Israel’s airspace faced major disruption after joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning February 28, 2026, which prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the region. This led to an immediate full closure to civilian traffic, grounding flights at Ben Gurion Airport and forcing neighboring states including Jordan, Iraq, and several Gulf nations to impose similar restrictions. Phased, limited reopenings began in early March under tight security controls and hourly flight caps, yet EASA maintained heightened risk advisories for the Tel Aviv FIR through at least June 24, 2026, citing ongoing military activity and threats. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether renewed Iranian responses or Israeli operations could trigger another broad shutdown before scheduled diplomatic or military milestones.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$16,642,425 Vol.
30 juin 2026
30 juin
5%
July 15
7%
July 31
10%
$16,642,425 Vol.
30 juin
$2,508,624 Vol.
5%
July 15
$2,933 Vol.
7%
July 31
$498 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace faced major disruption after joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning February 28, 2026, which prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the region. This led to an immediate full closure to civilian traffic, grounding flights at Ben Gurion Airport and forcing neighboring states including Jordan, Iraq, and several Gulf nations to impose similar restrictions. Phased, limited reopenings began in early March under tight security controls and hourly flight caps, yet EASA maintained heightened risk advisories for the Tel Aviv FIR through at least June 24, 2026, citing ongoing military activity and threats. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether renewed Iranian responses or Israeli operations could trigger another broad shutdown before scheduled diplomatic or military milestones.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volume
$16,642,425Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace faced major disruption after joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning February 28, 2026, which prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the region. This led to an immediate full closure to civilian traffic, grounding flights at Ben Gurion Airport and forcing neighboring states including Jordan, Iraq, and several Gulf nations to impose similar restrictions. Phased, limited reopenings began in early March under tight security controls and hourly flight caps, yet EASA maintained heightened risk advisories for the Tel Aviv FIR through at least June 24, 2026, citing ongoing military activity and threats. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether renewed Iranian responses or Israeli operations could trigger another broad shutdown before scheduled diplomatic or military milestones.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,642,425Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel’s airspace faced major disruption after joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning February 28, 2026, which prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the region. This led to an immediate full closure to civilian traffic, grounding flights at Ben Gurion Airport and forcing neighboring states including Jordan, Iraq, and several Gulf nations to impose similar restrictions. Phased, limited reopenings began in early March under tight security controls and hourly flight caps, yet EASA maintained heightened risk advisories for the Tel Aviv FIR through at least June 24, 2026, citing ongoing military activity and threats. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether renewed Iranian responses or Israeli operations could trigger another broad shutdown before scheduled diplomatic or military milestones.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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