Trader consensus on a 70% chance that nothing major disrupts 2026 centers on sustained geopolitical stability through mid-year, with no new large-scale conflicts or economic shocks emerging. Existing tensions, including Russia-Ukraine dynamics and Middle East engagements, have shown limited escalation in recent months, while routine diplomatic calendars advance without triggering resolution criteria. Upcoming events such as Ethiopia's June general election, Armenia's parliamentary vote, South Korea's local contests, and the U.S. midterm cycle in November appear priced in as manageable within established institutions rather than catalysts for abrupt change. Scheduled summits and legislative processes have so far aligned with predictable outcomes, supporting the view that baseline continuity will hold absent unforeseen shocks.