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Monde·Moyen-Orient

Leader iranien fin 2026 ?

icon for Leader iranien fin 2026 ?
Monde·Moyen-Orient

Leader iranien fin 2026 ?

Mojtaba Khamenei 70.8%

Reza Pahlavi 6%

Abbas Araghchi 3.8%

Pas de chef d'État 3.5%

Polymarket

$14,390,790 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 70.8%

Reza Pahlavi 6%

Abbas Araghchi 3.8%

Pas de chef d'État 3.5%

Polymarket

$14,390,790 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,576,012 Vol.

71%

Reza Pahlavi

$259,109 Vol.

6%

Abbas Araghchi

$490,999 Vol.

4%

Pas de chef d'État

$775,764 Vol.

3%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$454,011 Vol.

2%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,097,471 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$572,440 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$1,916,726 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$625,831 Vol.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$428,962 Vol.

1%

Maryam Radjavi

$599,323 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$669,091 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$338,079 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$427,469 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$232,185 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$313,642 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$125,945 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$139,582 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$144,135 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$69,908 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$140,355 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$118,848 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$452,529 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$179,978 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$271,214 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$154,235 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$57,018 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$306,305 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$128,418 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$88,397 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The Assembly of Experts' early March selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, following Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes, has driven the strong trader consensus around his continuity through the end of 2026. Mojtaba's established ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and clerical networks, combined with the constitutional succession framework, have limited viable near-term alternatives despite questions over his recovery from injuries sustained in the attack. Other listed contenders, including Reza Pahlavi and various clerics, register minimal implied probabilities because they lack comparable institutional backing or current roles in the power structure. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments could still introduce volatility before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$14,390,790
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The Assembly of Experts' early March selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, following Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes, has driven the strong trader consensus around his continuity through the end of 2026. Mojtaba's established ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and clerical networks, combined with the constitutional succession framework, have limited viable near-term alternatives despite questions over his recovery from injuries sustained in the attack. Other listed contenders, including Reza Pahlavi and various clerics, register minimal implied probabilities because they lack comparable institutional backing or current roles in the power structure. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments could still introduce volatility before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$14,390,790
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Questions fréquentes

« Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 32 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Mojtaba Khamenei » à 71%, suivi de « Reza Pahlavi » à 6%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 71¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 71% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » a généré $14.4 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 1, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? », parcourez les 32 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » est « Mojtaba Khamenei » à 71%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 71% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Reza Pahlavi » à 6%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.