Market icon

Quels pays frapperont l'Iran d'ici le 31 mars ?

Market icon

Quels pays frapperont l'Iran d'ici le 31 mars ?

$1,324,175 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,324,175 Vol.

Polymarket

Arabie saoudite

$263,878 Vol.

57%

Émirats arabes unis

$152,422 Vol.

38%

Qatar

$82,082 Vol.

36%

Any E.U. Country

$12,780 Vol.

22%

Bahreïn

$26,133 Vol.

21%

Royaume-Uni

$235,359 Vol.

14%

France

$145,300 Vol.

12%

Jordanie

$62,033 Vol.

12%

Koweït

$1,726 Vol.

12%

Allemagne

$274,912 Vol.

7%

Turquie

$40,083 Vol.

6%

Oman

$2,246 Vol.

6%

Canada

$25,222 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,324,175
Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026
Créé le
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quels pays frapperont l'Iran d'ici le 31 mars ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Arabie saoudite" at 57%, followed by "Émirats arabes unis" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quels pays frapperont l'Iran d'ici le 31 mars ?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quels pays frapperont l'Iran d'ici le 31 mars ?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quels pays frapperont l'Iran d'ici le 31 mars ?" is "Arabie saoudite" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Émirats arabes unis" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quels pays frapperont l'Iran d'ici le 31 mars ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.