Trader consensus prices a 66.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure past 2026, reflecting its institutional resilience amid severe pressures. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28 in US-Israeli airstrikes prompted a swift Assembly of Experts election, installing a successor by early March and projecting continuity despite questions over the new leader's health. Security forces crushed January-February protests fueled by economic crisis, preventing widespread uprisings, while the IRGC maintains loyalty. Ongoing escalations, including Israel's vowed intensification of strikes as of March 27 and potential ceasefire talks, have degraded military assets but not triggered regime collapse or defections, aligning with US intelligence assessments of stability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$11,855,227 Vol.
$11,855,227 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$11,855,227 Vol.
$11,855,227 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 66.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure past 2026, reflecting its institutional resilience amid severe pressures. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28 in US-Israeli airstrikes prompted a swift Assembly of Experts election, installing a successor by early March and projecting continuity despite questions over the new leader's health. Security forces crushed January-February protests fueled by economic crisis, preventing widespread uprisings, while the IRGC maintains loyalty. Ongoing escalations, including Israel's vowed intensification of strikes as of March 27 and potential ceasefire talks, have degraded military assets but not triggered regime collapse or defections, aligning with US intelligence assessments of stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$11,855,227Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 66.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure past 2026, reflecting its institutional resilience amid severe pressures. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28 in US-Israeli airstrikes prompted a swift Assembly of Experts election, installing a successor by early March and projecting continuity despite questions over the new leader's health. Security forces crushed January-February protests fueled by economic crisis, preventing widespread uprisings, while the IRGC maintains loyalty. Ongoing escalations, including Israel's vowed intensification of strikes as of March 27 and potential ceasefire talks, have degraded military assets but not triggered regime collapse or defections, aligning with US intelligence assessments of stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,855,227Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 66.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure past 2026, reflecting its institutional resilience amid severe pressures. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28 in US-Israeli airstrikes prompted a swift Assembly of Experts election, installing a successor by early March and projecting continuity despite questions over the new leader's health. Security forces crushed January-February protests fueled by economic crisis, preventing widespread uprisings, while the IRGC maintains loyalty. Ongoing escalations, including Israel's vowed intensification of strikes as of March 27 and potential ceasefire talks, have degraded military assets but not triggered regime collapse or defections, aligning with US intelligence assessments of stability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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