Amid the US-Iran war that began February 28, 2026, Iran's IRGC has enforced selective Strait of Hormuz transits, barring warships from US allies while permitting merchant vessels from non-hostile states like India—which saw two petroleum carriers cross today under navy standby—and China-linked ships via a tolled northern corridor. US naval assets, including USS Tripoli and Boxer groups totaling 10,000 personnel, have approached but retreated amid IRGC attacks from afar, with transits trickling at 142 total since March 1. President Trump's demands for warships from Britain, France, Japan, South Korea, and others have drawn European rejections, heightening uncertainty for coalition efforts by April 30 amid potential escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
États-Unis
54%
United Kingdom
20%
France
8%
Pakistan
7%
Greece
5%
Japan
4%
India
4%
Italy
3%
Canada
3%
Netherlands
2%
Germany
2%
$4,448 Vol.
États-Unis
$238 Vol.
54%
United Kingdom
$1,286 Vol.
20%
France
$930 Vol.
8%
Pakistan
$362 Vol.
7%
Greece
$125 Vol.
5%
Japan
$142 Vol.
4%
India
$360 Vol.
4%
Italy
$223 Vol.
3%
Canada
$180 Vol.
3%
Netherlands
$178 Vol.
2%
Germany
$423 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid the US-Iran war that began February 28, 2026, Iran's IRGC has enforced selective Strait of Hormuz transits, barring warships from US allies while permitting merchant vessels from non-hostile states like India—which saw two petroleum carriers cross today under navy standby—and China-linked ships via a tolled northern corridor. US naval assets, including USS Tripoli and Boxer groups totaling 10,000 personnel, have approached but retreated amid IRGC attacks from afar, with transits trickling at 142 total since March 1. President Trump's demands for warships from Britain, France, Japan, South Korea, and others have drawn European rejections, heightening uncertainty for coalition efforts by April 30 amid potential escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
Volume
$4,448Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid the US-Iran war that began February 28, 2026, Iran's IRGC has enforced selective Strait of Hormuz transits, barring warships from US allies while permitting merchant vessels from non-hostile states like India—which saw two petroleum carriers cross today under navy standby—and China-linked ships via a tolled northern corridor. US naval assets, including USS Tripoli and Boxer groups totaling 10,000 personnel, have approached but retreated amid IRGC attacks from afar, with transits trickling at 142 total since March 1. President Trump's demands for warships from Britain, France, Japan, South Korea, and others have drawn European rejections, heightening uncertainty for coalition efforts by April 30 amid potential escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$4,448Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Iran war that began February 28, 2026, Iran's IRGC has enforced selective Strait of Hormuz transits, barring warships from US allies while permitting merchant vessels from non-hostile states like India—which saw two petroleum carriers cross today under navy standby—and China-linked ships via a tolled northern corridor. US naval assets, including USS Tripoli and Boxer groups totaling 10,000 personnel, have approached but retreated amid IRGC attacks from afar, with transits trickling at 142 total since March 1. President Trump's demands for warships from Britain, France, Japan, South Korea, and others have drawn European rejections, heightening uncertainty for coalition efforts by April 30 amid potential escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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