Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 amid stalled U.S.-backed peace talks and Russia's ongoing spring offensive launched around March 24, with intensified ground attacks across the front line as reported by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-Ukraine meetings in Florida on March 22 and earlier Geneva sessions in February, have yielded no breakthroughs, hampered by Russia's demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions and distractions from Middle East escalations. Continued strikes—such as Ukrainian drones targeting Russian oil facilities—and minimal progress in negotiations over the past month underscore entrenched positions, leaving little room for agreement in the final days. A sudden diplomatic concession or external mediation could theoretically shift dynamics, though structural barriers like unresolved security guarantees make this improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourRussie x Ukraine cessez-le-feu d'ici le 31 mars 2026 ?
Russie x Ukraine cessez-le-feu d'ici le 31 mars 2026 ?
Oui
$28,767,580 Vol.
$28,767,580 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Oui
$28,767,580 Vol.
$28,767,580 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 amid stalled U.S.-backed peace talks and Russia's ongoing spring offensive launched around March 24, with intensified ground attacks across the front line as reported by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-Ukraine meetings in Florida on March 22 and earlier Geneva sessions in February, have yielded no breakthroughs, hampered by Russia's demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions and distractions from Middle East escalations. Continued strikes—such as Ukrainian drones targeting Russian oil facilities—and minimal progress in negotiations over the past month underscore entrenched positions, leaving little room for agreement in the final days. A sudden diplomatic concession or external mediation could theoretically shift dynamics, though structural barriers like unresolved security guarantees make this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$28,767,580Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 amid stalled U.S.-backed peace talks and Russia's ongoing spring offensive launched around March 24, with intensified ground attacks across the front line as reported by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-Ukraine meetings in Florida on March 22 and earlier Geneva sessions in February, have yielded no breakthroughs, hampered by Russia's demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions and distractions from Middle East escalations. Continued strikes—such as Ukrainian drones targeting Russian oil facilities—and minimal progress in negotiations over the past month underscore entrenched positions, leaving little room for agreement in the final days. A sudden diplomatic concession or external mediation could theoretically shift dynamics, though structural barriers like unresolved security guarantees make this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$28,767,580Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 amid stalled U.S.-backed peace talks and Russia's ongoing spring offensive launched around March 24, with intensified ground attacks across the front line as reported by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-Ukraine meetings in Florida on March 22 and earlier Geneva sessions in February, have yielded no breakthroughs, hampered by Russia's demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions and distractions from Middle East escalations. Continued strikes—such as Ukrainian drones targeting Russian oil facilities—and minimal progress in negotiations over the past month underscore entrenched positions, leaving little room for agreement in the final days. A sudden diplomatic concession or external mediation could theoretically shift dynamics, though structural barriers like unresolved security guarantees make this improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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