Traders assign a 71% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting the lack of major geopolitical escalations, U.S. legislative breakthroughs, or significant executive actions in the first five months of the year. Monthly analogs such as Nothing Ever Happens: May resolved to "Nothing" at over 99%, and the newly launched June market shows similarly elevated odds for stability, indicating that scheduled events like midterms preparation, ongoing diplomatic negotiations, and routine agency decisions have not yet produced the type of catalyst that would shift the 2026 resolution. With resolution tied to December 31, 2026, the current pricing captures trader consensus on the absence of transformative developments through mid-year while leaving room for later shifts from elections, policy deadlines, or international developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRien ne se passe jamais : 2026
Rien ne se passe jamais : 2026
Oui
$592,996 Vol.
$592,996 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$592,996 Vol.
$592,996 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 71% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting the lack of major geopolitical escalations, U.S. legislative breakthroughs, or significant executive actions in the first five months of the year. Monthly analogs such as Nothing Ever Happens: May resolved to "Nothing" at over 99%, and the newly launched June market shows similarly elevated odds for stability, indicating that scheduled events like midterms preparation, ongoing diplomatic negotiations, and routine agency decisions have not yet produced the type of catalyst that would shift the 2026 resolution. With resolution tied to December 31, 2026, the current pricing captures trader consensus on the absence of transformative developments through mid-year while leaving room for later shifts from elections, policy deadlines, or international developments.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$592,996Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 71% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting the lack of major geopolitical escalations, U.S. legislative breakthroughs, or significant executive actions in the first five months of the year. Monthly analogs such as Nothing Ever Happens: May resolved to "Nothing" at over 99%, and the newly launched June market shows similarly elevated odds for stability, indicating that scheduled events like midterms preparation, ongoing diplomatic negotiations, and routine agency decisions have not yet produced the type of catalyst that would shift the 2026 resolution. With resolution tied to December 31, 2026, the current pricing captures trader consensus on the absence of transformative developments through mid-year while leaving room for later shifts from elections, policy deadlines, or international developments.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$592,996Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 71% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting the lack of major geopolitical escalations, U.S. legislative breakthroughs, or significant executive actions in the first five months of the year. Monthly analogs such as Nothing Ever Happens: May resolved to "Nothing" at over 99%, and the newly launched June market shows similarly elevated odds for stability, indicating that scheduled events like midterms preparation, ongoing diplomatic negotiations, and routine agency decisions have not yet produced the type of catalyst that would shift the 2026 resolution. With resolution tied to December 31, 2026, the current pricing captures trader consensus on the absence of transformative developments through mid-year while leaving room for later shifts from elections, policy deadlines, or international developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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