent and uncertainty among officials about rate cuts versus holding steady, reflecting a cautious stance that supported market expectations of no change in June.
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, raising political uncertainty
No change rises to 60%1%
President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Powell introduced uncertainty about future Fed policy, but Warsh’s reputation for intellectual rigor tempered expectations of aggressive rate cuts, keeping no change as the favored outcome.
U.S. and Israel attack Iran, sparking oil price surge
No change drops to 42%5%
The conflict raised global oil prices, reviving inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady rather than cut them.
Iran war escalates, pushing energy prices higher and fueling inflation concerns
No change jumps to 46%9%
The conflict involving the US and Iran led to a shutdown of the Gulf of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, causing energy prices to surge. This geopolitical event heightened inflation risks, making the Fed cautious about cutting rates despite economic growth, reinforcing market expectations of no rate change.
Iran‑Israel conflict spikes oil prices, raising inflation concerns
No change jumps to 64%13%
The outbreak of war in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher, prompting the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance and reinforcing market expectations of no rate change in June.
Iran‑Hormuz conflict spikes oil prices, raising inflation worries
No change jumps to 60%13%
The war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz lifted energy prices, prompting analysts to expect the Fed to stay cautious and keep rates unchanged, pushing the No‑change price higher.
Treasury yields fall after Fed pauses cuts
No change rises to 51%4%
A dip in the 10‑year Treasury yield after the Fed announced a pause in rate cuts lowered long‑term borrowing costs, nudging the market toward the No‑change outcome.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents
No change rises to 96%4%
Bessent’s push for a rule requiring regional presidents to live in their districts was seen as an effort to increase White House influence over the Fed, reinforcing expectations of a politically constrained, unchanged rate policy.
Supreme Court agrees to hear case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook
No change dips to 46%2%
The high court’s decision to consider the Trump administration’s effort to remove Governor Cook signaled potential shifts in Fed board composition, reinforcing market expectations of a steady rate stance.
Powell says Fed will wait before any further rate cuts
No change drops to 38%6%
Powell reiterated that the Fed would “wait and see” on further cuts after three consecutive quarter‑point reductions, reinforcing expectations of a steady rate and supporting the “No change” outcome.
Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts
Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, despite some support for cuts if inflation declines. This cautious stance supported market pricing of no change in June.
Iran war spikes oil prices, raising inflation fears
No change surges to 63%15%
A sudden escalation in the Iran conflict drove oil prices higher, prompting concerns that inflation could stay elevated and that the Fed would likely keep rates unchanged to avoid fueling price pressures.
Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts
No change jumps to 52%8%
Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, despite some dissenters favoring cuts. This signaled a cautious approach, supporting market expectations of no change at the June meeting.
Fed officials signal willingness to keep rates steady amid stubborn inflation
No change jumps to 90%5%
A statement from the Fed after its February meeting emphasized that inflation remains above target, reinforcing expectations of no change and pushing the No‑change price from 85 % to 90 %.
Fed minutes signal need for more inflation progress before another cut
No change jumps to 47%10%
Minutes from the February meeting emphasized that most officials wanted further inflation decline, reducing the probability of a cut and reinforcing the No‑change outcome.
Fed officials divided on rate cuts amid economic uncertainty
No change jumps to 37%5%
Fed minutes from December revealed a split among officials on whether to cut rates or hold steady, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and the labor market. This division contributed to market volatility but ultimately supported the no change consensus as the Fed awaited clearer data.
Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court hearing on Fed governor firing case
No change jumps to 37%5%
Powell's attendance at the Supreme Court hearing on the attempted firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook signaled his support for Fed independence, reassuring markets about the Fed's autonomy in rate decisions.
Economic data shows slowing hiring and persistent inflation
No change jumps to 37%6%
Reports indicated that hiring slowed in December 2025 despite Fed rate cuts, while inflation remained above target. This mixed economic data complicated the Fed's decision-making, supporting market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady at the June meeting to balance inflation control and labor market support.
Prosecutors attempt unannounced site visit at Fed headquarters
No change jumps to 38%8%
Federal prosecutors tried to access the Fed’s renovation site, underscoring the intensity of the investigation and reinforcing market belief that the Fed would not yield to political pressure by changing rates.
Fed officials say inflation still above target, rates likely to hold
No change drops to 30%14%
Fed officials signaled that inflation remained above target and that rates would likely stay steady. The reassurance caused a sharp drop in the “25 bps decrease” probability, moving the market toward “No change”.
Mortgage rates dip as market anticipates further Fed easing
25 bps increase jumps to 37%11%
A fall in 30‑year mortgage rates reflected expectations of additional cuts, briefly lifting the 25 bps increase price before the market reversed later in February.
Trump again pushes for lower rates; Powell warns of political pressure
No change jumps to 98%8%
President Trump publicly reiterated his demand for lower rates while Powell again warned that political pressure would undermine the Fed. The back‑and‑forth reinforced market consensus that the Fed would stay on its current 3.6 % target range, pushing “No change” to an all‑time high of 98 % on May 18.
Supreme Court hears case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 92%8%
The high‑court hearing on whether President Trump can remove Governor Cook signaled potential changes to the Board’s composition, prompting markets to anticipate a cautious Fed that would likely hold rates steady.
Fed minutes show officials want more inflation progress before rate cuts
No change jumps to 46%8%
Minutes from the January Fed meeting revealed most officials favored holding rates steady until inflation falls further, reinforcing market pricing of no change at the June meeting despite some dissenters favoring cuts.
Justice Department subpoenas the Federal Reserve over Chairman Powell’s testimony
25 bps decrease jumps to 45%7%
The unprecedented subpoena heightened political pressure on the Fed, causing traders to price in a higher likelihood of a rate‑cut, which briefly lifted the 25‑bps decrease contract before the market re‑asserted confidence in a hold.
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
No change rises to 47%3%
The Supreme Court considered Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The court appeared inclined to allow Cook to remain, signaling limits on presidential control over the Fed and supporting market expectations of policy stability.
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair
No change jumps to 93%7%
Trump nominated former Fed official Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as chair. Senate hesitation over the nomination, linked to the ongoing DOJ probe, led traders to price in a higher likelihood that the Fed would leave policy unchanged until the leadership issue was resolved.
Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing amid political tensions
No change jumps to 37%5%
The Supreme Court took up a politically charged case regarding President Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, highlighting the ongoing political struggle over the Fed's independence. This event underscored the heightened political risks surrounding Fed policy decisions, reinforcing market expectations of no rate change.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in first 2026 policy decision
No change rises to 48%4%
The Fed maintained its rate at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026, with officials citing subdued job growth and persistent inflation. The decision was widely anticipated, with only two dissenting votes.
Fed minutes reveal majority want inflation progress before rate cuts
No change rises to 48%4%
Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to keep rates steady until inflation falls further, signaling a cautious approach. This reinforced market pricing for no change at the June meeting.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January meeting
The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75% during its January 27-28 meeting, signaling a pause in rate changes amid ongoing inflation concerns. This decision set the tone for market expectations of no immediate rate moves in early 2026.
Trump names Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair
No change drops to 45%5%
Trump’s nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as his successor signaled a possible shift toward higher rates, causing the market to tilt away from “25 bps increase”.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents
No change rises to 47%2%
Bessent’s proposal to let the Board veto regional presidents increased speculation that the White House could gain more control over the Fed, reinforcing expectations of a hold‑steady policy.
Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump's bid to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
No change surges to 86%15%
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on the case to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. While the Court did not immediately rule, the hearing signaled a possible disruption of the board’s composition, prompting market participants to hedge toward a “No change” outcome to avoid volatility from a potential board reshuffle.
Supreme Court appears likely to keep Fed Governor Lisa Cook in office
No change rises to 48%1%
The Supreme Court hearing on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook signaled a probable decision to maintain her position, preserving the current Fed board balance and limiting political influence, which supported market expectations of no rate change.
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 48%6%
The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump can remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a case with implications for Fed independence. The court appeared inclined to keep Cook on the board, signaling judicial support for the Fed's autonomy, which bolstered market confidence in no rate change.
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair
No change jumps to 48%5%
President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, signaling potential continuity but also political influence. Markets reacted by stabilizing expectations around no change, as Warsh was seen as capable but facing challenges in pushing rate cuts.
Top central bankers express full solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid Trump clash
No change jumps to 52%10%
Central bankers worldwide publicly supported Fed Chair Powell following the DOJ investigation and political pressure from President Trump. This global backing reinforced the Fed's independence and market confidence that the Fed would maintain current rates rather than yield to political demands for cuts or hikes.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents
No change jumps to 92%8%
Bessent’s proposal signaled a possible shift in Fed governance that could give the White House more leverage over rate decisions, weakening confidence in any rate‑cut scenario and further boosting No change.
Trump attacks Powell over building renovation and urges credit‑card rate cap
25 bps decrease rises to 54%4%
Trump’s public criticism of Powell’s handling of the Fed building renovation and calls for a 10 % credit‑card‑rate cap raised concerns about political pressure, nudging the market toward “25 bps decrease”.
Supreme Court appears inclined to keep Fed Governor Lisa Cook amid Trump firing attempt
No change surges to 87%24%
The Supreme Court showed skepticism toward President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, reinforcing the Fed's political independence. This legal development bolstered market confidence that the Fed's policy decisions would remain insulated from political interference, supporting the no change outcome.
Justice Department ends criminal probe into Fed Chair Powell
No change jumps to 84%13%
The DOJ announced it was dropping the investigation, removing a major source of political pressure and reinforcing expectations that the Fed would not feel compelled to cut rates before the June meeting.
Trump announces plan to name Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair
No change jumps to 50%5%
President Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, signaling potential changes in Fed leadership. Warsh's nomination raised questions about future rate policy, but his cautious stance and the divided Fed committee suggested limited immediate impact on rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations for no change in June.
Federal prosecutors visit Fed building amid ongoing investigation
No change drops to 42%6%
Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed's construction site related to the renovation investigation, underscoring the administration's persistence despite lack of evidence. Concurrently, President Trump threatened to fire Powell, increasing political tensions but markets remained confident in Fed independence and no rate change.
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid legal and political scrutiny
No change jumps to 53%5%
Ahead of the January Fed meeting, officials signaled a likely hold on interest rates despite ongoing DOJ investigation and political pressure. Chair Powell emphasized economic data as the basis for decisions, reinforcing market confidence in no change at upcoming meetings.
Supreme Court hears case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 42%5%
The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump could fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, an unprecedented move. Powell attended the hearing, signaling Fed leadership's support for independence. This event underscored political tensions but reinforced expectations that the Fed would act based on economic conditions, supporting no rate change.
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change jumps to 37%6%
Federal prosecutors confirmed a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell related to his testimony about the Fed's building renovation. Powell stated this was part of a political effort to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates, which bolstered market confidence that the Fed would maintain independence and keep rates steady.
Stocks close higher despite DOJ probe into Fed Chair Powell
No change rises to 52%4%
Despite the DOJ criminal investigation news, stocks closed higher, indicating investor confidence in the Fed's independence and a steady interest rate outlook. Powell's public rebuke of the probe as politically motivated helped stabilize market expectations toward no rate change.
Central bankers worldwide express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell
No change jumps to 60%13%
Top central bankers from major economies publicly supported Fed Chair Powell amid political attacks and DOJ investigation, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence. This bolstered market confidence that the Fed would maintain its current rate policy, pushing the no change probability higher.
Global central banks issue solidarity statement with Fed Chair Powell
No change jumps to 41%8%
Nine major central banks publicly backed Powell’s independence, temporarily calming markets but not reversing the move toward "No change" as political risk remained high.
Central bankers worldwide express full solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid political pressure
No change rises to 48%4%
Top central bankers from major economies publicly supported Fed Chair Powell, emphasizing the critical importance of central bank independence. This global backing reinforced market expectations that the Fed would resist political pressure and maintain current interest rates.
Top central bankers express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid Trump clash
No change jumps to 52%5%
Central bankers worldwide publicly supported Fed Chair Powell, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence. This international backing reinforced market expectations that the Fed would maintain its current interest rate policy despite political pressures.
Global central bankers express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid Trump clash
Top central bankers worldwide publicly supported Fed Chair Powell, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence. This international backing reinforced market expectations that the Fed would resist political pressure and maintain current rates.
Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ probe as political pressure
No change jumps to 45%8%
Powell issued a rare video statement condemning the DOJ investigation as a pretext to undermine the Fed’s independence in setting interest rates. This public defense reassured markets about the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, supporting the no change outcome in the market.
Treasury Secretary Bessent pushes residency rule for Fed regional presidents
No change jumps to 92%8%
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly urged a residency rule for regional Fed presidents, signaling a push for greater political control. Market participants reacted by moving away from the “25 bps increase” outcome toward “No change”.
Trump says Fed rates are far too high and urges immediate cuts
No change jumps to 71%8%
Trump publicly demanded that the Fed cut rates sharply, calling current rates “far too high.” His aggressive stance reinforced market expectations that the Fed would keep rates unchanged to avoid a political showdown, reinforcing the “No change” price surge.
Supreme Court agrees to hear case on President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
25 bps decrease drops to 38%12%
The pending legal battle raised concerns that the Fed could lose independence, increasing the perceived risk of a politically‑driven rate cut and pulling price support from the 25‑bps decrease contract.
Treasury secretary warns Trump that DOJ probe is a distraction
No change surges to 98%41%
Sources reported Treasury Secretary Bessent warned President Trump about the DOJ probe’s distraction, echoing concerns from Republican senators. The news reinforced market expectations that policymakers would avoid a rate move until the legal cloud cleared, lifting the “No change” price to near‑99 % by early February.
Powell releases video condemning DOJ subpoenas as political pretexts
No change rises to 45%1%
Powell’s public video stating the subpoenas were meant to pressure the Fed to cut rates heightened market fears of political interference, further solidifying bets on no rate change.
DOJ subpoenas Federal Reserve amid investigation into Powell
No change jumps to 55%7%
The Department of Justice subpoenaed the Federal Reserve and threatened criminal indictment of Chair Jerome Powell over his testimony about the Fed's $2.5 billion building renovation. This unprecedented legal pressure raised concerns about the Fed's independence and likely contributed to market caution regarding rate changes.
DOJ subpoenas Federal Reserve and launches criminal investigation into Chair Powell
No change rises to 47%3%
The Department of Justice subpoenaed the Federal Reserve and launched a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about the Fed's building renovations. This unprecedented political pressure raised concerns about the Fed's independence and likely contributed to market caution about rate changes.
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change surges to 98%41%
The DOJ initiated a criminal probe into Powell related to his testimony about Fed building renovations, sparking fears of political interference in rate-setting. Powell called it a 'pretext' to pressure the Fed to lower rates, causing market uncertainty.
Powell rebukes DOJ criminal probe into his testimony about Fed building renovation
No change surges to 98%41%
Powell issued a video statement denouncing the DOJ's criminal investigation into his June testimony about Fed building renovations as politically motivated 'pretexts' to undermine the Fed's independence and pressure rate cuts.
Fed Chair Powell publicly condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pressure
No change jumps to 37%6%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell issued a video statement condemning the Justice Department subpoenas related to his testimony on Fed building renovations, calling them 'pretexts' to punish the Fed for not cutting rates as sharply as President Trump wanted. This reinforced the Fed's stance to base rate decisions on economic data, supporting market expectations of no rate change.
Fed Chair Powell says DOJ subpoenaed the central bank, threatens criminal indictment
No change surges to 63%18%
Powell released a video message confirming that the DOJ had subpoenaed the Fed and threatened a criminal indictment over his June testimony on the Fed’s building renovation. The announcement sparked fears of political interference and pushed the market sharply toward a “No change” outlook as traders anticipated the Fed would avoid any action that could be used against it.
DOJ subpoenas Federal Reserve, threatening criminal indictment of Chair Powell
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the Fed and threatened criminal indictment related to his testimony on the Fed's building renovations. This unprecedented legal pressure raised concerns about Fed independence but did not shift market expectations for rate changes.
Fed Chair Powell reveals DOJ subpoena and criminal threat over testimony
Jerome Powell disclosed that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the Fed and threatened criminal indictment over his June testimony about the Fed's $2.5 billion building renovation. This unprecedented legal pressure highlighted political tensions but reinforced the Fed's independence, contributing to market confidence in a cautious, steady rate policy.
DOJ subpoenas Fed, threatens criminal indictment of Chair Powell
No change rises to 48%4%
The Department of Justice subpoenaed the Federal Reserve and threatened criminal charges against Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about a $2.5 billion Fed building renovation. Powell condemned the probe as politically motivated to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would maintain rates to preserve independence.
Justice Department subpoenas Federal Reserve, threatening criminal indictment of Chair Powell
No change rises to 48%4%
The DOJ launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about a $2.5 billion Fed building renovation, escalating political pressure on the Fed. Powell publicly condemned the probe as a pretext to influence monetary policy, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would maintain rates to preserve independence.
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as Fed chair
No change surges to 85%23%
Trump’s nomination signaled a possible shift toward a more dovish Fed, prompting a further rise in the No‑change price (62 % → 85 %) as markets priced in political resistance to rate cuts.
Powell confirms DOJ criminal probe, calls it political pretext
No change surges to 70%26%
Chair Powell released a video message confirming the Justice Department’s criminal investigation into his testimony about the Fed’s building renovation, describing it as a political “pretext”. The announcement sparked a sharp sell‑off in Fed‑rate‑sensitive markets, pushing the “No change” probability up from the low‑40s to over 70 % within a day.
Supreme Court hearing on Lisa Cook firing case
No change rises to 47%2%
The Supreme Court scheduled oral arguments on the Trump administration’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, signaling potential limits on presidential control over the Fed and bolstering expectations of policy stability.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell rebukes DOJ criminal investigation as political pressure
No change jumps to 56%8%
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell publicly condemned the Department of Justice's criminal investigation into his testimony about the Fed's building renovations, calling it a pretext to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates. This event highlighted political tensions but reinforced the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, supporting market expectations of no rate change.
Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ criminal probe as politically motivated
No change jumps to 57%9%
Following reports of a DOJ criminal investigation into Powell's testimony about Fed building renovations, Powell issued a rare video statement condemning the probe as a politically motivated attempt to influence Fed policy. This bolstered market confidence in Fed independence and reduced expectations for rate cuts.
Fed Chair Powell condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pressure
No change rises to 48%4%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly rebuked the Justice Department's subpoenas related to his testimony on Fed building renovations, calling them 'pretexts' aimed at pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. This statement underscored the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, bolstering market confidence in no rate change.
Justice Department subpoenas Fed amid investigation of Powell’s testimony
No change drops to 36%5%
The DOJ’s criminal probe heightened political risk for the Fed, prompting markets to price in a more cautious stance and shifting sentiment toward no further cuts.
Powell calls DOJ subpoenas a pretext to force rate cuts
No change jumps to 94%5%
Powell released a video stating the DOJ subpoenas were “pretexts” to pressure the Fed to cut rates. The clarification reassured markets that rate policy would stay unchanged, boosting the “No change” price.
Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change jumps to 98%7%
The DOJ announced it was ending its criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell, removing a major political cloud. The news removed fears of a forced rate‑cut agenda, causing the market to swing dramatically to the “No change” bracket.
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change jumps to 71%14%
The Justice Department announced a criminal probe into Powell’s testimony on Fed building renovations, raising concerns that political attacks could force the Fed to maintain its policy stance and avoid further cuts.
January jobs report shows 130,000 hires, unemployment falls to 4.3%
25 bps decrease rises to 50%3%
Stronger‑than‑expected payrolls suggested a resilient labor market, increasing expectations that the Fed could consider another cut, briefly boosting the 25 bps decrease price.
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change drops to 44%13%
The Justice Department announced a criminal probe into Powell’s testimony on Fed building renovations, raising concerns that political pressure could force the Fed to cut rates. Traders interpreted the move as a threat to Fed independence, boosting confidence in a No‑change outcome.
Wall Street opens 2026 with mixed outlook for Fed cuts
No change rises to 48%4%
The first trading day of 2026 saw modest gains but analysts noted that the market was pricing in a hold at the upcoming January meeting, reducing demand for further cuts and boosting the "No change" price.
President Trump publicly calls for deeper rate cuts
No change rises to 45%1%
Trump reiterated his demand for the Fed to lower rates to as low as 1%, intensifying political pressure and prompting traders to bet the Fed would avoid a cut to maintain credibility.
Fed Chair Powell condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pretexts
Powell issued a video message calling the subpoenas a pretext to pressure the Fed into cutting rates, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would resist political demands and hold rates unchanged.
Federal Reserve officials signal possible rate cut in December meeting
25 bps decrease drops to 44%13%
Fed officials hinted at a potential quarter‑point cut in the Dec 9‑10 meeting, sparking optimism for lower rates and briefly boosting the 25 bps decrease price before it fell back as the cut was confirmed.
Fed minutes reveal split over December rate cut
Released minutes showed two officials had voted to keep rates unchanged and one favored a half‑point cut, highlighting dissent and raising doubts about further easing.
U.S. inflation rises in November, dampening hopes for a rate cut
No change drops to 44%13%
Core CPI increased 2.8% YoY in November, signaling persistent price pressures and leading traders to expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its December meeting.
Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps amid divided committee
No change rises to 48%4%
In December 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points after a closely contested vote, reflecting uncertainty among officials about inflation and labor market conditions. This decision influenced market expectations, initially supporting the possibility of further cuts but also highlighting divisions that made large moves less certain.
Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid divided officials
No change drops to 33%9%
At the December 9-10 meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, the third cut in 2025, but the decision was close with a 9-3 vote, reflecting uncertainty about inflation versus labor market risks. This underscored the Fed's cautious approach and contributed to market expectations of no further immediate cuts.
Fed officials debate a third quarter‑point rate cut at December meeting
No change jumps to 84%13%
Minutes released showed a split vote (9‑3) on a quarter‑point cut, highlighting internal dissent and suggesting the cut could be fragile, which nudged the market toward No change.
Fed minutes reveal narrow 9‑3 vote for a 25 bps cut on Dec 9‑10
No change jumps to 57%13%
The Fed’s December 2025 meeting minutes showed a 9‑3 vote to cut rates by a quarter‑point, highlighting internal splits. Traders interpreted the close vote as a signal that further cuts were uncertain, pushing the market sharply toward the “No change” outcome.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 bps amid divided officials
No change rises to 45%1%
At the December 9-10 meeting, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points for the third time in 2025, but the decision was contentious with a 9-3 vote, reflecting uncertainty about inflation versus labor market risks. This reinforced market expectations for no further immediate cuts, supporting the 'No change' outcome.
Fed cuts rates by a quarter‑point at its December meeting
No change drops to 44%13%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9‑3 to cut the target federal funds rate to a range of 3.5‑3.75%, marking the third cut of the year and reinforcing expectations of continued easing.
Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps amid labor market concerns
No change jumps to 48%7%
At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points for the third time in 2025, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market despite inflation remaining above target. The decision was close, with a 9-3 vote, highlighting internal divisions and uncertainty about future moves. This supported market expectations for no further immediate cuts.
Fed minutes reveal divided views but lean towards steady rates
Minutes from the December 9-10 Fed meeting showed a split among officials, with a narrow vote for a quarter-point cut but significant dissent favoring no change. This highlighted uncertainty and a cautious stance, supporting market expectations for no change in June.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 basis points amid divided committee
25 bps decrease drops to 40%10%
At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to about 3.6%, the third cut that year, but the decision was marked by unusual dissent (9-3 vote), reflecting uncertainty about the economy and inflation. This cautious move influenced market expectations, initially lowering the probability of no change and increasing expectations for rate cuts.
Fed cuts rates by 25 bps at December meeting
25 bps decrease drops to 41%9%
The FOMC voted 9‑3 to lower the target federal funds rate by a quarter point, the first cut of the year, which shifted market odds toward a 25‑bps decrease.
U.S. inflation rises to 2.8% in November, dampening hopes for a rate cut
No change drops to 44%13%
Core CPI increased to 2.8% YoY, signalling persistent price pressures and leading market participants to anticipate the Fed would keep rates unchanged.
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change drops to 44%13%
The Department of Justice announced a criminal probe into Chairman Powell’s testimony on a Fed building renovation, raising concerns that political pressure could force the Fed to keep rates steady to preserve independence.
Fed cuts rates 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% amid cooling inflation
25 bps decrease drops to 44%6%
The Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 25 bps in December 2025, signaling a cautious easing cycle as inflation gradually cooled but employment risks remained. This move initially boosted equity markets and shifted expectations for future cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid internal dissent
No change drops to 35%7%
At the December 9-10, 2025 meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points in a 9-3 vote, reflecting divisions within the committee about inflation and labor market risks. This decision influenced market expectations by signaling cautious easing but with uncertainty about future moves.
Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell
No change surges to 62%18%
The DOJ’s decision to drop its investigation removed a major political risk, leading traders to expect the Fed to maintain its current stance, which lifted the No‑change contract from 44 % to 62 % over the next week.
Fed minutes show split over December rate cut
No change drops to 44%13%
The released minutes from the Dec. 9‑10 FOMC meeting highlighted a 9‑3 vote for a quarter‑point cut and noted dissent from two officials, signaling uncertainty and prompting traders to reassess the likelihood of further cuts.
Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid divided officials
25 bps decrease jumps to 55%5%
At the December 9-10 meeting, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, the third cut in 2025, but the decision was closely contested with dissenters favoring no change or a larger cut. This highlighted uncertainty about the Fed's next moves and influenced market expectations for the June 2026 meeting, initially supporting the possibility of rate cuts.
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