Escalating US-Iran hostilities dominate trader sentiment in the "Nothing Ever Happens: April" market, pricing "Something" at 99.8% implied probability as of April 5, reflecting near-certainty that at least one trigger—such as US forces entering Iran—will occur by April 30. Iranian forces downed a US F-15E and A-10 on April 3-4, the conflict's first aircraft losses since late February airstrikes began, prompting President Trump's threats of imminent strikes on Iranian power plants. WTI crude oil surged past $112 per barrel on supply disruption fears, while the April 28-29 FOMC meeting looms amid inflation pressures from the war. Cuba faces rhetorical escalation but no action yet, and no Epstein-related arrests have materialized. De-escalation via diplomacy remains a slim scenario to avert triggers.