Trader consensus implies an 83.5% probability that the Iranian regime will endure before 2027, anchored by its decisive crackdown quashing the 2025–2026 protests—which erupted over economic collapse and war tensions—in just weeks, resulting in thousands killed but no sustained uprising. The regime weathered the early 2026 Iran war, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on military targets and leadership figures like Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who survived injured, enabling a contested succession to his son Mojtaba amid internal fractures. A ceasefire and reported progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations have solidified post-war stability, with no major escalations or domestic revolts in the past month despite ongoing sanctions and economic strain.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$17,332,587 Vol.
$17,332,587 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$17,332,587 Vol.
$17,332,587 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus implies an 83.5% probability that the Iranian regime will endure before 2027, anchored by its decisive crackdown quashing the 2025–2026 protests—which erupted over economic collapse and war tensions—in just weeks, resulting in thousands killed but no sustained uprising. The regime weathered the early 2026 Iran war, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on military targets and leadership figures like Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who survived injured, enabling a contested succession to his son Mojtaba amid internal fractures. A ceasefire and reported progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations have solidified post-war stability, with no major escalations or domestic revolts in the past month despite ongoing sanctions and economic strain.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$17,332,587Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus implies an 83.5% probability that the Iranian regime will endure before 2027, anchored by its decisive crackdown quashing the 2025–2026 protests—which erupted over economic collapse and war tensions—in just weeks, resulting in thousands killed but no sustained uprising. The regime weathered the early 2026 Iran war, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on military targets and leadership figures like Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who survived injured, enabling a contested succession to his son Mojtaba amid internal fractures. A ceasefire and reported progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations have solidified post-war stability, with no major escalations or domestic revolts in the past month despite ongoing sanctions and economic strain.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,334,587Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 83.5% probability that the Iranian regime will endure before 2027, anchored by its decisive crackdown quashing the 2025–2026 protests—which erupted over economic collapse and war tensions—in just weeks, resulting in thousands killed but no sustained uprising. The regime weathered the early 2026 Iran war, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on military targets and leadership figures like Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who survived injured, enabling a contested succession to his son Mojtaba amid internal fractures. A ceasefire and reported progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations have solidified post-war stability, with no major escalations or domestic revolts in the past month despite ongoing sanctions and economic strain.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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