Trader consensus implies a 68.5% probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks paused amid the Iran war escalation and Russia's ongoing spring offensive launched last week. Recent developments include mutual strikes—Russian advances near Pokrovsk in Donetsk and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airfields—signaling no de-escalation, while Moscow demands Ukrainian cession of Donbas territory, rejected by Kyiv insisting on full withdrawal and security guarantees. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov cited a "situational pause" on March 26 due to external priorities, with no new talks scheduled despite hopes for U.S. resumption. Divergent positions and active frontline fighting echo historical negotiation failures like Minsk accords, prolonging stalemate absent major diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$12,276,080 Vol.
$12,276,080 Vol.
Oui
$12,276,080 Vol.
$12,276,080 Vol.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus implies a 68.5% probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks paused amid the Iran war escalation and Russia's ongoing spring offensive launched last week. Recent developments include mutual strikes—Russian advances near Pokrovsk in Donetsk and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airfields—signaling no de-escalation, while Moscow demands Ukrainian cession of Donbas territory, rejected by Kyiv insisting on full withdrawal and security guarantees. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov cited a "situational pause" on March 26 due to external priorities, with no new talks scheduled despite hopes for U.S. resumption. Divergent positions and active frontline fighting echo historical negotiation failures like Minsk accords, prolonging stalemate absent major diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes