Next leader out of power before 2027?
Next leader out of power before 2027?
Orbán - Hungary PM 37%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 22%
Starmer - UK PM 18%
Merz - German Chancellor 5.9%
$43,720 Vol.
$43,720 Vol.
Orbán - Hungary PM
37%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
22%
Starmer - UK PM
18%
Merz - German Chancellor
6%
Lecornu - France PM
4%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
3%
Abbas - President of Palestine
3%
None before 2027
3%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
2%
Trump - USA President
2%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
2%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
2%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
2%
Putin - Russia President
2%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
2%
Takaichi - Japan PM
2%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
2%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
1%
Petro - Colombia President
1%
Macron - France President
1%
Newsom - California Governor
1%
Milei - Argentina President
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
1%
Albanese - Australia PM
1%
Orbán - Hungary PM 37%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 22%
Starmer - UK PM 18%
Merz - German Chancellor 5.9%
$43,720 Vol.
$43,720 Vol.
Orbán - Hungary PM
37%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
22%
Starmer - UK PM
18%
Merz - German Chancellor
6%
Lecornu - France PM
4%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
3%
Abbas - President of Palestine
3%
None before 2027
3%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
2%
Trump - USA President
2%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
2%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
2%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
2%
Putin - Russia President
2%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
2%
Takaichi - Japan PM
2%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
2%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
1%
Petro - Colombia President
1%
Macron - France President
1%
Newsom - California Governor
1%
Milei - Argentina President
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
1%
Albanese - Australia PM
1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Frequently Asked Questions