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Monde·Moyen-Orient

Leader iranien fin 2026 ?

Market icon
Monde·Moyen-Orient

Leader iranien fin 2026 ?

Mojtaba Khamenei 49.1%

Reza Pahlavi 13%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 12.2%

Hassan Khomeini 10.7%

Polymarket

$4,669,741 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 49.1%

Reza Pahlavi 13%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 12.2%

Hassan Khomeini 10.7%

Polymarket

$4,669,741 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$898,517 Vol.

49%

Reza Pahlavi

$115,405 Vol.

13%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$26,602 Vol.

12%

Hassan Khomeini

$576,663 Vol.

11%

Pas de chef d'État

$206,247 Vol.

3%

Sadegh Larijani

$167,818 Vol.

3%

Hassan Rouhani

$177,046 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$431,729 Vol.

2%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$212,177 Vol.

2%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$43,652 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$86,394 Vol.

1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$69,970 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$186,145 Vol.

1%

Maryam Radjavi

$235,833 Vol.

1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$265,430 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$140,223 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$42,598 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$204,204 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$49,115 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$55,979 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$35,707 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$14,282 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$43,115 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$23,540 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$17,985 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$28,423 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$23,106 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$14,946 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$30,563 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$9,467 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 48.9% implied probability as Supreme Leader by end of 2026, driven by his behind-the-scenes influence in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and clerical networks as a continuity pick amid father Ali Khamenei's advancing age of 85 and recurring health rumors. Late October Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites prompted Khamenei's televised vow of severe retaliation on November 1, affirming his active role while heightening succession speculation without confirming incapacity. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi holds 13.5% on aspirations for monarchy restoration amid persistent economic pressures and protest echoes from the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf's 8.9% reflects his parliamentary clout, though Assembly of Experts selection remains opaque; further regional escalations or health disclosures could pivot odds.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$4,669,741
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

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This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 48.9% implied probability as Supreme Leader by end of 2026, driven by his behind-the-scenes influence in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and clerical networks as a continuity pick amid father Ali Khamenei's advancing age of 85 and recurring health rumors. Late October Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites prompted Khamenei's televised vow of severe retaliation on November 1, affirming his active role while heightening succession speculation without confirming incapacity. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi holds 13.5% on aspirations for monarchy restoration amid persistent economic pressures and protest echoes from the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf's 8.9% reflects his parliamentary clout, though Assembly of Experts selection remains opaque; further regional escalations or health disclosures could pivot odds.

Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 48.9% implied probability as Supreme Leader by end of 2026, driven by his behind-the-scenes influence in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and clerical networks as a continuity pick amid father Ali Khamenei's advancing age of 85 and recurring health rumors. Late October Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites prompted Khamenei's televised vow of severe retaliation on November 1, affirming his active role while heightening succession speculation without confirming incapacity. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi holds 13.5% on aspirations for monarchy restoration amid persistent economic pressures and protest echoes from the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf's 8.9% reflects his parliamentary clout, though Assembly of Experts selection remains opaque; further regional escalations or health disclosures could pivot odds.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 32 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Mojtaba Khamenei » à 49%, suivi de « Reza Pahlavi » à 13%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 49¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 49% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » a généré $4.7 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 1, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? », parcourez les 32 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » est « Mojtaba Khamenei » à 49%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 49% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Reza Pahlavi » à 13%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.