Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, reported by the IAEA at over 6,400 kg in August with 164 kg at 60% purity nearing weapons-grade, continues to grow amid stalled diplomacy. The IAEA board's November 21 resolution censuring Tehran for non-cooperation prompted Iran to announce plans for a new underground enrichment facility and advanced centrifuges, hardening its stance against surrender demands. Indirect US-Iran talks via Oman remain dormant since 2022, with Tehran insisting on full sanctions relief under a revived JCPOA framework before any stockpile concessions. Post-US election, potential Trump administration pressure via "maximum pressure" sanctions revival adds uncertainty, while upcoming IAEA verification reports and possible UN Security Council referral loom as catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
NEW
$18,707 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
15%
June 30
26%
December 31
27%
$18,707 Vol.
April 30
$283 Vol.
15%
June 30
$11 Vol.
26%
December 31
$18,412 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, reported by the IAEA at over 6,400 kg in August with 164 kg at 60% purity nearing weapons-grade, continues to grow amid stalled diplomacy. The IAEA board's November 21 resolution censuring Tehran for non-cooperation prompted Iran to announce plans for a new underground enrichment facility and advanced centrifuges, hardening its stance against surrender demands. Indirect US-Iran talks via Oman remain dormant since 2022, with Tehran insisting on full sanctions relief under a revived JCPOA framework before any stockpile concessions. Post-US election, potential Trump administration pressure via "maximum pressure" sanctions revival adds uncertainty, while upcoming IAEA verification reports and possible UN Security Council referral loom as catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$18,707Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, reported by the IAEA at over 6,400 kg in August with 164 kg at 60% purity nearing weapons-grade, continues to grow amid stalled diplomacy. The IAEA board's November 21 resolution censuring Tehran for non-cooperation prompted Iran to announce plans for a new underground enrichment facility and advanced centrifuges, hardening its stance against surrender demands. Indirect US-Iran talks via Oman remain dormant since 2022, with Tehran insisting on full sanctions relief under a revived JCPOA framework before any stockpile concessions. Post-US election, potential Trump administration pressure via "maximum pressure" sanctions revival adds uncertainty, while upcoming IAEA verification reports and possible UN Security Council referral loom as catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$18,707Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, reported by the IAEA at over 6,400 kg in August with 164 kg at 60% purity nearing weapons-grade, continues to grow amid stalled diplomacy. The IAEA board's November 21 resolution censuring Tehran for non-cooperation prompted Iran to announce plans for a new underground enrichment facility and advanced centrifuges, hardening its stance against surrender demands. Indirect US-Iran talks via Oman remain dormant since 2022, with Tehran insisting on full sanctions relief under a revived JCPOA framework before any stockpile concessions. Post-US election, potential Trump administration pressure via "maximum pressure" sanctions revival adds uncertainty, while upcoming IAEA verification reports and possible UN Security Council referral loom as catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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