Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by Iran's effective blockade amid the ongoing US-Iran war now in its fifth week. Commercial transits have plummeted over 90% from pre-conflict levels of ~20 million barrels per day of oil and products—20% of global supply—with recent drone and missile attacks on vessels, GPS jamming, and IRGC-imposed tolls yielding only sporadic passages. Escalating threats from President Trump for military escorts or strikes, countered by Tehran, sustain geopolitical risk premiums, while Houthi actions compound Red Sea disruptions. Normalization hinges on a truce or forceful reopening, both low-likelihood amid fresh hostilities as of March 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$1,531,672 Vol.
$1,531,672 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Oui
$1,531,672 Vol.
$1,531,672 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by Iran's effective blockade amid the ongoing US-Iran war now in its fifth week. Commercial transits have plummeted over 90% from pre-conflict levels of ~20 million barrels per day of oil and products—20% of global supply—with recent drone and missile attacks on vessels, GPS jamming, and IRGC-imposed tolls yielding only sporadic passages. Escalating threats from President Trump for military escorts or strikes, countered by Tehran, sustain geopolitical risk premiums, while Houthi actions compound Red Sea disruptions. Normalization hinges on a truce or forceful reopening, both low-likelihood amid fresh hostilities as of March 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,531,672Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by Iran's effective blockade amid the ongoing US-Iran war now in its fifth week. Commercial transits have plummeted over 90% from pre-conflict levels of ~20 million barrels per day of oil and products—20% of global supply—with recent drone and missile attacks on vessels, GPS jamming, and IRGC-imposed tolls yielding only sporadic passages. Escalating threats from President Trump for military escorts or strikes, countered by Tehran, sustain geopolitical risk premiums, while Houthi actions compound Red Sea disruptions. Normalization hinges on a truce or forceful reopening, both low-likelihood amid fresh hostilities as of March 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$1,531,672Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by Iran's effective blockade amid the ongoing US-Iran war now in its fifth week. Commercial transits have plummeted over 90% from pre-conflict levels of ~20 million barrels per day of oil and products—20% of global supply—with recent drone and missile attacks on vessels, GPS jamming, and IRGC-imposed tolls yielding only sporadic passages. Escalating threats from President Trump for military escorts or strikes, countered by Tehran, sustain geopolitical risk premiums, while Houthi actions compound Red Sea disruptions. Normalization hinges on a truce or forceful reopening, both low-likelihood amid fresh hostilities as of March 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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