Trader consensus prices "No" at 66.5% for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting heightened risks of triggers like U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime collapse amid escalating military tensions. Over the past week, U.S. airstrikes intensified with over 200 dynamic operations reported on March 31, including massive fireballs over Isfahan, as President Trump defended actions and threatened ground invasion while claiming regime change despite U.S. intelligence assessments of intact leadership and no imminent collapse. Additional troop deployments signal preparation for escalation, bolstering odds against year-end avoidance of all black swan events, including Republican Senate supermajority post-2026 midterms and Russia-NATO friction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourRien ne se passe jamais : 2026
Rien ne se passe jamais : 2026
Oui
$440,756 Vol.
$440,756 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$440,756 Vol.
$440,756 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "No" at 66.5% for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting heightened risks of triggers like U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime collapse amid escalating military tensions. Over the past week, U.S. airstrikes intensified with over 200 dynamic operations reported on March 31, including massive fireballs over Isfahan, as President Trump defended actions and threatened ground invasion while claiming regime change despite U.S. intelligence assessments of intact leadership and no imminent collapse. Additional troop deployments signal preparation for escalation, bolstering odds against year-end avoidance of all black swan events, including Republican Senate supermajority post-2026 midterms and Russia-NATO friction.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$440,756Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "No" at 66.5% for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting heightened risks of triggers like U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime collapse amid escalating military tensions. Over the past week, U.S. airstrikes intensified with over 200 dynamic operations reported on March 31, including massive fireballs over Isfahan, as President Trump defended actions and threatened ground invasion while claiming regime change despite U.S. intelligence assessments of intact leadership and no imminent collapse. Additional troop deployments signal preparation for escalation, bolstering odds against year-end avoidance of all black swan events, including Republican Senate supermajority post-2026 midterms and Russia-NATO friction.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$440,756Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 66.5% for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting heightened risks of triggers like U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime collapse amid escalating military tensions. Over the past week, U.S. airstrikes intensified with over 200 dynamic operations reported on March 31, including massive fireballs over Isfahan, as President Trump defended actions and threatened ground invasion while claiming regime change despite U.S. intelligence assessments of intact leadership and no imminent collapse. Additional troop deployments signal preparation for escalation, bolstering odds against year-end avoidance of all black swan events, including Republican Senate supermajority post-2026 midterms and Russia-NATO friction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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