Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 99.9% for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being exiled to Russia by March 31, reflecting his firm grip on power after the disputed July 2024 election and January 10 inauguration. Loyal military and security forces have quashed opposition protests, arrested key dissidents like opposition leader María Corina Machado's allies, and prevented any internal collapse despite ongoing US sanctions and non-recognition by Western governments. Russia remains a diplomatic backer but shows no active role in exile scenarios. While improbable, a sudden high-level military defection, uncontrollable mass unrest, or unexpected diplomatic intervention could still shift dynamics before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$161,965 Vol.
$161,965 Vol.
Oui
$161,965 Vol.
$161,965 Vol.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 11, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 99.9% for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being exiled to Russia by March 31, reflecting his firm grip on power after the disputed July 2024 election and January 10 inauguration. Loyal military and security forces have quashed opposition protests, arrested key dissidents like opposition leader María Corina Machado's allies, and prevented any internal collapse despite ongoing US sanctions and non-recognition by Western governments. Russia remains a diplomatic backer but shows no active role in exile scenarios. While improbable, a sudden high-level military defection, uncontrollable mass unrest, or unexpected diplomatic intervention could still shift dynamics before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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