Market icon
Politique·Iraq

Les États-Unis évacuent l'ambassade de Bagdad d'ici... ?

Market icon
Politique·Iraq

Les États-Unis évacuent l'ambassade de Bagdad d'ici... ?

Mar 31

Mar 31

$336,084 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$336,084 Vol.

Polymarket

31 mars

$281,205 Vol.

3%

30 avril

$888 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volume
$336,084
Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

Iraqi militia groups backed by Iran, including Kataib Hezbollah, escalated threats against the US embassy in Baghdad last week, warning of attacks if the US intervenes militarily in the Israel-Iran conflict following Israel's October 26 strikes on Iranian military sites and Tehran's missile barrages. The US has surged security at the embassy and regional bases amid over 200 militia drone and rocket assaults on American forces in Iraq and Syria since the Gaza war began, but no full evacuation order has been issued since partial non-essential staff departures in June. Iraq's government summoned the US envoy and called for de-escalation, while traders monitor potential triggers like renewed militia strikes, US retaliatory actions, or diplomatic breakthroughs ahead of any resolution deadline.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Les États-Unis évacuent l'ambassade de Bagdad d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 3 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 30 avril » à 19%, suivi de « 31 mars » à 3%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 19¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 19% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Les États-Unis évacuent l'ambassade de Bagdad d'ici... ? » a généré $336.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 31, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Les États-Unis évacuent l'ambassade de Bagdad d'ici... ? », parcourez les 3 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Les États-Unis évacuent l'ambassade de Bagdad d'ici... ? » est « 30 avril » à 19%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 19% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 mars » à 3%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Les États-Unis évacuent l'ambassade de Bagdad d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.