Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, faces no credible criminal charges, indictments, or investigations from the DOJ or other agencies that could prompt arrest by March 31, driving traders' 99.7% consensus on "No." Absent any official announcements, court filings, or procedural developments in the past 30 days, social media rumors lack substantiation from primary sources like law enforcement statements. Institutional norms protect the Fed Chair's independence, requiring extraordinary evidence for such action amid ongoing monetary policy duties, including recent interest rate decisions. While late-breaking DOJ probes or special counsel revelations could shift odds, no signals indicate movement before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$67,067 Vol.
$67,067 Vol.
Oui
$67,067 Vol.
$67,067 Vol.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, faces no credible criminal charges, indictments, or investigations from the DOJ or other agencies that could prompt arrest by March 31, driving traders' 99.7% consensus on "No." Absent any official announcements, court filings, or procedural developments in the past 30 days, social media rumors lack substantiation from primary sources like law enforcement statements. Institutional norms protect the Fed Chair's independence, requiring extraordinary evidence for such action amid ongoing monetary policy duties, including recent interest rate decisions. While late-breaking DOJ probes or special counsel revelations could shift odds, no signals indicate movement before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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