Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.5% implied probability to "No" for President-elect Trump attempting to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by March 31, reflecting Trump's December 4 Wall Street Journal interview where he explicitly stated no plans to remove him and affirmed respect for Fed independence. Powell's term extends to May 2026, and statute permits removal only "for cause"—a stringent legal threshold courts have historically enforced strictly, as seen in Trump's first term amid past criticisms without action. Post-inauguration on January 20, monetary policy clashes or economic shocks could theoretically prompt a reversal, but traders dismiss such scenarios given institutional barriers and Trump's recent signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$37,544 Vol.
$37,544 Vol.
Oui
$37,544 Vol.
$37,544 Vol.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.5% implied probability to "No" for President-elect Trump attempting to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by March 31, reflecting Trump's December 4 Wall Street Journal interview where he explicitly stated no plans to remove him and affirmed respect for Fed independence. Powell's term extends to May 2026, and statute permits removal only "for cause"—a stringent legal threshold courts have historically enforced strictly, as seen in Trump's first term amid past criticisms without action. Post-inauguration on January 20, monetary policy clashes or economic shocks could theoretically prompt a reversal, but traders dismiss such scenarios given institutional barriers and Trump's recent signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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