Current trader consensus prices low odds for any country conducting military action against Iran by March 31, amid heightened Middle East tensions from Israel's intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and strikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria, without direct hits on Iranian territory since April 2024 exchanges. U.S. strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen remain calibrated to avoid broader escalation, while Iran's proxy network sustains pressure on Israel and Red Sea shipping. Mutual deterrence, nuclear considerations, and indirect U.S.-Iran diplomacy via Oman underpin restraint. Key upcoming catalysts include Gaza cease-fire talks and UN Security Council sessions on Lebanon, which could either de-escalate or spur miscalculations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$9,478,449 Vol.
Arabie saoudite
13%
Émirats arabes unis
12%
Qatar
6%
Turquie
3%
Koweït
3%
Bahreïn
2%
Royaume-Uni
2%
N'importe quel pays de l'U.E.
2%
Jordanie
1%
France
1%
Allemagne
1%
Oman
1%
Canada
<1%
$9,478,449 Vol.
Arabie saoudite
13%
Émirats arabes unis
12%
Qatar
6%
Turquie
3%
Koweït
3%
Bahreïn
2%
Royaume-Uni
2%
N'importe quel pays de l'U.E.
2%
Jordanie
1%
France
1%
Allemagne
1%
Oman
1%
Canada
<1%
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Current trader consensus prices low odds for any country conducting military action against Iran by March 31, amid heightened Middle East tensions from Israel's intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and strikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria, without direct hits on Iranian territory since April 2024 exchanges. U.S. strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen remain calibrated to avoid broader escalation, while Iran's proxy network sustains pressure on Israel and Red Sea shipping. Mutual deterrence, nuclear considerations, and indirect U.S.-Iran diplomacy via Oman underpin restraint. Key upcoming catalysts include Gaza cease-fire talks and UN Security Council sessions on Lebanon, which could either de-escalate or spur miscalculations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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