Trader consensus heavily favors no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 (89.1% implied probability), driven by the absence of any official announcements for an in-person summit since their last face-to-face in Alaska in August 2025, amid stalled Ukraine peace talks and escalating Middle East tensions. A March 9 phone call between the leaders addressed Ukraine and Iran developments—including recent U.S. and Israeli strikes—but yielded no summit plans, with the Kremlin confirming discussions without scheduling commitments. Neutral venues like Gulf countries (1.9%) and Turkey (1.8%) attract minor odds due to their mediation roles in regional diplomacy, such as Putin's April 3 call with Erdogan on Middle East ceasefires, though no bilateral U.S.-Russia summit logistics have emerged to shift probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAucune rencontre d'ici le 30 juin 89.1%
pays du Golfe 1.9%
Turquie 1.8%
Russie 1.5%
$4,631,699 Vol.
$4,631,699 Vol.

Aucune rencontre d'ici le 30 juin
89%

pays du Golfe
2%

Turquie
2%

Russie
2%

Chine
1%

Autre pays de l'UE
1%

États-Unis
1%

Autre
1%

Biélorussie
1%

Ukraine
<1%

Suisse
<1%

Finlande
<1%

Corée du Sud
<1%

Australie
<1%

Japon
<1%
Aucune rencontre d'ici le 30 juin 89.1%
pays du Golfe 1.9%
Turquie 1.8%
Russie 1.5%
$4,631,699 Vol.
$4,631,699 Vol.

Aucune rencontre d'ici le 30 juin
89%

pays du Golfe
2%

Turquie
2%

Russie
2%

Chine
1%

Autre pays de l'UE
1%

États-Unis
1%

Autre
1%

Biélorussie
1%

Ukraine
<1%

Suisse
<1%

Finlande
<1%

Corée du Sud
<1%

Australie
<1%

Japon
<1%
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Sep 30, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 (89.1% implied probability), driven by the absence of any official announcements for an in-person summit since their last face-to-face in Alaska in August 2025, amid stalled Ukraine peace talks and escalating Middle East tensions. A March 9 phone call between the leaders addressed Ukraine and Iran developments—including recent U.S. and Israeli strikes—but yielded no summit plans, with the Kremlin confirming discussions without scheduling commitments. Neutral venues like Gulf countries (1.9%) and Turkey (1.8%) attract minor odds due to their mediation roles in regional diplomacy, such as Putin's April 3 call with Erdogan on Middle East ceasefires, though no bilateral U.S.-Russia summit logistics have emerged to shift probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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