A US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile facilities, prompted Iranian retaliation including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Gulf allies. After over five weeks of escalation, a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending major hostilities and enabling Islamabad talks on Iran's nuclear program and naval blockade lift, though Israel maintains operations in Lebanon outside its scope. President Trump warned of resumed airstrikes absent a deal by the April 22 expiration, while congressional bids to restrict further military action failed. Iran retains drone and missile stockpiles despite US claims of 90% degradation in projection power, fueling trader uncertainty over de-escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'action militaire contre l'Iran se termine d'ici... ?
L'action militaire contre l'Iran se termine d'ici... ?
$31,804,712 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
1er avril
Non
2 avril
Non
3 avril
Non
4 avril
Non
5 avril
Non
6 avril
Non
7 avril
Non
8 avril
Non
9 avril
Oui
10 avril
Oui
11 avril
Oui
12 avril
Oui
13 avril
Oui
14 avril
Oui
15 avril
Oui
16 avril
Oui
17 avril
Oui
18 avril
Oui
19 avril
Oui
20 avril
Oui
21 avril
Oui
22 avril
Oui
23 avril
Oui
24 avril
Oui
25 avril
Oui
26 avril
Oui
27 avril
Oui
28 avril
Oui
29 avril
Oui
30 avril
Oui
$31,804,712 Vol.
1er avril
$10,254 Vol.
Non
2 avril
$11,401 Vol.
Non
3 avril
$8,242 Vol.
Non
4 avril
$5,242 Vol.
Non
5 avril
$3,932 Vol.
Non
6 avril
$13,964 Vol.
Non
7 avril
$3,627 Vol.
Non
8 avril
$13,689 Vol.
Non
9 avril
$237,471 Vol.
Oui
10 avril
$16,446 Vol.
Oui
11 avril
$32,861 Vol.
Oui
12 avril
$81,597 Vol.
Oui
13 avril
$93,184 Vol.
Oui
14 avril
$127,016 Vol.
Oui
15 avril
$101,486 Vol.
Oui
16 avril
$116,607 Vol.
Oui
17 avril
$28,778,655 Vol.
Oui
18 avril
$134,016 Vol.
Oui
19 avril
$64,443 Vol.
Oui
20 avril
$78,125 Vol.
Oui
21 avril
$80,720 Vol.
Oui
22 avril
$145,549 Vol.
Oui
23 avril
$99,012 Vol.
Oui
24 avril
$85,329 Vol.
Oui
25 avril
$104,695 Vol.
Oui
26 avril
$97,519 Vol.
Oui
27 avril
$97,649 Vol.
Oui
28 avril
$139,058 Vol.
Oui
29 avril
$311,523 Vol.
Oui
30 avril
$711,400 Vol.
Oui
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile facilities, prompted Iranian retaliation including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Gulf allies. After over five weeks of escalation, a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending major hostilities and enabling Islamabad talks on Iran's nuclear program and naval blockade lift, though Israel maintains operations in Lebanon outside its scope. President Trump warned of resumed airstrikes absent a deal by the April 22 expiration, while congressional bids to restrict further military action failed. Iran retains drone and missile stockpiles despite US claims of 90% degradation in projection power, fueling trader uncertainty over de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$31,804,712Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile facilities, prompted Iranian retaliation including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Gulf allies. After over five weeks of escalation, a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending major hostilities and enabling Islamabad talks on Iran's nuclear program and naval blockade lift, though Israel maintains operations in Lebanon outside its scope. President Trump warned of resumed airstrikes absent a deal by the April 22 expiration, while congressional bids to restrict further military action failed. Iran retains drone and missile stockpiles despite US claims of 90% degradation in projection power, fueling trader uncertainty over de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,804,712Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
A US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile facilities, prompted Iranian retaliation including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Gulf allies. After over five weeks of escalation, a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending major hostilities and enabling Islamabad talks on Iran's nuclear program and naval blockade lift, though Israel maintains operations in Lebanon outside its scope. President Trump warned of resumed airstrikes absent a deal by the April 22 expiration, while congressional bids to restrict further military action failed. Iran retains drone and missile stockpiles despite US claims of 90% degradation in projection power, fueling trader uncertainty over de-escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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