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Géopolitique·Trump

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Trump

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$3,316 Vol.

Polymarket

31 mars

$1,359 Vol.

16%

30 avril

$1,956 Vol.

55%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government.

A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,316
Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026
Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump administration officials, including Vice President-elect JD Vance, have consistently advocated a maximum-pressure approach toward Iran, emphasizing no direct negotiations without concessions on its nuclear program and regional proxies, driving trader consensus toward low probabilities on this market. Recent statements from President-elect Trump reiterate demands for Iranian capitulation or military consequences, with no official announcements of Vance engaging negotiators. Vance's public positions align closely, focusing on deterrence over diplomacy. Upcoming events like the January 20 inauguration and early foreign policy briefings could influence dynamics, but historical Trump-era patterns suggest indirect channels at best, tempering expectations for direct talks by the deadline.

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Questions fréquentes

« Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 30 avril » à 55%, suivi de « 31 mars » à 17%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 55¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 55% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Mar 24, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...? » est « 30 avril » à 55%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 55% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 mars » à 17%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.