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Géopolitique·Navire

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

Market icon
Géopolitique·Navire

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

Mar 23

Mar 29

Mar 23

Mar 29

20-24 33%

15-19 21%

30-34 15%

35-39 14%

Polymarket
NEW

20-24 33%

15-19 21%

30-34 15%

35-39 14%

Polymarket
NEW

<10

$1,290 Vol.

3%

10-14

$271 Vol.

8%

15-19

$243 Vol.

20%

20-24

$173 Vol.

28%

25-29

$165 Vol.

13%

30-34

$173 Vol.

15%

35-39

$163 Vol.

16%

40-44

$243 Vol.

13%

45+

$1,100 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 25%, with 45+ (17.5%) and mid-range bins (15-39 ships) tightly clustered around 15-17.5%, reflecting steady but subdued flows amid regional tensions. US airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on March 15-16 escalated fears of Iranian retaliation or proxy disruptions at this critical oil chokepoint, prompting some shippers to delay voyages despite no direct Hormuz blockades. Nowruz holidays across Gulf states through late March further dampened commercial activity, aligning with recent AIS-tracked daily averages of 3-4 vessels. Normalization post-holiday or new de-escalation signals could boost toward 45+, while fresh threats or seizures might drive counts below 15.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$3,493
Date de fin
Mar 29, 2026
Marché ouvert
Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 25%, with 45+ (17.5%) and mid-range bins (15-39 ships) tightly clustered around 15-17.5%, reflecting steady but subdued flows amid regional tensions. US airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on March 15-16 escalated fears of Iranian retaliation or proxy disruptions at this critical oil chokepoint, prompting some shippers to delay voyages despite no direct Hormuz blockades. Nowruz holidays across Gulf states through late March further dampened commercial activity, aligning with recent AIS-tracked daily averages of 3-4 vessels. Normalization post-holiday or new de-escalation signals could boost toward 45+, while fresh threats or seizures might drive counts below 15.

Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 25%, with 45+ (17.5%) and mid-range bins (15-39 ships) tightly clustered around 15-17.5%, reflecting steady but subdued flows amid regional tensions. US airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on March 15-16 escalated fears of Iranian retaliation or proxy disruptions at this critical oil chokepoint, prompting some shippers to delay voyages despite no direct Hormuz blockades. Nowruz holidays across Gulf states through late March further dampened commercial activity, aligning with recent AIS-tracked daily averages of 3-4 vessels. Normalization post-holiday or new de-escalation signals could boost toward 45+, while fresh threats or seizures might drive counts below 15.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29) » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 20-24 » à 28%, suivi de « 15-19 » à 20%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 28¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 28% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29) » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Mar 27, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29) », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29) » est « 20-24 » à 28%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 28% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 15-19 » à 20%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29) » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.