Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 at 67.5%, reflecting no triggering events through mid-May despite geopolitical flashpoints. President Trump remains securely in office, Xi Jinping faces no ouster threats, and Bitcoin holds steadily between $10,000 and $1 million. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets in the Hormuz Strait stopped short of invasion criteria, with President Trump describing them as a "love tap" amid a holding ceasefire, while a Ukraine Victory Day truce on May 9 eased Russia-NATO invasion risks. No major natural disasters like VEI 6+ eruptions or 9.0+ earthquakes have occurred. November 2026 midterms pose the primary risk for a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, though historical base rates favor status quo continuity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRien ne se passe jamais : 2026
Rien ne se passe jamais : 2026
Oui
$556,981 Vol.
$556,981 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$556,981 Vol.
$556,981 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 at 67.5%, reflecting no triggering events through mid-May despite geopolitical flashpoints. President Trump remains securely in office, Xi Jinping faces no ouster threats, and Bitcoin holds steadily between $10,000 and $1 million. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets in the Hormuz Strait stopped short of invasion criteria, with President Trump describing them as a "love tap" amid a holding ceasefire, while a Ukraine Victory Day truce on May 9 eased Russia-NATO invasion risks. No major natural disasters like VEI 6+ eruptions or 9.0+ earthquakes have occurred. November 2026 midterms pose the primary risk for a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, though historical base rates favor status quo continuity.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$556,981Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 at 67.5%, reflecting no triggering events through mid-May despite geopolitical flashpoints. President Trump remains securely in office, Xi Jinping faces no ouster threats, and Bitcoin holds steadily between $10,000 and $1 million. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets in the Hormuz Strait stopped short of invasion criteria, with President Trump describing them as a "love tap" amid a holding ceasefire, while a Ukraine Victory Day truce on May 9 eased Russia-NATO invasion risks. No major natural disasters like VEI 6+ eruptions or 9.0+ earthquakes have occurred. November 2026 midterms pose the primary risk for a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, though historical base rates favor status quo continuity.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$556,981Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 at 67.5%, reflecting no triggering events through mid-May despite geopolitical flashpoints. President Trump remains securely in office, Xi Jinping faces no ouster threats, and Bitcoin holds steadily between $10,000 and $1 million. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets in the Hormuz Strait stopped short of invasion criteria, with President Trump describing them as a "love tap" amid a holding ceasefire, while a Ukraine Victory Day truce on May 9 eased Russia-NATO invasion risks. No major natural disasters like VEI 6+ eruptions or 9.0+ earthquakes have occurred. November 2026 midterms pose the primary risk for a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, though historical base rates favor status quo continuity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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