Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 31.5%, reflecting entrenched military escalations and stalled diplomatic efforts as the dominant drivers. Russian forces conducted nearly 1,000 drone and missile strikes across Ukraine on March 23-24, alongside continued offensives in Donetsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia regions per recent ISW assessments, signaling no de-escalation. US-brokered peace talks, including Geneva meetings in February, remain on a "situational pause" since mid-March amid Middle East distractions, with Moscow prioritizing occupied territory development through 2026 investments. Zelenskyy insists on no territorial concessions, while Putin demands Ukrainian capitulation, underscoring irreconcilable positions amid the spring 2026 campaign.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$12,270,037 Vol.
$12,270,037 Vol.
Oui
$12,270,037 Vol.
$12,270,037 Vol.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 31.5%, reflecting entrenched military escalations and stalled diplomatic efforts as the dominant drivers. Russian forces conducted nearly 1,000 drone and missile strikes across Ukraine on March 23-24, alongside continued offensives in Donetsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia regions per recent ISW assessments, signaling no de-escalation. US-brokered peace talks, including Geneva meetings in February, remain on a "situational pause" since mid-March amid Middle East distractions, with Moscow prioritizing occupied territory development through 2026 investments. Zelenskyy insists on no territorial concessions, while Putin demands Ukrainian capitulation, underscoring irreconcilable positions amid the spring 2026 campaign.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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