Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that at least one day in April 2026 saw 20 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz per IMF Portwatch data, amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis that slashed average daily transits to under 10 vessels—a 90% drop from pre-conflict norms of around 100. This chokepoint, vital for 20% of global oil flows, fueled Brent crude's surge to $126 per barrel by month-end, record VLCC charter rates exceeding $400,000 daily, and war-risk insurance premiums climbing to 3% of hull value. Brief traffic rushes during partial reopenings drove the outcome, while persistent blockades and US naval enforcements heightened supply risks; traders eye May ceasefire extensions and IMF updates for normalization signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour__ navires transiteront-ils dans le détroit d'Ormuz n'importe quel jour d'ici la fin avril ?
__ navires transiteront-ils dans le détroit d'Ormuz n'importe quel jour d'ici la fin avril ?
$3,262,068 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
20+
Oui
40+
Non
60+
Non
80+
Non
$3,262,068 Vol.
20+
$451,554 Vol.
Oui
40+
$1,613,715 Vol.
Non
60+
$445,485 Vol.
Non
80+
$751,314 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that at least one day in April 2026 saw 20 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz per IMF Portwatch data, amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis that slashed average daily transits to under 10 vessels—a 90% drop from pre-conflict norms of around 100. This chokepoint, vital for 20% of global oil flows, fueled Brent crude's surge to $126 per barrel by month-end, record VLCC charter rates exceeding $400,000 daily, and war-risk insurance premiums climbing to 3% of hull value. Brief traffic rushes during partial reopenings drove the outcome, while persistent blockades and US naval enforcements heightened supply risks; traders eye May ceasefire extensions and IMF updates for normalization signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
Volume
$3,262,068Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that at least one day in April 2026 saw 20 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz per IMF Portwatch data, amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis that slashed average daily transits to under 10 vessels—a 90% drop from pre-conflict norms of around 100. This chokepoint, vital for 20% of global oil flows, fueled Brent crude's surge to $126 per barrel by month-end, record VLCC charter rates exceeding $400,000 daily, and war-risk insurance premiums climbing to 3% of hull value. Brief traffic rushes during partial reopenings drove the outcome, while persistent blockades and US naval enforcements heightened supply risks; traders eye May ceasefire extensions and IMF updates for normalization signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$3,262,068Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that at least one day in April 2026 saw 20 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz per IMF Portwatch data, amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis that slashed average daily transits to under 10 vessels—a 90% drop from pre-conflict norms of around 100. This chokepoint, vital for 20% of global oil flows, fueled Brent crude's surge to $126 per barrel by month-end, record VLCC charter rates exceeding $400,000 daily, and war-risk insurance premiums climbing to 3% of hull value. Brief traffic rushes during partial reopenings drove the outcome, while persistent blockades and US naval enforcements heightened supply risks; traders eye May ceasefire extensions and IMF updates for normalization signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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