Putin’s firm grip on Russia’s centralized political system, backed by loyal security services, constitutional term resets through 2036, and the absence of organized elite opposition, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against his removal by June 30. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes have prompted public acknowledgment of economic strain, yet Putin has projected continuity while rejecting peace overtures and advancing battlefield positions. No credible reports or signals of resignation, incapacitation, or sudden power shifts have emerged in the past month. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome remain limited to unforeseen health events or rapid internal fractures, both of which lack supporting evidence at present and would require extraordinary developments to unfold within the narrow window.